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Sector7G
Joined: 24 May 2008
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 Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2014 1:01 pm Post subject: |
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| misher wrote: |
| Well I gotta give the Red Devils a little credit. THey fought back with 2 goals. Now 4-2. |
Agreed! A valiant effort in the second half. |
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r2b2ct
Joined: 14 Jun 2013
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| Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2014 3:55 pm Post subject: |
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OMFG USA
fun game though |
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Sector7G
Joined: 24 May 2008
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| Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2014 4:04 pm Post subject: |
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| Damn!!! So Close! |
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r2b2ct
Joined: 14 Jun 2013
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| Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2014 4:17 pm Post subject: |
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| The funny thing is, before this game I was hoping for a draw. But after being up 2-1 seconds before victory and then it turns out to be a draw, it feels like a loss. |
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catman
Joined: 18 Jul 2004
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| Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2014 4:21 pm Post subject: |
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| US still probably makes it through to the next round unless they get blown out by Germany and Portugal blows out Ghana. |
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jvalmer
Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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| Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2014 4:27 pm Post subject: |
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| misher wrote: |
Bye bye S. Korea.
3 goals by Algeria in 15 minutes. There is still a whole half to play but judging by the way they're playing I'd say it's time for S. Korea to pack it in. If they were playing a tier 1-2 team I'd understand the beat down but while Algeria isn't that bad, they aren't very strong either.
0 shots
0 shots on goal at the half.
Christ.
The S. Korean side must be incredibly weak. They have one of the easiest groups in the tournament and will probably exit with a draw and 2 losses. Quite pathetic.
At least, from what I've heard, S Korean fans that actually know soccer weren't expecting a lot from this young squad. |
Don't count SK out yet. Belgium is already in, so very likely they won't want to risk too much to get injured. As long as they aren't embarrassed, and all the teams in Group G are tough anyways. And maybe the Belgium's have some kind of anti-Russia, or Muslim, thing going.
The reason FIFA schedules the last two group games at the same time is so teams, theoretically, go all out. In past World Cups if one teams was already in the next round, they'd play a pretty lousy game. Can't imagine how 'exciting' it would be if both teams were in the next round before the 3rd game.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Germany_v_Austria_(1982)
I guess the players take 'friendly' and 'sportsmanship' to a new level. |
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radcon
Joined: 23 May 2011
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| Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2014 9:51 pm Post subject: |
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| If he Germans play their best next game, the US will be going home I fear. Both the Us and Ghana will have four points but Ghana will probably go through on differential. Really bizarre system especially to American sensibilities. Head to head should always be the first tie breaker in sport. |
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Sector7G
Joined: 24 May 2008
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| Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 4:04 am Post subject: |
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| radcon wrote: |
| If he Germans play their best next game, the US will be going home I fear. Both the Us and Ghana will have four points but Ghana will probably go through on differential. Really bizarre system especially to American sensibilities. Head to head should always be the first tie breaker in sport. |
But as I'm sure you know, those four points are predicated on Ghana beating Portugal, which is hardly a sure thing. If Portugal wins, US is pretty much in, unless they blow out Ghana and Germany blows out US, as catman pointed out.
Here are the latest scenarios and odds, which I think are more accurate than the last one I posted.
How the U.S. can qualify for the last 16
http://www.espnfc.us/fifa-world-cup/story/1904117/how-the-us-can-qualify-for-the-last-16
U.S. Scenarios
- Win/draw vs. Germany
- Loss and Portugal-Ghana draw
- Loss and win tiebreaker vs. Portugal-Ghana winner
Updated Soccer Power Index odds to advance:
(All the group percentages available at fivethirtyeight.com)
- Germany: 99.7 percent
- United States: 75.8 percent
- Ghana: 19.1 percent
- Portugal: 5.4 percent
Tiebreakers
If the United States loses, Ghana would qualify instead if either game is decided by a margin of two goals or more. If the U.S. loses by one goal, Ghana would need to win by two goals or be involved in a higher-scoring one-goal win. For instance, a 1-0 scoreline in both games would put the United States through on head-to-head. So, if the U.S. loses 1-0, then Ghana must win 2-1 to qualify on goals scored.
