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When will the Korean housing bubble pop?
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Fox



Joined: 04 Mar 2009

PostPosted: Mon Nov 17, 2014 3:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The gloom and doom about where the 전세 system is going seems on the mark to me. 전세 only really makes sense as an aspect of a culture of savings anyway, and now that Koreans are shifting ever more strongly towards a culture of debt, it really doesn't make sense.

For those who do want to buy, here's a useful website.
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PRagic



Joined: 24 Feb 2006

PostPosted: Mon Nov 17, 2014 8:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's why the K government passed those most recent measures. Also, a on the quiet, the word went out that if you fork over a huge amount of chunsae, you'll get audited. No joke. Everything has been stacked to prod the buyer-seller market forward.

The downside? Untenable levels of debt and artificially deflated interest rates.
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atwood



Joined: 26 Dec 2009

PostPosted: Mon Nov 17, 2014 8:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

FDNY wrote:
I don't think it will pop at all. Prices will not come down, they will also
continue to rise in select locations.

However, if you don't live in Gangnam or Jeju, then don't waste your
money in real estate.

Put in enough key money so you don't pay rent. This could be upwards
of 100,000,000KRW depending on size or location. Then put the rest of
your money into several diversified mutual funds. Don't look at it or touch
it for 7-10 years. When you withdraw it it will at least double.

That's possible, but it's also possible you could lose half your money.

I'm not saying don't invest, just that you should be aware of the risks.
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PRagic



Joined: 24 Feb 2006

PostPosted: Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you've been here a while, have gotten married, had kids and/or simply just accumulated too much crap, then 100million won't get you anything near big enough, at least not in Seoul.

A few years back when we had to move (had chunsae and the owner sold), there wasn't much on the market. Our place was definitely NOT nice in almost all respects, but it was still 250million for chunsae, and we were happy to get that for that amount. The place we got the boot from was 340million. Eeeek.

Our big worry is that chunsae is going the way of the dinasaur, and rent on a three bedroom in a hood we'd like will run about 3 million/month. That's a kick in the nut-sack when you're used to just losing interest income! Guess we'll just cross that bride when we get there. Maybe there'll be bubble pop and we'll be able to pick up decent place on the cheap, some place with a little land. Dream on...yeah...I know...
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Lucas



Joined: 11 Sep 2012

PostPosted: Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
If you've been here a while, have gotten married, had kids and/or simply just accumulated too much crap, then 100million won't get you anything near big enough, at least not in Seoul.

A few years back when we had to move (had chunsae and the owner sold), there wasn't much on the market. Our place was definitely NOT nice in almost all respects, but it was still 250million for chunsae, and we were happy to get that for that amount. The place we got the boot from was 340million. Eeeek.

Our big worry is that chunsae is going the way of the dinasaur, and rent on a three bedroom in a hood we'd like will run about 3 million/month. That's a kick in the nut-sack when you're used to just losing interest income! Guess we'll just cross that bride when we get there. Maybe there'll be bubble pop and we'll be able to pick up decent place on the cheap, some place with a little land. Dream on...yeah...I know...


Move out of Seoul?

Commute.
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edwardcatflap



Joined: 22 Mar 2009

PostPosted: Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Our big worry is that chunsae is going the way of the dinasaur, and rent on a three bedroom in a hood we'd like will run about 3 million/month.


Sounds a lot to me. We've got 400 mil chunsae on a 4 bedroom place in the centre of Seoul but the rent was quoted as 2 mil a month.
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PRagic



Joined: 24 Feb 2006

PostPosted: Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good deal. Hope the paper is clean on the place if you've 400 in, but you've probably done all that due dilligence. Odd that they'd quote such a low rent, though. If the chusae is 400, then the rent quoted would normally be 4 million/month.

We like the Hapjeong/Hongdae area and have always lived around there. Would be open to a more central city location if it were a decent commute, though. Depends on the hood.
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goreality



Joined: 09 Jul 2009

PostPosted: Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Good deal. Hope the paper is clean on the place if you've 400 in, but you've probably done all that due dilligence. Odd that they'd quote such a low rent, though. If the chusae is 400, then the rent quoted would normally be 4 million/month.

