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cmxc
Joined: 19 May 2008
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 Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2014 3:58 pm Post subject: Will Korea's ESL market implode? |
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An Aug 6 article from the JoongAng newspaper shows that the number of elementary students in the city of Seoul has plunged from 830,000 in 1995 to 458,000 in 2014.
If you do the math, that's a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of -3.1% since 1995.
Clearly, with the number of children plummeting, the need for English language instruction, and education services will also plummet.
If this CAGR continues, within 10 years we should expect another 100,000 students to disappear from Seoul.
Does this mean that ESL in Korea in its current glory will finally meet its demise?
Schools merge after a decline in students
http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=2993064&cloc=joongangdaily|home|newslist2 |
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ttompatz
Joined: 05 Sep 2005
Location: Kwangju, South Korea
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| Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2014 4:46 pm Post subject: |
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This phenomenon is not unique to Korea but pretty much the same across most of the developed world.
How will that impact EFL?
Far less than government policy in regards to the formal (public school systems) or informal (hagwons) sectors. With the wave of the budget pen a POE can impact 1000 jobs in a heartbeat. With the bang of a gavel the MOE can impact 10,000 jobs in the private sector.
The loss of 100 thousand students over a decade, in terms of classes and jobs means a reduction of 100-120 NETS in the public school system and perhaps a similar number in the informal sector.
Budget issues will have a far greater impact.
The impact is actually less pronounced in rural areas where school consolidation is less of an economic issue and more of a political one (schools are often the center of a rural community and the opposition to closing is far more pronounced than school consolidations in the (7) big cities like Seoul, Busan, Daegue, Incheon, etc).
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Chaparrastique
Joined: 01 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2014 5:27 pm Post subject: Re: Will Korea's ESL market implode? |
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| cmxc wrote: |
| the number of elementary students in the city of Seoul has plunged from 830,000 in 1995 to 458,000 in 2014. |
Great. Less noise. |
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PRagic
Joined: 24 Feb 2006
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| Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 8:48 pm Post subject: |
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People have been worrying about the state of ESL teaching market since I moved over...in 1993. And there are people on this board who have been here longer than me who will probably second the notion going back even further!
If you get a job, you're set. If you lose a job, you get another one. |
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Chaparrastique
Joined: 01 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2014 3:47 am Post subject: |
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| PRagic wrote: |
| People have been worrying about the state of ESL teaching market since I moved over...in 1993. |
Today the Pope visited Korea and made a speech in ENGLISH.
Koreans are constantly faced with reminders of how important this language is internationally. |
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ChrisPK
Joined: 07 Aug 2014
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| Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2014 4:41 am Post subject: |
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| Chaparrastique wrote: |
| PRagic wrote: |
| People have been worrying about the state of ESL teaching market since I moved over...in 1993. |
Today the Pope visited Korea and made a speech in ENGLISH.
Koreans are constantly faced with reminders of how important this language is internationally. |
I don't understand why he made a speech in English as his English pronunciation is not good at all. He was hard to understand. He needs to take some ESL classes. |
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yodanole
Joined: 02 Mar 2003
Location: La Florida
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| Posted: Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:15 am Post subject: |
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| Yes. No. Maybe. Could be. Perhaps. But, on the other hand..... |
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Chaparrastique
Joined: 01 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 1:24 am Post subject: |
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| yodanole wrote: |
| Yes. No. Maybe. Could be. Perhaps. But, on the other hand..... |
Afraid to make generalizations?
Excellent. You may join the apologists. |
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happiness
Joined: 04 Sep 2010
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 4:59 pm Post subject: |
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| PRagic wrote: |
People have been worrying about the state of ESL teaching market since I moved over...in 1993. And there are people on this board who have been here longer than me who will probably second the notion going back even further!
If you get a job, you're set. If you lose a job, you get another one. |
14 years here. Yep, thats it. The apostile, etc is a bit of a pain but if youre here, and have a clean shirt (and sometimes not), you can get a job, less kids or more kids, there are jobs. |
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KimchiNinja
Joined: 01 May 2012
Location: Gangnam
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:24 pm Post subject: Re: Will Korea's ESL market implode? |
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| cmxc wrote: |
An Aug 6 article from the JoongAng newspaper shows that the number of elementary students in the city of Seoul has plunged from 830,000 in 1995 to 458,000 in 2014.
If you do the math, that's a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of -3.1% since 1995. |
I get a CAGR of -3.2% (19 years). But I applaud your use of CAGR on Dave's none the less. |
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byrddogs
Joined: 19 Jun 2009
Location: Shanghai
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:29 pm Post subject: Re: Will Korea's ESL market implode? |
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| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| cmxc wrote: |
An Aug 6 article from the JoongAng newspaper shows that the number of elementary students in the city of Seoul has plunged from 830,000 in 1995 to 458,000 in 2014.
If you do the math, that's a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of -3.1% since 1995. |
I get a CAGR of -3.2% (19 years). But I applaud your use of CAGR on Dave's none the less. |
You are bored again. |
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KimchiNinja
Joined: 01 May 2012
Location: Gangnam
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:14 pm Post subject: Re: Will Korea's ESL market implode? |
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| byrddogs wrote: |
| You are bored again. |
No, because I had math to check. |
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byrddogs
Joined: 19 Jun 2009
Location: Shanghai
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:16 pm Post subject: Re: Will Korea's ESL market implode? |
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| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| byrddogs wrote: |
| You are bored again. |
No, because I had math to check. |
Sure thing, pal. |
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KimchiNinja
Joined: 01 May 2012
Location: Gangnam
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:20 pm Post subject: Re: Will Korea's ESL market implode? |
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| byrddogs wrote: |
| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| byrddogs wrote: |
| You are bored again. |
No, because I had math to check. |
Sure thing, pal. |
What does that mean?
I just checked the math as you can see, it happened. Are you on drugs?? |
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byrddogs
Joined: 19 Jun 2009
Location: Shanghai
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:22 pm Post subject: Re: Will Korea's ESL market implode? |
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| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| byrddogs wrote: |
| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| byrddogs wrote: |
| You are bored again. |
No, because I had math to check. |
Sure thing, pal. |
What does that mean?
I just checked the math as you can see, it happened. Are you on drugs?? |
I can see what you did. Everyone sees it. Do you do drugs? If so, which ones are the best? |
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