To surpass the U.S., Portugal will need a goal-difference swing of five (head-to-head is level). So for instance, Portugal would need to win 3-0 and U.S. lose 2-0, among other equivalent scorelines. The teams will draw lots if goal difference is identical (this would happen with a 3-0 U.S. defeat and a 2-0 Portugal win, for example). |
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catman
Joined: 18 Jul 2004
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| Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:21 pm Post subject: |
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Brazil vs Chile and Netherlands vs Mexico in the round of 16.
I would hate the be the ref in any of the Netherlands games. Their games tend to be dirty. |
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Sector7G
Joined: 24 May 2008
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| Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:36 pm Post subject: |
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| I would hate to have the refs from the Mexico - Croatia match. They missed two different handballs. On one the Croatian player used both hands to stop an almost sure goal. |
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tatertot
Joined: 21 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2014 1:07 am Post subject: |
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| Sector7G wrote: |
| radcon wrote: |
| If he Germans play their best next game, the US will be going home I fear. Both the Us and Ghana will have four points but Ghana will probably go through on differential. Really bizarre system especially to American sensibilities. Head to head should always be the first tie breaker in sport. |
But as I'm sure you know, those four points are predicated on Ghana beating Portugal, which is hardly a sure thing. If Portugal wins, US is pretty much in, unless they blow out Ghana and Germany blows out US, as catman pointed out.
Here are the latest scenarios and odds, which I think are more accurate than the last one I posted.
How the U.S. can qualify for the last 16
http://www.espnfc.us/fifa-world-cup/story/1904117/how-the-us-can-qualify-for-the-last-16
U.S. Scenarios
- Win/draw vs. Germany
- Loss and Portugal-Ghana draw
- Loss and win tiebreaker vs. Portugal-Ghana winner
Updated Soccer Power Index odds to advance:
(All the group percentages available at fivethirtyeight.com)
- Germany: 99.7 percent
- United States: 75.8 percent
- Ghana: 19.1 percent
- Portugal: 5.4 percent
Tiebreakers
If the United States loses, Ghana would qualify instead if either game is decided by a margin of two goals or more. If the U.S. loses by one goal, Ghana would need to win by two goals or be involved in a higher-scoring one-goal win. For instance, a 1-0 scoreline in both games would put the United States through on head-to-head. So, if the U.S. loses 1-0, then Ghana must win 2-1 to qualify on goals scored.
To surpass the U.S., Portugal will need a goal-difference swing of five (head-to-head is level). So for instance, Portugal would need to win 3-0 and U.S. lose 2-0, among other equivalent scorelines. The teams will draw lots if goal difference is identical (this would happen with a 3-0 U.S. defeat and a 2-0 Portugal win, for example). |
I think 99.7% is a little low for the German team  |
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Sector7G
Joined: 24 May 2008
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| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2014 10:42 am Post subject: |
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Did Luis Suarez just bite someone again?
http://www.sbnation.com/soccer/2014/6/24/5838594/did-luis-suarez-just-bite-someone-again
For the third time in his career, it looks as though Suarez has bitten an opposition player. At this point it is pure speculation, but in the 79th minute of Uruguay’s final Group G game against Italy, Suarez bowed his head into Italian defender Chiellini and it looks as though he sunk his teeth into Chiellini’s shoulder.
Seriously, knowing the cameras are watching? He was just in the process of repairing his image...The dude must not be able to control himself. . |
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Sector7G
Joined: 24 May 2008
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| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2014 1:14 pm Post subject: |
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Chiellini wants FIFA action over Suarez
http://www.espnfc.us/fifa-world-cup/story/1909289/italys-giorgio-chiellini-demands-fifa-action-over-uruguay-forward-luis-suarezs-bite-in-world-cup-clash
CAN LUIS SUAREZ BE BANNED?
