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hubbahubba
Joined: 31 May 2008
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 Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 3:52 am Post subject: Re: Hi |
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| wonkavite62 wrote: |
| This might be the thin end of the wedge-or then again it might not. One of the things I believed about ESL (up to 2010) was that demand in places like China and South Korea was high, partly because there were not enough teachers to go round. Certainly that would be true when U.S. unemployment is low. But the great recession changed this. I left Korea because I found (a) the public schools were really cutting back on staff (b) hagwons especially in Seoul discriminate and exclude teachers for silly reasons and (c) the only available jobs were in small towns on the east coast, or islands. That was my experience. If China is now tightening up controls so much, that may be because they believe a limited supply of teachers has now become an inexhaustible flood in Beijing. So recruiters can play games, cherry pick and so on. If they get too demanding and put up too many barriers then some people may question the value of working abroad in the first place. After all it COSTS MONEY to get here, and we are often taking a risk by coming abroad. Under certain circumstances, teaching in a high school in the U.K. would begin to seem more attractive than working abroad. |
Yes, it's a worry, if you are 1. If you suck/lazy as a teacher 2. You're "ugging fugly" 3. Have no interpersonal skills whatsoever...For the rest of us that posess at leat one of the above...Korea is just fine. Try Vietnam, or some other palce..good luck |
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GENO123
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
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| Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 7:16 pm Post subject: |
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| ESL in Korea is broken. The upcoming devaluation of the won ( just look across the pond ) should not be considered the icing on the cake because esl in Korea pretty much already went bust even before. Korea= low salary. |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2014 6:41 pm Post subject: |
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| GENO123 wrote: |
| ESL in Korea is broken. The upcoming devaluation of the won ( just look across the pond ) should not be considered the icing on the cake because esl in Korea pretty much already went bust even before. Korea= low salary. |
?? The won has been slowly rising for the past year. Just needs to get up a bit more, which may just do over the next several months to get back to historical highs. Would have had my debts paid off had it not been for the 5 to 6 year crash. |
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GENO123
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
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| Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 1:17 am Post subject: |
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| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| GENO123 wrote: |
| ESL in Korea is broken. The upcoming devaluation of the won ( just look across the pond ) should not be considered the icing on the cake because esl in Korea pretty much already went bust even before. Korea= low salary. |
?? The won has been slowly rising for the past year. Just needs to get up a bit more, which may just do over the next several months to get back to historical highs. Would have had my debts paid off had it not been for the 5 to 6 year crash. |
Might wanna look at what id going on in japanI f anyone noticed the won has started to weaken again. |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 4:06 am Post subject: |
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| GENO123 wrote: |
| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| GENO123 wrote: |
| ESL in Korea is broken. The upcoming devaluation of the won ( just look across the pond ) should not be considered the icing on the cake because esl in Korea pretty much already went bust even before. Korea= low salary. |
?? The won has been slowly rising for the past year. Just needs to get up a bit more, which may just do over the next several months to get back to historical highs. Would have had my debts paid off had it not been for the 5 to 6 year crash. |
Might wanna look at what id going on in japanI f anyone noticed the won has started to weaken again. |
Won is always up and down day to day, but longer term trend is up, expecially over the past year.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=KRW&to=CAD&view=1Y
Ten year trend.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=KRW&to=CAD&view=10Y |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 4:10 am Post subject: |
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Won only reached a 1:1 ratio last December and then started going above that through this year. A very very slow and steady climb with fluctuations, but it has been rising. Some world crash could send it crashing down again next year. So, I guess you never know. If the Yen is down it's because Abenomics is a joke. Those guys think they can spend themselves to prosperity.
But, I don't teach in Japan. Who cares about them? |
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GENO123
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
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| Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 4:42 am Post subject: |
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| You think Korea will be okay with a Lexus being less than a Kia? How does that play out then? |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 4:37 pm Post subject: |
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| GENO123 wrote: |
| You think Korea will be okay with a Lexus being less than a Kia? How does that play out then? |
A lower exchange rate may be good in the short term for exporting, but is terrible if you have to import raw materials to make those products in the long run. Markets will react or rebel to central governments attempts to intervene in currency markets. Effects are always short term. |
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GENO123
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
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| Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 10:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| GENO123 wrote: |
| You think Korea will be okay with a Lexus being less than a Kia? How does that play out then? |
A lower exchange rate may be good in the short term for exporting, but is terrible if you have to import raw materials to make those products in the long run. Markets will react or rebel to central governments attempts to intervene in currency markets. Effects are always short term. |
Not this time. And the only reaction threre will be from korea will be a massive weakening of the won. I can not belive everyone thinks that it is just business as usual still . |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 1:11 am Post subject: |
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| GENO123 wrote: |
| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| GENO123 wrote: |
| You think Korea will be okay with a Lexus being less than a Kia? How does that play out then? |
A lower exchange rate may be good in the short term for exporting, but is terrible if you have to import raw materials to make those products in the long run. Markets will react or rebel to central governments attempts to intervene in currency markets. Effects are always short term. |
Not this time. And the only reaction threre will be from korea will be a massive weakening of the won. I can not belive everyone thinks that it is just business as usual still . |
The only way to do that is to effectively keep interest rates lower than what the market thinks they should be or to create a huge loss of confidence in your economy so investors flee and drop the won. If there is a recovery in the US of A - IF- then investors would flock there and drive up the dollar compared to other currencies. The tune may change when quantitative easing ends and if interest rates rise by the US Fed causing folks to be less eager to seek money opportunities elsewhere.
