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Titus
Joined: 19 May 2012
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 Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Leon wrote: |
| Titus wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
So does everyone agree that USG insolvency is not a present threat?
Right now, unemployment is a bigger concern. But the center and right-wing consensus in Washington is deficit reduction remains a priority. That's because the center is bought off, and the right-wing wants to assure that the capital and management classes can keep employees desperate and willing to work for low wages and poor benefits. |
'The Economy' doesn't need 35-40% of working age adults to work. It has no use for them. For example, with the advent of some really incredible database and AI-like technology, the German-based consultancy I work for has been able to cut employees down over a ten year period by over 30%, while appreciating productivity (meaning profitability) and growing the book of clients. Then we offshored the menial idiot-proof stuff to India, which they still manage to fk up (and nicely serves to keep us up in the middle of the night to walk them through it). We're more profitable, there are fewer of us being paid, and a significant chunk of people who are still being paid are being paid in curry. We even outsourced almost all secretarial work to The Philippines (keeping only greeters for clients). If I call for IT help I talk to someone in India. If I have a travel question I talk to someone in Manila. When you call our office some person in Manila answers and directs you to your desired extension or is able to take and make appointments. It's incredible. My firm is not an an outlier in the our industry and almost all white-collar work is going to move towards this model. As technology advances the need for human labor is falling. As globalization advances the need for American firms to employ Americans is falling. THe practical outcome is that the employed worker has to bust his ass 24/7 b/c he's fully disposable and the formerly employed lower-skilled workers run their EBT for food. Even Starbucks is rolling out automated order taking interfaces. McDonalds too. It's over for the common man. Don't be a common man (or do get a government job).
Long story short, low labor force participation is with us permanently. USG could go on an infrastructure binge, but they'd allow the contractors to hire Mexicans anyways. USG could tinker with the dollar, but we're talking one or two % net change. It's over. |
I was wondering how common this was. The place I work for, an Australian based company, uses workers from the Philippines whenever we need data-entry work to be done. It is amazing how cheap it is, how grateful they usually are, and how they will go out of their way to get the work finished |
The Filipinos are generally excellent. The Indians are without exception rude, entitled, and lacking the ability to meet even the most generous deadlines.
It is extremely common. All management consultancies, big and mid-sized accounting firms, big banks (even some small credit unions), law firms, etc, all, use India and The Philippines to perform back-office work that 90 IQ Americans would have done 15 years ago. |
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Fox
Joined: 04 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:45 pm Post subject: |
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| Titus wrote: |
| It's over for the common man. Don't be a common man (or do get a government job). |
If anything, you're too optimistic here. It's not over for the common worker, it's over for the worker. The day reliable human level AI is produced will be directly followed by the day in which human-superior AI is produced, and that will be game over for white collar workers, even ones who think themselves indispensable. You might just miss it, but your kids probably won't. The transition will probably be ugly. |
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Titus wrote: |
| Leon wrote: |
| Titus wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
So does everyone agree that USG insolvency is not a present threat?
Right now, unemployment is a bigger concern. But the center and right-wing consensus in Washington is deficit reduction remains a priority. That's because the center is bought off, and the right-wing wants to assure that the capital and management classes can keep employees desperate and willing to work for low wages and poor benefits. |
'The Economy' doesn't need 35-40% of working age adults to work. It has no use for them. For example, with the advent of some really incredible database and AI-like technology, the German-based consultancy I work for has been able to cut employees down over a ten year period by over 30%, while appreciating productivity (meaning profitability) and growing the book of clients. Then we offshored the menial idiot-proof stuff to India, which they still manage to fk up (and nicely serves to keep us up in the middle of the night to walk them through it). We're more profitable, there are fewer of us being paid, and a significant chunk of people who are still being paid are being paid in curry. We even outsourced almost all secretarial work to The Philippines (keeping only greeters for clients). If I call for IT help I talk to someone in India. If I have a travel question I talk to someone in Manila. When you call our office some person in Manila answers and directs you to your desired extension or is able to take and make appointments. It's incredible. My firm is not an an outlier in the our industry and almost all white-collar work is going to move towards this model. As technology advances the need for human labor is falling. As globalization advances the need for American firms to employ Americans is falling. THe practical outcome is that the employed worker has to bust his ass 24/7 b/c he's fully disposable and the formerly employed lower-skilled workers run their EBT for food. Even Starbucks is rolling out automated order taking interfaces. McDonalds too. It's over for the common man. Don't be a common man (or do get a government job).
