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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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 Posted: Tue May 06, 2014 2:16 pm Post subject: |
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| Leon wrote: |
| If Russia is not careful it will push other countries into looking for alternative sources of energy |
This is likely. Russia will have buyers in Asia, but it could lose its petro-leverage over Europe. |
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Titus
Joined: 19 May 2012
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| Posted: Tue May 06, 2014 5:13 pm Post subject: |
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| Leon wrote: |
It can, but Russian firms are comparatively backwards, and cutting itself off from international trade is not good policy.
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Russia is not going to have comparatively competitive firms without protectionism. If the domestic market can use Microsoft it will. If the domestic market is forced via protectionism to use domestic firms, market pressure will force and improvement in quality (provided sufficient human capital and financial resources, both of which Russia has). Russia is going to be plagued with massive problems for the foreseeable future. Protectionism is a good starting point for repair.
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| My position has been, from the beginning that it doesn't matter. Whether you consider it a talking point or not, doesn't mean that voting irregularities do or do not exist. I'm just happy that this particular piece of Russian propaganda can now be discarded. |
I know that is your position. The Russian propaganda can not be discarded. The handover of Crimea has been smooth and peaceful. There is no evidence that the people there are fired up about it.
If the Russians were to try and absorb a large portion of Ukraine there would be major problems.
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| I wonder what if Russia actually wants Eastern Ukraine. |
There is no evidence it does. Ideally they'd like Ukraine included in the customs union. Russians see Ukrainians are half-retarded little brothers. They're very condescending and dismissive of them. If you put three Russians in a room together they'll eventually start making jokes about Ukraine, the limits of the Ukrainian language, the backwardness of Ukrainian culture, etc. I have seen no evidence that leads me to believe the Russians are secretly working to absorb the east. ...if it falls in their lap, they'll probably take it.
This is interesting:
http://lifenews.ru/news/132722
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Leader of the "South-East" and former candidate for the presidency of Ukraine Oleg Tsarev told LifeNews about how will be the federalization of Ukraine.
- I'm in the Luhansk region, and yesterday we were all gathered together deputies of the "old guard", "new wave", as well as businessmen. Introduced them to the People's Council and took a unanimous decision: to hold a referendum on May 11. We have already prepared a question that should be answered residents of Lugansk and Donetsk: "Do you support the independence of the Lugansk region and Donetsk region?" And if people will support, we obtain two degrees: Luhansk and Donetsk Republic. We hope that the western part of Ukraine will support us.
According to the leader Tsarev, the new state can be based on the Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Leader of the "South-East" said that Kyiv authorities are already doing everything to frustrate the plans. |
^ From Google Translate.
The south and east may try to form their own state called Novorossia.
Last edited by Titus on Tue May 06, 2014 5:18 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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maximmm
Joined: 01 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Tue May 06, 2014 5:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Titus wrote: |
| Russians see Ukrainians are half-retarded little brothers. They're very condescending and dismissive of them. If you put three Russians in a room together they'll eventually start making jokes about Ukraine, the limits of the Ukrainian language, the backwardness of Ukrainian culture, etc. |
OK, that's one of the dumbest things I've read in a while on this forum. How long did it take you to come up with that? |
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Titus
Joined: 19 May 2012
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| Posted: Tue May 06, 2014 5:21 pm Post subject: |
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| It took me noticing that, when I'm in Saint Petersburg, the conversation invariable includes bashing Ukrainians. Especially about the Russian perception that the Ukrainian language is best suited for a farmer that has never seen a hill or lake. |
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Titus
Joined: 19 May 2012
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Tue May 06, 2014 6:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Titus wrote: |
| Leon wrote: |
It can, but Russian firms are comparatively backwards, and cutting itself off from international trade is not good policy.
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If the Russians were to try and absorb a large portion of Ukraine there would be major problems.
| Quote: |
| I wonder what if Russia actually wants Eastern Ukraine. |
There is no evidence it does. Ideally they'd like Ukraine included in the customs union. Russians see Ukrainians are half-retarded little brothers. They're very condescending and dismissive of them. If you put three Russians in a room together they'll eventually start making jokes about Ukraine, the limits of the Ukrainian language, the backwardness of Ukrainian culture, etc. I have seen no evidence that leads me to believe the Russians are secretly working to absorb the east. ...if it falls in their lap, they'll probably take it.