But either way, pay off as much debt as you can while the won is higher. The 2008 to 2013 period absolutely sucked for paying the bills back home. I try to plow as much as I can with a better exchange rate and hope it can continue for some time yet. We'll see, I guess. |
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GENO123
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
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| Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 1:20 am Post subject: |
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The answer is how much do you think the yen will drop? I dont think anyone on this board appriciates the extent of what is gkoing to happpen soon
I know one thing Korea will not just stand there when eveything in Japan is one third the price of anything Korean. It would wipe out Korea as we know it.
It is not about the us recovering it is about what is going to happen in Japan. |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 1:34 am Post subject: |
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| GENO123 wrote: |
The answer is how much do you think the yen will drop? I dont think anyone on this board appriciates the extent of what is gkoing to happpen soon
I know one thing Korea will not just stand there when eveything in Japan is one third the price of anything Korean. It would wipe out Korea as we know it.
It is not about the us recovering it is about what is going to happen in Japan. |
I assume Korean interest rates are already low. So, I don't know if they could cut them anymore to bring down the currency. Any attempts by the Korean government to intervene in the markets by using up currency reserves will only have a short term effect. (Historicaally, it's effects have never had a lasting effect beyond a few days.)
If the US and other countries raise their rates and Korea keeps theirs low, then perhaps the Won could stay down. But interest rate hike by most governments are at least a year away. The Korean Won has traditionally been high, but two events drove it down. One was the 1997 crash. The other was the 2008 crash. The first one was deeper but recovery more quick. This one not as severe but longer lasting.
When the recession first hit in 2008 and the Won started sinking some expats went to Japan because the Yen had risen. So, I think historical norms are slowly coming back. There's not a whole lot Korea can do about much larger neighbors. Canada gets into similiar situations with regards to US markets. |
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schwa
Joined: 18 Jan 2003
Location: Yap
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| Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 2:37 am Post subject: |
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Forex dimwit here.
Due to personal circumstances, I sent a decade's worth of saved Korean won to a Canadian bank (CAD) last week.
Maybe lucky timing? Sold high & bought low? |
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GENO123
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
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| Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 5:30 am Post subject: |
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| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| GENO123 wrote: |
The answer is how much do you think the yen will drop? I dont think anyone on this board appriciates the extent of what is gkoing to happpen soon
I know one thing Korea will not just stand there when eveything in Japan is one third the price of anything Korean. It would wipe out Korea as we know it.
It is not about the us recovering it is about what is going to happen in Japan. |
I assume Korean interest rates are already low. So, I don't know if they could cut them anymore to bring down the currency. Any attempts by the Korean government to intervene in the markets by using up currency reserves will only have a short term effect. (Historicaally, it's effects have never had a lasting effect beyond a few days.)
If the US and other countries raise their rates and Korea keeps theirs low, then perhaps the Won could stay down. But interest rate hike by most governments are at least a year away. The Korean Won has traditionally been high, but two events drove it down. One was the 1997 crash. The other was the 2008 crash. The first one was deeper but recovery more quick. This one not as severe but longer lasting.
When the recession first hit in 2008 and the Won started sinking some expats went to Japan because the Yen had risen. So, I think historical norms are slowly coming back. There's not a whole lot Korea can do about much larger neighbors. Canada gets into similiar situations with regards to US markets. |
Korea could and will have to print money . As I said this time is different. There will be no return to historical norms. |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:46 pm Post subject: |
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| schwa wrote: |
Forex dimwit here.
Due to personal circumstances, I sent a decade's worth of saved Korean won to a Canadian bank (CAD) last week.
Maybe lucky timing? Sold high & bought low? |
When you don't owe money in the west you can do things such as that. Sending the money home now is better than sending it home than at any other time than during the past6 years. That said, you would have been better off sending some home during your first 3 because it would have been worth more than now. Waiting a year might be better too as the won will be higher than now, I would imagine barring no unexpected surprise. |
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