Long story short, low labor force participation is with us permanently. USG could go on an infrastructure binge, but they'd allow the contractors to hire Mexicans anyways. USG could tinker with the dollar, but we're talking one or two % net change. It's over. |
I was wondering how common this was. The place I work for, an Australian based company, uses workers from the Philippines whenever we need data-entry work to be done. It is amazing how cheap it is, how grateful they usually are, and how they will go out of their way to get the work finished |
The Filipinos are generally excellent. The Indians are without exception rude, entitled, and lacking the ability to meet even the most generous deadlines.
It is extremely common. All management consultancies, big and mid-sized accounting firms, big banks (even some small credit unions), law firms, etc, all, use India and The Philippines to perform back-office work that 90 IQ Americans would have done 15 years ago. |
I suppose for my company, even I, as a remote worker in America, am cheaper than an Australian. For the time I spend and what I do my pay is high, but If I were Australian I would be entitled to vacations and benefits and all sorts of regulations. It seems to be a be a good model for companies, but not for the workers you mentioned. |
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Titus
Joined: 19 May 2012
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| Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:54 pm Post subject: |
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It seems to be a be a good model for companies, but not for the workers you mentioned.
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It is wonderful for the men who own the company. 40 years ago they drove a nice c-class and lived in a 3000 sq-foot house. Now they drive a Bentley and live in 20,000 sq foot mansions with servants etc.
What is 'the economy' for? I am idealistic. The purpose should be to help decent people lead a decent life. |
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Titus
Joined: 19 May 2012
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| Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Fox wrote: |
| Titus wrote: |
| It's over for the common man. Don't be a common man (or do get a government job). |
If anything, you're too optimistic here. It's not over for the common worker, it's over for the worker. The day reliable human level AI is produced will be directly followed by the day in which human-superior AI is produced, and that will be game over for white collar workers, even ones who think themselves indispensable. You might just miss it, but your kids probably won't. The transition will probably be ugly. |
I think you're right. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Titus wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
So does everyone agree that USG insolvency is not a present threat?
Right now, unemployment is a bigger concern. But the center and right-wing consensus in Washington is deficit reduction remains a priority. That's because the center is bought off, and the right-wing wants to assure that the capital and management classes can keep employees desperate and willing to work for low wages and poor benefits. |
'The Economy' doesn't need 35-40% of working age adults to work. It has no use for them. For example, with the advent of some really incredible database and AI-like technology, the German-based consultancy I work for has been able to cut employees down over a ten year period by over 30%, while appreciating productivity (meaning profitability) and growing the book of clients. Then we offshored the menial idiot-proof stuff to India, which they still manage to fk up (and nicely serves to keep us up in the middle of the night to walk them through it). We're more profitable, there are fewer of us being paid, and a significant chunk of people who are still being paid are being paid in curry. We even outsourced almost all secretarial work to The Philippines (keeping only greeters for clients). If I call for IT help I talk to someone in India. If I have a travel question I talk to someone in Manila. When you call our office some person in Manila answers and directs you to your desired extension or is able to take and make appointments. It's incredible. My firm is not an an outlier in the our industry and almost all white-collar work is going to move towards this model. As technology advances the need for human labor is falling. As globalization advances the need for American firms to employ Americans is falling. THe practical outcome is that the employed worker has to bust his ass 24/7 b/c he's fully disposable and the formerly employed lower-skilled workers run their EBT for food. Even Starbucks is rolling out automated order taking interfaces. McDonalds too. It's over for the common man. Don't be a common man (or do get a government job).
Long story short, low labor force participation is with us permanently. USG could go on an infrastructure binge, but they'd allow the contractors to hire Mexicans anyways. USG could tinker with the dollar, but we're talking one or two % net change. It's over. |
Nice post, Titus.
I shall reward you, with an theAtlantic article.