Yes. Suarez could still be subject to punishment from FIFA's Disciplinary Committee, who are responsible for:
a) sanctioning serious infringements which have escaped the match officials' attention;
b) rectifying obvious errors in the referee's disciplinary decisions;
c) extending the duration of a match suspension incurred automatically by an expulsion (cf. art 18, par. 4);
d) pronouncing additional sanctions, such as a fine.
Precedents: 1994: Italy's Mauro Tassotti (elbow) - retroactively suspended for eight games. 2013: Josep Simunic (facist salute to crowd) banned for 10 games. FIFA's Code. » |
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radcon
Joined: 23 May 2011
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| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2014 1:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Sector7G wrote: |
| radcon wrote: |
| If he Germans play their best next game, the US will be going home I fear. Both the Us and Ghana will have four points but Ghana will probably go through on differential. Really bizarre system especially to American sensibilities. Head to head should always be the first tie breaker in sport. |
But as I'm sure you know, those four points are predicated on Ghana beating Portugal, which is hardly a sure thing. If Portugal wins, US is pretty much in, unless they blow out Ghana and Germany blows out US, as catman pointed out.
Here are the latest scenarios and odds, which I think are more accurate than the last one I posted.
How the U.S. can qualify for the last 16
http://www.espnfc.us/fifa-world-cup/story/1904117/how-the-us-can-qualify-for-the-last-16
U.S. Scenarios
- Win/draw vs. Germany
- Loss and Portugal-Ghana draw
- Loss and win tiebreaker vs. Portugal-Ghana winner
Updated Soccer Power Index odds to advance:
(All the group percentages available at fivethirtyeight.com)
- Germany: 99.7 percent
- United States: 75.8 percent
- Ghana: 19.1 percent
- Portugal: 5.4 percent
Tiebreakers
If the United States loses, Ghana would qualify instead if either game is decided by a margin of two goals or more. If the U.S. loses by one goal, Ghana would need to win by two goals or be involved in a higher-scoring one-goal win. For instance, a 1-0 scoreline in both games would put the United States through on head-to-head. So, if the U.S. loses 1-0, then Ghana must win 2-1 to qualify on goals scored.
To surpass the U.S., Portugal will need a goal-difference swing of five (head-to-head is level). So for instance, Portugal would need to win 3-0 and U.S. lose 2-0, among other equivalent scorelines. The teams will draw lots if goal difference is identical (this would happen with a 3-0 U.S. defeat and a 2-0 Portugal win, for example). |
Those odds of potential scenarios are way off and don't meet the eyeball test. Portugal has looked very bad an Ghana has looked good. Plus Portugal has very little chance to move on. This equals no motivation for Portugal- add in an early Ghana goal and then Portugal has zero motivation for the rest of the match. A 2-1 Ghana win is not an unlikely outcome. Add a 1-0 German win, also not unlikely, and poof the US is out. I think this scenario has a greater then 25% chance as outlined in the analysis you posted. |
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Sector7G
Joined: 24 May 2008
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| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:48 pm Post subject: |
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| radcon wrote: |
Those odds of potential scenarios are way off and don't meet the eyeball test. Portugal has looked very bad an Ghana has looked good. Plus Portugal has very little chance to move on. This equals no motivation for Portugal- add in an early Ghana goal and then Portugal has zero motivation for the rest of the match. A 2-1 Ghana win is not an unlikely outcome. Add a 1-0 German win, also not unlikely, and poof the US is out. I think this scenario has a greater then 25% chance as outlined in the analysis you posted. |
I don't totally discount what you're saying, especially since I believe you were correct in pointing out the flaw of the previous analysis.
But now you're talking about motivation, which is a lot harder to gauge. Do you really think Portugal, definitely one of the top ten teams in the world entering the tournament, wants to end up last in their group? Isn't that motivation enough to go out and give it their best, for pride if for no other reason?
And what about Germany? They are pretty much assured of advancing to the knockout stage. What is their motivation going to be like against the US? Who knows, they may very well rest some of their starters in the second half.
But this is what makes the sport interesting, and if we lived in the same city I would bet you a beer you're wrong.  |
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