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When will the Korean housing bubble pop?
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Lucas



Joined: 11 Sep 2012

PostPosted: Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
That's why you have mobs of people trying to buy in at the 'time-of-build' initial price. Funny, but in instances when the price has then FALLEN, all those greedy bastards who we're looking to price gouge any other would be buyer go crying and bitching to the government that they were cheated.


Or they kill themselves Rolling Eyes

I have a new business idea - I'm going to buy a load of IDEA furniture, open up a shop 300km away and sell all the stuff at a 25% mark up.

I might call it 'IK- near'
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slothrop



Joined: 03 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

edit

Last edited by slothrop on Sun Jan 11, 2015 5:08 am; edited 1 time in total
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PRagic



Joined: 24 Feb 2006

PostPosted: Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you think you've thought of a way to do comparatively little work in order to price gouge lazy people here, odds are somebody has already thunk it. And even if you did make it happen, there'd be 4 identical shops surrounding you in half a heartbeat lol...
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Stan Rogers



Joined: 20 Aug 2010

PostPosted: Sun Nov 23, 2014 11:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

slothrop wrote:
Stan Rogers wrote:
Something else that has started going on is people who buy a new place but don't live in the apartment and refuse to rent it out as well. They purchase an apartment as an investment and hope to sell it at a premium becasue it has never been lived in.

Just because many places in a building are empty doesn't mean they aren't paid for or unsold.


aren't there are entire newly built cities in china doing this?


This is going on all over the world. Vancouver is a great example. And the property values keep rising.
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motiontodismiss



Joined: 18 Dec 2011

PostPosted: Fri Nov 28, 2014 2:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stan Rogers wrote:
Something else that has started going on is people who buy a new place but don't live in the apartment and refuse to rent it out as well. They purchase an apartment as an investment and hope to sell it at a premium becasue it has never been lived in.

Just because many places in a building are empty doesn't mean they aren't paid for or unsold.


Just because the homes are paid for doesn't mean they aren't paid for with debt.

The mad home speculation can't be sustained without cash flow.
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Stan Rogers



Joined: 20 Aug 2010

PostPosted: Fri Nov 28, 2014 5:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

motiontodismiss wrote:
Stan Rogers wrote:
Something else that has started going on is people who buy a new place but don't live in the apartment and refuse to rent it out as well. They purchase an apartment as an investment and hope to sell it at a premium becasue it has never been lived in.

Just because many places in a building are empty doesn't mean they aren't paid for or unsold.


Just because the homes are paid for doesn't mean they aren't paid for with debt.

The mad home speculation can't be sustained without cash flow.


I agree that speculation is out there. But the empty homes being purchased with debt and not rented out just doesn't make sense. If it was purchased with debt then I would at least expect the owner to rent out the place to cover the interest charges anyway. I suspect the empty places that are owned are possessed by people with money looking for a fairly stable asset to invest in and hoping to take advantage of the never lived in premium.
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basic69isokay



Joined: 28 Sep 2014
Location: korea

PostPosted: Sat Nov 29, 2014 7:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/665578.html
"Household debt resembles US pre-crisis"
So, 2014 is basically 2004 in the US, by the numbers.
That would put us on course for a huge crash in 2018.
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GENO123



Joined: 28 Jan 2010

PostPosted: Sat Nov 29, 2014 4:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

basic69isokay wrote:
http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/665578.html
"Household debt resembles US pre-crisis"
So, 2014 is basically 2004 in the US, by the numbers.
That would put us on course for a huge crash in 2018.



That is not a good omen for the Won
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Jane



Joined: 01 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hubby and I were thinking about buying an apartment in my central-Western Seoul hood this past summer. After doing some visiting to the budongsans, we learned that apartments were having a hard time to sell. They were languishing on the market. The agents wouldn't provide a straight reason to why that was. We figured out that our hood is probably 10-15 years old, and Koreans are looking to buy new builds, so there are no takers for the apartments in my neighbourhood.
However, Jeonse and Weolse apartments are doing fine.
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Stan Rogers



Joined: 20 Aug 2010

PostPosted: Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jane wrote:
Hubby and I were thinking about buying an apartment in my central-Western Seoul hood this past summer. After doing some visiting to the budongsans, we learned that apartments were having a hard time to sell. They were languishing on the market. The agents wouldn't provide a straight reason to why that was. We figured out that our hood is probably 10-15 years old, and Koreans are looking to buy new builds, so there are no takers for the apartments in my neighbourhood.
However, Jeonse and Weolse apartments are doing fine.


Most Koreans won't sell their apartments for less than they paid for them. They paid a lot for them when the prices were inflated. As for new homebuyers, who is going to buy an old apartment when you can buy a new one for the same money?
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motiontodismiss



Joined: 18 Dec 2011

PostPosted: Sat Dec 13, 2014 7:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stan Rogers wrote:
Jane wrote:
Hubby and I were thinking about buying an apartment in my central-Western Seoul hood this past summer. After doing some visiting to the budongsans, we learned that apartments were having a hard time to sell. They were languishing on the market. The agents wouldn't provide a straight reason to why that was. We figured out that our hood is probably 10-15 years old, and Koreans are looking to buy new builds, so there are no takers for the apartments in my neighbourhood.
However, Jeonse and Weolse apartments are doing fine.


Most Koreans won't sell their apartments for less than they paid for them. They paid a lot for them when the prices were inflated. As for new homebuyers, who is going to buy an old apartment when you can buy a new one for the same money?


Or....a lot of the time, less money. The house-poors have nothing to blame but themselves. The market value is the market value if and only if someone's willing to buy the thing at that price.
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basic69isokay



Joined: 28 Sep 2014
Location: korea

PostPosted: Sat Dec 13, 2014 7:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep and it'll continue declining. A little 2 bedroom apt in seoul should not be a qtr million dollars. Koreans know this too, that's why nobody's buying but renting is popular. They are simply waiting for the prices to come down. A 30-50% correction is probably coming. When? That's the question! Good news for those who've waited to buy. Bad news for those who already bought haha (excluding Jeju due to ever increasing Chinese takeover )
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Stan Rogers



Joined: 20 Aug 2010

PostPosted: Sat Dec 13, 2014 8:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I got a very good deal on my apartment a few years ago. Since then the property market in Jeju has really taken off. The local real estate agent told me last week that he could get me 4 times what I paid for my apt right now if I want to sell.
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slothrop



Joined: 03 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Sat Dec 13, 2014 10:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

edit

Last edited by slothrop on Sun Jan 11, 2015 5:07 am; edited 1 time in total
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atwood



Joined: 26 Dec 2009

PostPosted: Sun Dec 14, 2014 1:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stan Rogers wrote:
I got a very good deal on my apartment a few years ago. Since then the property market in Jeju has really taken off. The local real estate agent told me last week that he could get me 4 times what I paid for my apt right now if I want to sell.

Did he mention if the prospective buyer(s) was Chinese by any chance?
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