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KimchiNinja
Joined: 01 May 2012
Location: Gangnam
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 Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:29 pm Post subject: |
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| jvalmer wrote: |
| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| Korean electronics manufactures are at, or almost at their peaks. There are tons of companies in Asia, from India, China, and even the Philippines that are producing pretty good phones, and electronics at the almost the same quality, but for half the price. It's only a matter of time before they figure out mass manufacturing, and marketing in order to dethrone Korean tech companies, just like the Koreans did to the Japanese a decade ago. |
Sure, that mirrors some analyst opinions. But it assumes Korean companies remain still, while foreign companies adapt. In reality both Korean and foreign companies will adapt simultaneously.
Also Koreans don't like "almost as good", I hear a lot of "oh, that's crappy Chinese quality". Look at Apple for example, lots of cheaper stuff out there, but they have the fat profit margins.
So there's lots of stuff at play here, not easy to know the future. |
Don't get me wrong, I do hope Korean companies can stay competitive. But, when you're at the top, you tend to get arrogant. The Japanese made that mistake, American automakers too. We're even starting to see Japanese car makers starting to slip with their quality and safety. And Samsung, and LG, better have learned something from it, because those no-name companies will be constantly at their heels. Dynasties can last only so long. |
I don't disagree with this, I just see KR as being 30yrs away from the JP/US dead-end. Seems a bit too early to call it "the top". |
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Lucas
Joined: 11 Sep 2012
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| Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:33 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2014/10/488_167109.html
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Korea's debt held by corporations, households and the government has hit a "critical point," data showed Tuesday.
According to information collected by Rep. Lee Hahn-koo, a lawmaker of the ruling Saenuri Party, as of the end of last year, the debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratios of individuals, corporations and the government are far higher than the critical levels set by the World Economic Forum (WEF).
Lee analyzed data from the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, the Bank of Korea (BOK) and the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade.
Individuals' debt reached 1.2 quadrillion won at the end of 2013, representing 85.4 percent of GDP. The critical level for individual debt according to the WEF is 75 percent.
Experts have already raised alarm over snowballing household debt.
BOK Governor Lee Ju-yeol said in Monday's National Assembly audit that household debt is approaching a critical threshold where consumption is suppressed.
The Korea Development Institute also revealed that household debt was weakening potential growth in a report back in June of this year.
Corporate debt stood at 1.8 quadrillion won, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 126.8 percent, much higher than the critical point set by the WEF of 80 percent.
The government's debt amounted to 1.6 quadrillion won, exacerbated by public organizations losses and pension funds for public servants and soldiers. Its debt-to-GDP ratio is 114.9 percent, also way above the 90 percent set by the WEF.
"As the stagnation in domestic demand continues, excessive debt will worsen both consumption and investment levels," Lee said.
"If the economically active population aged 15 to 64 declines and debt is to be adjusted, the nation will face a huge crisis with low growth accompanied by consumption and investment sluggishness," he said.
According to Statistics Korea, the economically active population is forecast to start dropping from 2017, after peaking at 37 million in 2016.
Lee warned that such a debt problem will drive the nation into a Japan-style protracted economic slump, bringing about a long-term housing market recession and falling prices in assets.
Meanwhile, the nation's household net saving rate stood at 4.5 percent last year, according to the BOK. The figure is far below the average rate of 5.3 percent for Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations.
The nation's savings rate stood at 24.7 percent in 1988, the highest among OECD countries and plunged to 16.1 percent in the 1990s. In 2001, the rate was below the average of the OECD members.
The falling savings rate comes from sluggish income growth amid the economic slowdown and prolonged low interest rates, experts said.
Kim Chun-gu, a researcher of Hyundai Research Institute, said in a recent report that a 1 percentage point fall of the household saving rate will cause a 0.25 percentage point decline in investment and a 0.19 percentage point drop in the economic growth rate.
"If the household saving rate continues to fall, it will affect investment and economic growth and worsen retirement incomes for individuals. To raise the household saving rate, household incomes should be strengthened," Kim said. |
4.5% savings today - wow, if that's true! I thought it would have been much higher in Korea! |
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jvalmer
Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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| Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:33 pm Post subject: |
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| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| Korean electronics manufactures are at, or almost at their peaks. There are tons of companies in Asia, from India, China, and even the Philippines that are producing pretty good phones, and electronics at the almost the same quality, but for half the price. It's only a matter of time before they figure out mass manufacturing, and marketing in order to dethrone Korean tech companies, just like the Koreans did to the Japanese a decade ago. |
Sure, that mirrors some analyst opinions. But it assumes Korean companies remain still, while foreign companies adapt. In reality both Korean and foreign companies will adapt simultaneously.