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/10/the-worlds-second-richest-man-thinks-everybody-should-work-less/381241/
His proposal: Most people work 11 hours a day, three days a week
Carlos Slim is Viceroy of Mexico. |
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Titus
Joined: 19 May 2012
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| Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:38 pm Post subject: |
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| I have a 4 day workweek for 40 or so weeks of the year. I could probably get everything done in 3 days, or often even 2 if everyone cooperated. I agree with Carlos Slim. I still think The Atlantic is the biggest piece of shit on God's green earth. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:04 pm Post subject: |
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| Titus wrote: |
| Leon wrote: |
| Titus wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
So does everyone agree that USG insolvency is not a present threat?
Right now, unemployment is a bigger concern. But the center and right-wing consensus in Washington is deficit reduction remains a priority. That's because the center is bought off, and the right-wing wants to assure that the capital and management classes can keep employees desperate and willing to work for low wages and poor benefits. |
'The Economy' doesn't need 35-40% of working age adults to work. It has no use for them. For example, with the advent of some really incredible database and AI-like technology, the German-based consultancy I work for has been able to cut employees down over a ten year period by over 30%, while appreciating productivity (meaning profitability) and growing the book of clients. Then we offshored the menial idiot-proof stuff to India, which they still manage to fk up (and nicely serves to keep us up in the middle of the night to walk them through it). We're more profitable, there are fewer of us being paid, and a significant chunk of people who are still being paid are being paid in curry. We even outsourced almost all secretarial work to The Philippines (keeping only greeters for clients). If I call for IT help I talk to someone in India. If I have a travel question I talk to someone in Manila. When you call our office some person in Manila answers and directs you to your desired extension or is able to take and make appointments. It's incredible. My firm is not an an outlier in the our industry and almost all white-collar work is going to move towards this model. As technology advances the need for human labor is falling. As globalization advances the need for American firms to employ Americans is falling. THe practical outcome is that the employed worker has to bust his ass 24/7 b/c he's fully disposable and the formerly employed lower-skilled workers run their EBT for food. Even Starbucks is rolling out automated order taking interfaces. McDonalds too. It's over for the common man. Don't be a common man (or do get a government job).
Long story short, low labor force participation is with us permanently. USG could go on an infrastructure binge, but they'd allow the contractors to hire Mexicans anyways. USG could tinker with the dollar, but we're talking one or two % net change. It's over. |
I was wondering how common this was. The place I work for, an Australian based company, uses workers from the Philippines whenever we need data-entry work to be done. It is amazing how cheap it is, how grateful they usually are, and how they will go out of their way to get the work finished |
The Filipinos are generally excellent. The Indians are without exception rude, entitled, and lacking the ability to meet even the most generous deadlines.
It is extremely common. All management consultancies, big and mid-sized accounting firms, big banks (even some small credit unions), law firms, etc, all, use India and The Philippines to perform back-office work that 90 IQ Americans would have done 15 years ago. |
A friend of mine works at American Express. She pretty much says the same thing about the Filipinos and Indians. They've been shifting more and more from India to the Philippines, so all that the Indians do now is manage the Filipinos and infrastructure/IT side of things. None are doing call service work now. I wonder if the Indians know they're cutting their own throats (I'm speaking specifically in this case, not in general).
Anyway, yes, getting into government was the great half-intentional move I made. It seems to be one of the few fairly secure, stable middle income careers out there now. How f'ing depressing... |
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:02 am Post subject: |
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| Titus wrote: |
| I have a 4 day workweek for 40 or so weeks of the year. I could probably get everything done in 3 days, or often even 2 if everyone cooperated. I agree with Carlos Slim. I still think The Atlantic is the biggest piece of shit on God's green earth. |
At my current job I work when work needs to be done, and that's it. I get paid the same each month, but some months I do hardly anything and others it is a lot, but there is no obligation for hours or for even when or where I work. I wish this model was more prevalent, much better than when I had to sit in an office with nothing to do watching the clock to go home, and it rewards working efficiently. |
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Titus
Joined: 19 May 2012
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| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 4:49 pm Post subject: |
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| Leon wrote: |
| Titus wrote: |
| I have a 4 day workweek for 40 or so weeks of the year. I could probably get everything done in 3 days, or often even 2 if everyone cooperated. I agree with Carlos Slim. I still think The Atlantic is the biggest piece of shit on God's green earth. |
At my current job I work when work needs to be done, and that's it. I get paid the same each month, but some months I do hardly anything and others it is a lot, but there is no obligation for hours or for even when or where I work. I wish this model was more prevalent, much better than when I had to sit in an office with nothing to do watching the clock to go home, and it rewards working efficiently. |
I'm jealous. I travel 40 weeks a year, or thereabouts (which is why I get Friday's off those weeks). I'd take a cut for a project based position like that.