This is interesting:
http://lifenews.ru/news/132722
| Quote: |
Leader of the "South-East" and former candidate for the presidency of Ukraine Oleg Tsarev told LifeNews about how will be the federalization of Ukraine.
- I'm in the Luhansk region, and yesterday we were all gathered together deputies of the "old guard", "new wave", as well as businessmen. Introduced them to the People's Council and took a unanimous decision: to hold a referendum on May 11. We have already prepared a question that should be answered residents of Lugansk and Donetsk: "Do you support the independence of the Lugansk region and Donetsk region?" And if people will support, we obtain two degrees: Luhansk and Donetsk Republic. We hope that the western part of Ukraine will support us.
According to the leader Tsarev, the new state can be based on the Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Leader of the "South-East" said that Kyiv authorities are already doing everything to frustrate the plans. |
^ From Google Translate.
The south and east may try to form their own state called Novorossia. |
This makes me wonder what Russia's end game is, or if they have thought that far, or honestly if they will be able to control it effectively, same for Kiev. I wonder at this point how much passion is control how things are unfolding, or even how local gangsters and businessmen are behind events as compared to Moscow and Kiev, let alone Washington. Once one side is made up of neo-nazis and the other is waving pictures of, and building monuments for, Stalin, you start playing with dangers ideas and feelings that can be hard to put away when they are no longer strategically useful.
If the breakaway regions form their own pariah states only recognized by Moscow that really would be the worst situation for them. They would be better off as part of Ukraine, or Russia, than a breakaway province, regardless of how they feel about nationalism or identity or whatever.
Interesting time to move to Russia anyways. |
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Chaparrastique
Joined: 01 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Tue May 06, 2014 7:03 pm Post subject: |
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| maximmm wrote: |
| Titus wrote: |
| Russians see Ukrainians are half-retarded little brothers. They're very condescending and dismissive of them. If you put three Russians in a room together they'll eventually start making jokes about Ukraine, the limits of the Ukrainian language, the backwardness of Ukrainian culture, etc. |
OK, that's one of the dumbest things I've read in a while on this forum. How long did it take you to come up with that? |
dunno, seems pretty normal.
"advanced" nations tend to deride their less illustrious neighbours the world over.
Engliand make jokes about the irish. Americans probably make jokes about Canadians. |
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maximmm
Joined: 01 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Tue May 06, 2014 8:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Leon wrote: |
This makes me wonder what Russia's end game is, or if they have thought that far, or honestly if they will be able to control it effectively, same for Kiev. I wonder at this point how much passion is control how things are unfolding, or even how local gangsters and businessmen are behind events as compared to Moscow and Kiev, let alone Washington. Once one side is made up of neo-nazis and the other is waving pictures of, and building monuments for, Stalin, you start playing with dangers ideas and feelings that can be hard to put away when they are no longer strategically useful.
If the breakaway regions form their own pariah states only recognized by Moscow that really would be the worst situation for them. They would be better off as part of Ukraine, or Russia, than a breakaway province, regardless of how they feel about nationalism or identity or whatever.
Interesting time to move to Russia anyways. |
That may lead to a Germany-like split after the WWII.
On the other hand, if Ukraine disrupts referendum or attacks post-referendum, it may lead to Korea-like war followed by the same split.
In either scenario, it seems likely that the Europe-supported part of Ukraine will benefit, while the Russia-backed one will suffer economically (I'm just looking at how well the West-supported Germany and Korea did after the splits with their counterparts). Then again - the world we live in today is very different, so that comparison may be invalid. |
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Titus
Joined: 19 May 2012
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| Posted: Wed May 07, 2014 4:08 am Post subject: |
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The New York Times:
Kristof:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/17/opinion/in-ukraine-seeking-us-aid.html?ref=nicholasdkristof&_r=1
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| KIEV, Ukraine — For decades, Ukrainians have been starved, oppressed and bullied by Russians, |
The Holodomor happened while Jews were in charge of the Soviet Union. Not Russians. This is an enormous feat of chutzpa. Jews bullied and starved Ukrainians and now Kirsof, who is Jewish, if trying to put blame on ethnic Russians. Incredible gall.