Also Koreans don't like "almost as good", I hear a lot of "oh, that's crappy Chinese quality". Look at Apple for example, lots of cheaper stuff out there, but they have the fat profit margins.
So there's lots of stuff at play here, not easy to know the future. |
Don't get me wrong, I do hope Korean companies can stay competitive. But, when you're at the top, you tend to get arrogant. The Japanese made that mistake, American automakers too. We're even starting to see Japanese car makers starting to slip with their quality and safety. And Samsung, and LG, better have learned something from it, because those no-name companies will be constantly at their heels. Dynasties can last only so long. |
I don't disagree with this, I just see KR as being 30yrs away from the JP/US dead-end. Seems a bit too early to call it "the top". |
I figure at least another 10 years, based on the past.
1975-2000 - Japanese companies made their names
2000-2025-ish -Korea's time in the light
2025-???? - ???? Chinese? Taiwanese? Thais? Romanians? Ugandans? Brazilians? |
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jvalmer
Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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| Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Lucas wrote: |
| 4.5% savings today - wow, if that's true! I thought it would have been much higher in Korea! |
I think it was something like 30% pre-1997. Then Koreans started using credit cards. One of the IMF conditions btw, liberalization of credit. |
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KimchiNinja
Joined: 01 May 2012
Location: Gangnam
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| Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:38 pm Post subject: |
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| jvalmer wrote: |
| Lucas wrote: |
| 4.5% savings today - wow, if that's true! I thought it would have been much higher in Korea! |
I think it was something like 30% pre-1997. Then Koreans started using credit cards. One of the IMF conditions btw, liberalization of credit. |
Yup. KR used to be like CN as far as savings. But now KR is basically copying the US; consumers, both genders working, saving little, many going into negative savings (debt), driving growth higher and higher. It's stupidity, but there's money to be made off the stupid. |
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Lucas
Joined: 11 Sep 2012
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| Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| Yup. KR used to be like CN as far as savings. But now KR is basically copying the US; consumers, both genders working, saving little, many going into negative savings (debt), driving growth higher and higher. It's stupidity, but there's money to be made off the stupid. |
I guess you're 'ahead' of the bell-curve then, Kimchi Ninja a 'bell end' if you will.  |
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northway
Joined: 05 Jul 2010
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:03 am Post subject: |
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| jvalmer wrote: |
| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| Korean electronics manufactures are at, or almost at their peaks. There are tons of companies in Asia, from India, China, and even the Philippines that are producing pretty good phones, and electronics at the almost the same quality, but for half the price. It's only a matter of time before they figure out mass manufacturing, and marketing in order to dethrone Korean tech companies, just like the Koreans did to the Japanese a decade ago. |
Sure, that mirrors some analyst opinions. But it assumes Korean companies remain still, while foreign companies adapt. In reality both Korean and foreign companies will adapt simultaneously.
Also Koreans don't like "almost as good", I hear a lot of "oh, that's crappy Chinese quality". Look at Apple for example, lots of cheaper stuff out there, but they have the fat profit margins.
So there's lots of stuff at play here, not easy to know the future. |
Don't get me wrong, I do hope Korean companies can stay competitive. But, when you're at the top, you tend to get arrogant. The Japanese made that mistake, American automakers too. We're even starting to see Japanese car makers starting to slip with their quality and safety. And Samsung, and LG, better have learned something from it, because those no-name companies will be constantly at their heels. Dynasties can last only so long. |
I don't disagree with this, I just see KR as being 30yrs away from the JP/US dead-end. Seems a bit too early to call it "the top". |
I figure at least another 10 years, based on the past.
1975-2000 - Japanese companies made their names
2000-2025-ish -Korea's time in the light
2025-???? - ???? Chinese? Taiwanese? Thais? Romanians? Ugandans? Brazilians? |
I'm betting on Vietnam for 2025. Their cities are finally coming around (public transportation in the works), and they have the share the Koreans' same insane work ethic. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:37 pm Post subject: |
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| northway wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| Korean electronics manufactures are at, or almost at their peaks. There are tons of companies in Asia, from India, China, and even the Philippines that are producing pretty good phones, and electronics at the almost the same quality, but for half the price. It's only a matter of time before they figure out mass manufacturing, and marketing in order to dethrone Korean tech companies, just like the Koreans did to the Japanese a decade ago. |
Sure, that mirrors some analyst opinions. But it assumes Korean companies remain still, while foreign companies adapt. In reality both Korean and foreign companies will adapt simultaneously.
Also Koreans don't like "almost as good", I hear a lot of "oh, that's crappy Chinese quality". Look at Apple for example, lots of cheaper stuff out there, but they have the fat profit margins.