I think this logic is what is dying.
4 million a month rent would be 48 million a year. Owners who use that rate still are nuts.
Good luck earning that on a 400 million dollar investment. I'll take the risk that the property is way over valued and I won't be able to get my money back if it's sold in auction.

Also for those who know the rules, you can get chunse insurance for the amount beyond what the government backs. Even if the property is mortgaged, you actually get payed back before other people if you registered the jonse legally and properly.
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PRagic



Joined: 24 Feb 2006

PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

First off, that's why I asked whether or not the 'paper was clean'. You can make sure that there are no debts or leans on a property before plunking down your chunsae. If there is a lean/debt, then there's a pecking order so you then have to weigh your risk.

The bank is always first. If you're in a building, the first people to have moved in will be the first to get paid out if the property goes bust and gets auctioned off (assuming, of course that there'll be anything left over!). The last person to rent in the building will be on the wrong end of the shiite shovel.

I kind of understand why the rent stated was a lot lower than the 10% usually charged up until a year or so ago. Rents have fallen as people simply couldn't affort those lofty sums. Now, it's more common for rent to be 4%-6% of a lump chunsae amount. Think you still have to pony up on the pojeumgum, though (down payment).

Unfortunately, no matter your form of payment, you don't get much for your money here. This is why everyone I know likes working and banking here, but spends every break elsewhere and has absolutely zero intention of retiring here. They'll retire FROM a K place of work, sure, but they won't retire IN Korea.
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PRagic



Joined: 24 Feb 2006

PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

...and it was 400 million WON, not dollars. Pretty big difference lol...
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motiontodismiss



Joined: 18 Dec 2011

PostPosted: Sun Nov 23, 2014 6:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The bubble will pop when either the FRB or inflation forces the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates (most likely the former) and the banks start telling their borrowers to make payments toward their principal.

Some people in Korea don't seem to get that jeonse is the equivalent of a home equity loan where the lender gets to live in the home rent-free instead of interest. This means that household debt is a lot worse than what government statistics seem to indicate.

One more thing, the population of people between the ages of 15-64 hit a peak in 2012 in Korea and the boomers are retiring en masse soon. This same peak for the US was in 2007 or sth and in Japan, 1989 or thereabouts. THAT's when all hell will break loose and people with cash will win.

There are more homes in this country(not including "home-equivalents" such as officetels and the like) than there are households and with the birth rate at 1.19, it's only a matter of time.

Jeonse is still cheaper than rent (even if the latter went down A LOT), so go with a place with no debt on it, register your lease agreement at your local dong office, and insure your deposit with the Housing Finance Corporation or Seoul Guarantee Insurance. For a 100 million won deposit, the premium's like 20k won a month. If HF or SGIC refuse to insure it, find somewhere else to live.

That said, jeonse isn't going up and rent's going down in Bundang. It's a great thing.
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PRagic



Joined: 24 Feb 2006

PostPosted: Sun Nov 23, 2014 4:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem is that it's getting harder and harder to find decent chunsae places with clean paper. Owners without debt or liens increasingly want monthly rent, and who can blame them?
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Stan Rogers



Joined: 20 Aug 2010

PostPosted: Sun Nov 23, 2014 4:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One thing to keep in mind is that there will always be a market for new places. Location is also important too.

I don't see interest rates going up anytime soon.
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Stan Rogers



Joined: 20 Aug 2010

PostPosted: Sun Nov 23, 2014 4:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Something else that has started going on is people who buy a new place but don't live in the apartment and refuse to rent it out as well. They purchase an apartment as an investment and hope to sell it at a premium becasue it has never been lived in.

Just because many places in a building are empty doesn't mean they aren't paid for or unsold.
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PRagic



Joined: 24 Feb 2006

PostPosted: Sun Nov 23, 2014 4:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's why you have mobs of people trying to buy in at the 'time-of-build' initial price. Funny, but in instances when the price has then FALLEN, all those greedy bastards who we're looking to price gouge any other would be buyer go crying and bitching to the government that they were cheated.
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