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| and, with Russia now inciting instability that could lead to an invasion and dismemberment of eastern Ukraine, plenty of brave Ukrainians here say they’ve had it and are ready to go bear-hunting. |
Bear-hunting? Like this: http://tinyurl.com/n4jmatn
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| If they could just equip themselves. |
America needs to give them guns, like America gave Al Queda guns in Libya, which worked out pretty well there!
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| Usually in international affairs, there’s a good deal of gray, but what is happening in Ukraine is pretty black and white. |
I agree.
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| President Vladimir Putin of Russia warns that Ukraine is on the brink of civil war. But the chaos in eastern cities is his own creation, in part by sending provocateurs across the border. |
There is no evidence of this. None. Like WMD's in Iraq.
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| It’s not clear how many of the troublemakers in the east are Russian security agents and how many are Ukrainians who want to remain in Russia’s orbit, but it’s reasonably clear that there are plenty of both. |
No. It isn't.
Bah I can't even finish it. The NYT is such a piece of shit. |
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Titus
Joined: 19 May 2012
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| Posted: Wed May 07, 2014 4:16 am Post subject: |
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http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/25/russia-rosneft-oil-india-idINDEEA2O0AU20140325
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(Reuters) - Rosneft (ROSN.MM), the world's top listed oil producer by output, may join forces with Indian state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC.NS) to supply oil to India over the long term, the Russian state-controlled company said on Tuesday.
Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, an ally of President Vladimir Putin, travelled to India on Sunday, part of a wider Asian trip to shore up ties with eastern allies at a time when Moscow is being shunned by the West over its annexation of Crimea.
With EU nations threatening to cut their reliance on Russian oil and gas, Russian officials have started to look East.
Rosneft said it had also agreed with ONGC they may join forces in Rosneft's yet-to-be built liquefied natural gas plant in the far east of Russia to the benefit of Indian consumers. |
I assume Russia is nervous about markets for her gas/oil and this is encouraging her to look elsewhere with more enthusiasm. I don't think the Cold War is a good analogy, but the uni-polar moment is probably behind us. |
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Chaparrastique
Joined: 01 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Wed May 07, 2014 7:08 am Post subject: |
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Once again putin has done the reverse of what the western media predicted.
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Russian stocks and bonds rallied the most in seven weeks and the ruble gained as President Vladimir Putin said his country pulled back troops from Ukraine’s border and he urged separatists to delay a referendum to ease tension.
Putin called for postponing referendums in Ukraine’s south and east and said the country’s presidential election scheduled for later this month was a step in right direction.
“Let’s try to analyze the situation and look for ways out of this crisis,” Putin said at the start of today’s meeting with Burkhalter.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-07/russian-bonds-climb-as-fresh-talks-call-attracts-bargain-hunters.html
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the onus in on the US now to calm the situation via their puppets in kiev. |
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maximmm
Joined: 01 Feb 2008
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:21 am Post subject: |
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| Chaparrastique wrote: |
Once again putin has done the reverse of what the western media predicted.
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Russian stocks and bonds rallied the most in seven weeks and the ruble gained as President Vladimir Putin said his country pulled back troops from Ukraine’s border and he urged separatists to delay a referendum to ease tension.
Putin called for postponing referendums in Ukraine’s south and east and said the country’s presidential election scheduled for later this month was a step in right direction.
“Let’s try to analyze the situation and look for ways out of this crisis,” Putin said at the start of today’s meeting with Burkhalter.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-07/russian-bonds-climb-as-fresh-talks-call-attracts-bargain-hunters.html
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the onus in on the US now to calm the situation via their puppets in kiev. |
I feel pretty certain that if anything the government in Kiev is using the U.S. more than the other way around. Anyways this is a good sign. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:17 am Post subject: |
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Looks like Obama's threat of looming sanctions worked.
*ducks* |
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Chaparrastique
Joined: 01 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Wed May 07, 2014 5:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
Looks like Obama's threat of looming sanctions worked.
*ducks* |
Its more the case that Russia was never interested in invading Ukraine in the first place.
Nato/ US/ EU is a greedy imperialistic land-grabber, so they assumed Russia must be the same. |
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