So there's lots of stuff at play here, not easy to know the future. |
Don't get me wrong, I do hope Korean companies can stay competitive. But, when you're at the top, you tend to get arrogant. The Japanese made that mistake, American automakers too. We're even starting to see Japanese car makers starting to slip with their quality and safety. And Samsung, and LG, better have learned something from it, because those no-name companies will be constantly at their heels. Dynasties can last only so long. |
I don't disagree with this, I just see KR as being 30yrs away from the JP/US dead-end. Seems a bit too early to call it "the top". |
I figure at least another 10 years, based on the past.
1975-2000 - Japanese companies made their names
2000-2025-ish -Korea's time in the light
2025-???? - ???? Chinese? Taiwanese? Thais? Romanians? Ugandans? Brazilians? |
I'm betting on Vietnam for 2025. Their cities are finally coming around (public transportation in the works), and they have the share the Koreans' same insane work ethic. |
Indonesia has potential. Tons of natural resources, a youthful population, and a solid work ethic. If Jokowi is able to do his thing, watch out. He's got a ton of good ideas and is very bright. Just a question of his ability to get things done at the national level. If Indonesia can cut back on red tape and improve its infrastructure, it can do very well. Big if though I realize.
While I agree with Vietnam, it has a couple drawbacks: a) its leaders aren't as skilled, unified, or as respected by its own populace as China's have been b) China. It might meddle into Vietnamese affairs and make things messy. |
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atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2014 4:24 pm Post subject: |
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| bucheon bum wrote: |
| northway wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| Korean electronics manufactures are at, or almost at their peaks. There are tons of companies in Asia, from India, China, and even the Philippines that are producing pretty good phones, and electronics at the almost the same quality, but for half the price. It's only a matter of time before they figure out mass manufacturing, and marketing in order to dethrone Korean tech companies, just like the Koreans did to the Japanese a decade ago. |
Sure, that mirrors some analyst opinions. But it assumes Korean companies remain still, while foreign companies adapt. In reality both Korean and foreign companies will adapt simultaneously.
Also Koreans don't like "almost as good", I hear a lot of "oh, that's crappy Chinese quality". Look at Apple for example, lots of cheaper stuff out there, but they have the fat profit margins.
So there's lots of stuff at play here, not easy to know the future. |
Don't get me wrong, I do hope Korean companies can stay competitive. But, when you're at the top, you tend to get arrogant. The Japanese made that mistake, American automakers too. We're even starting to see Japanese car makers starting to slip with their quality and safety. And Samsung, and LG, better have learned something from it, because those no-name companies will be constantly at their heels. Dynasties can last only so long. |
I don't disagree with this, I just see KR as being 30yrs away from the JP/US dead-end. Seems a bit too early to call it "the top". |
I figure at least another 10 years, based on the past.
1975-2000 - Japanese companies made their names
2000-2025-ish -Korea's time in the light
2025-???? - ???? Chinese? Taiwanese? Thais? Romanians? Ugandans? Brazilians? |
I'm betting on Vietnam for 2025. Their cities are finally coming around (public transportation in the works), and they have the share the Koreans' same insane work ethic. |
Indonesia has potential. Tons of natural resources, a youthful population, and a solid work ethic. If Jokowi is able to do his thing, watch out. He's got a ton of good ideas and is very bright. Just a question of his ability to get things done at the national level. If Indonesia can cut back on red tape and improve its infrastructure, it can do very well. Big if though I realize.
While I agree with Vietnam, it has a couple drawbacks: a) its leaders aren't as skilled, unified, or as respected by its own populace as China's have been b) China. It might meddle into Vietnamese affairs and make things messy. |
Indonesia suffers from being one of the most corrupt countries in the world. They'll need to get a handle on that. |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:10 pm Post subject: |
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| jvalmer wrote: |
| Lucas wrote: |
| 4.5% savings today - wow, if that's true! I thought it would have been much higher in Korea! |
I think it was something like 30% pre-1997. Then Koreans started using credit cards. One of the IMF conditions btw, liberalization of credit. |
Liberalization of credit? Credit is damn near impossible to get here and when you do get it, it's based on low limits and non revolving balances. You get Visa's in name only.
A friend wanted a loan to build a building and a bank wouldn't give it to him. They would only loan it to him if had the building built first as collateral. effed up. So, he wired in money from the States, had it built, got the loan, paid himself back, and then took on a type of Korean mortgage.
Liberalization of credit? My @$$! |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:02 pm Post subject: |
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| atwood wrote: |
| bucheon bum wrote: |
| northway wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| Korean electronics manufactures are at, or almost at their peaks. There are tons of companies in Asia, from India, China, and even the Philippines that are producing pretty good phones, and electronics at the almost the same quality, but for half the price. It's only a matter of time before they figure out mass manufacturing, and marketing in order to dethrone Korean tech companies, just like the Koreans did to the Japanese a decade ago. |
Sure, that mirrors some analyst opinions. But it assumes Korean companies remain still, while foreign companies adapt. In reality both Korean and foreign companies will adapt simultaneously.