Have you decided against getting on the GS payroll? Your school, as undoubtedly you know, is a major feeder to State, the CIA etc. The law school especially. |
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Titus wrote: |
| Leon wrote: |
| Titus wrote: |
| I have a 4 day workweek for 40 or so weeks of the year. I could probably get everything done in 3 days, or often even 2 if everyone cooperated. I agree with Carlos Slim. I still think The Atlantic is the biggest piece of shit on God's green earth. |
At my current job I work when work needs to be done, and that's it. I get paid the same each month, but some months I do hardly anything and others it is a lot, but there is no obligation for hours or for even when or where I work. I wish this model was more prevalent, much better than when I had to sit in an office with nothing to do watching the clock to go home, and it rewards working efficiently. |
I'm jealous. I travel 40 weeks a year, or thereabouts (which is why I get Friday's off those weeks). I'd take a cut for a project based position like that.
Have you decided against getting on the GS payroll? Your school, as undoubtedly you know, is a major feeder to State, the CIA etc. The law school especially. |
My current position is great for me as a student, but since it is a start up there aren't currently enough projects to justify giving me a full time wage. What I make is high for the hours I actually work, but once I graduate it's time to move on to (I guess) a more normal work routine.
Yes, my school is full of budding and mid-career bureaucrats from around the world, and now that I have to make a living I'm tentatively considering it. The CIA was here about two weeks ago, and state was about a month ago, so the option is there. I'm taking the foreign service test tomorrow, more just to do it than out of genuine desire to be a diplomat, but at this point its more just waiting to see what job offers I get from and from where. |
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Titus
Joined: 19 May 2012
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| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 6:05 pm Post subject: |
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| The pension is good. |
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KimchiNinja
Joined: 01 May 2012
Location: Gangnam
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| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 6:49 pm Post subject: |
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| Fox wrote: |
| Titus wrote: |
| It's over for the common man. Don't be a common man (or do get a government job). |
If anything, you're too optimistic here. It's not over for the common worker, it's over for the worker. The day reliable human level AI is produced will be directly followed by the day in which human-superior AI is produced, and that will be game over for white collar workers, even ones who think themselves indispensable. You might just miss it, but your kids probably won't. The transition will probably be ugly. |
Agree. This is one of the reasons why I think it is WAY past time to start global planning on population control.
Countries are always talking about "creating jobs". Look, the number of real jobs already exists, if the population exceeds that, then manage the population, don't create a bunch of fake jobs. In the US with advances is robotics/factories there is no purpose for all those people anymore, could probably drop the pop down to 200M, and have a better quality of life for everyone. In the Philippines could probably cut that population in half...
This current mindset of "growth growth growth" is silly, and all the economics books/theories are garbage. The planet is a finite space. It seems much wiser to keep moving technology forward while decreasing population. Basically total GDP decreases, but GDP per capita increases due to technology, and quality of life increases due to all the improvements from less population density (traffic, food, noise, stress, environmental, etc).
But humans have crappy global coordination skills (they can barely coordinate their individual countries), so this global growth competition goes on and on. This ties in with the original post, and how the USG got themselves into this situation. |
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GENO123
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 6:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Japan , China and Korea had population control . The result was that you have a lot of old people and only a few young people to take care of them and pay for them. Not having a lot of young people is the reason why Japan , Europe , and the US are bankrupt. (social security , medicare who pays for it?) It is also one of the reasons why China (one chid policy) is going down the drain. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:12 pm Post subject: |
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| GENO123 wrote: |
| Japan , China and Korea had population control . The result was that you have a lot of old people and only a few young people to take care of them and pay for them. Not having a lot of young people is the reason why Japan , Europe , and the US are bankrupt. (social security , medicare who pays for it?) It is also one of the reasons why China (one chid policy) is going down the drain. |
I agree that having more children than two has been the traditional method of securing one's wealth and future in old age.
Population control correlates with savings accounts and access to banking. Consider that farmers had many children, and its modern family planning that has changed it.
There's a lot more to it, but four or more children could more easily take care of their parents than social security promises to do for our generation. |
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