Also Koreans don't like "almost as good", I hear a lot of "oh, that's crappy Chinese quality". Look at Apple for example, lots of cheaper stuff out there, but they have the fat profit margins.
So there's lots of stuff at play here, not easy to know the future. |
Don't get me wrong, I do hope Korean companies can stay competitive. But, when you're at the top, you tend to get arrogant. The Japanese made that mistake, American automakers too. We're even starting to see Japanese car makers starting to slip with their quality and safety. And Samsung, and LG, better have learned something from it, because those no-name companies will be constantly at their heels. Dynasties can last only so long. |
I don't disagree with this, I just see KR as being 30yrs away from the JP/US dead-end. Seems a bit too early to call it "the top". |
I figure at least another 10 years, based on the past.
1975-2000 - Japanese companies made their names
2000-2025-ish -Korea's time in the light
2025-???? - ???? Chinese? Taiwanese? Thais? Romanians? Ugandans? Brazilians? |
I'm betting on Vietnam for 2025. Their cities are finally coming around (public transportation in the works), and they have the share the Koreans' same insane work ethic. |
Indonesia has potential. Tons of natural resources, a youthful population, and a solid work ethic. If Jokowi is able to do his thing, watch out. He's got a ton of good ideas and is very bright. Just a question of his ability to get things done at the national level. If Indonesia can cut back on red tape and improve its infrastructure, it can do very well. Big if though I realize.
While I agree with Vietnam, it has a couple drawbacks: a) its leaders aren't as skilled, unified, or as respected by its own populace as China's have been b) China. It might meddle into Vietnamese affairs and make things messy. |
Indonesia suffers from being one of the most corrupt countries in the world. They'll need to get a handle on that. |
True, but it's actually ranked just above Vietnam by Transparency International in its corruption score (31 for Vietnam vs. 32 for Indonesia) and its government budget is a lot more transparent than Vietnam (or China for that matter).
And its new president is as clean as they come. The previous one was also clean, but his administration was another story... |
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KimchiNinja
Joined: 01 May 2012
Location: Gangnam
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| Lucas wrote: |
| 4.5% savings today - wow, if that's true! I thought it would have been much higher in Korea! |
I think it was something like 30% pre-1997. Then Koreans started using credit cards. One of the IMF conditions btw, liberalization of credit. |
Liberalization of credit? Credit is damn near impossible to get here and when you do get it, it's based on low limits and non revolving balances. You get Visa's in name only.
A friend wanted a loan to build a building and a bank wouldn't give it to him. They would only loan it to him if had the building built first as collateral. effed up. So, he wired in money from the States, had it built, got the loan, paid himself back, and then took on a type of Korean mortgage.
Liberalization of credit? My @$$! |
Well I think the point is; the products/services industry dangles unrealistic materialistic goals, then the banking industry offers credit cards as a way to achieve them. That has certainly happened here.
Perhaps foreigners aren't extended credit, but that is a different topic. |
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jvalmer
Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:30 pm Post subject: |
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| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| Lucas wrote: |
| 4.5% savings today - wow, if that's true! I thought it would have been much higher in Korea! |
I think it was something like 30% pre-1997. Then Koreans started using credit cards. One of the IMF conditions btw, liberalization of credit. |
Liberalization of credit? Credit is damn near impossible to get here and when you do get it, it's based on low limits and non revolving balances. You get Visa's in name only.
A friend wanted a loan to build a building and a bank wouldn't give it to him. They would only loan it to him if had the building built first as collateral. effed up. So, he wired in money from the States, had it built, got the loan, paid himself back, and then took on a type of Korean mortgage.
Liberalization of credit? My @$$! |
If you're a foreigner, maybe not, but for a Korean it did become much easier. Korean credit card companies practically handed out credit cards around 2000. It was almost like those mail-outs of working credit cards that BofA did in the late-50's. |
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Smithington
Joined: 14 Dec 2011
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:36 pm Post subject: |
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| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| basic69isokay wrote: |
| Hey, no one in the US saw it coming in 2006 either! |
I did.
Korean economy is doing just fine. Unlikely to be any recession. |
You are a monumental bore. |
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Lucas
Joined: 11 Sep 2012
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
KimchiNinja wrote:
basic69isokay wrote:
Hey, no one in the US saw it coming in 2006 either!
I did.
Korean economy is doing just fine. Unlikely to be any recession.
You are a monumental bore. |
Smithington do you like Downton Abbey? |
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