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GENO123
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
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 Posted: Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:27 am Post subject: |
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| jackson7 wrote: |
These threads, like most on Dave's, occur quite predictably, and cyclically. Take a quick peak at historical data and foreign exchange analysis regarding the won against the American dollar:
10 years: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD}&to=KRW&view=10Y
5 years: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD}&to=KRW&view=5Y
In general, a downward (stronger won) trend with peaks of intervention/North Korean madness/policy change. Most international institutions have been writing that the won has been severely undervalued. I think there are few economists with advanced degrees on this board that are actually working in their field, and could offer us a better understanding, but knowing Dave's, it would be shot down pretty darn quick, or lost within the muck and flaming.
J7 |
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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EZE
Joined: 05 May 2012
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| Posted: Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:18 pm Post subject: |
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| snorske wrote: |
unfortunately I've been holding out for a long time now, hoping the KRW to USD would become more favorable. Now it seems I am in a pickle, as its trading at a 6 year low. Any suggestions?
Ride this sinking Won ship down and wait until 2017 to send money back?
Or send back now? (USD)
I think its currently at 1224.8950 |
At this point, I'd ride it out since the US dollar is probably turning into a bubble.
That being said, it was good timing to have moved back to the USA. When I quit a job at a company in the USA in 2006 to move to Korea, I was making the equivalent of 3.5 million won a month. The won was strong back then. Now I'm back with the exact same company ten years later making 5.1 per month. The raise was very modest in US dollars but it makes me feel better when I see my pay raise in won and currencies in some of the other countries I like to visit or live in. I turn my pay into ebay inventory and I'm going to buy oil ETFs if the price of oil drops much more. The US dollar has gone up so much relative to other assets and currencies, I don't want to hold much of it. |
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The Cosmic Hum
Joined: 09 May 2003
Location: Sonic Space
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| Posted: Fri Feb 26, 2016 12:32 am Post subject: |
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| EZE wrote: |
| At this point, I'd ride it out since the US dollar is probably turning into a bubble. |
That may be. But the Korean won is turning into an even greater lead weight.
Hard to believe it is doing so poorly so quickly...again.
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motiontodismiss
Joined: 18 Dec 2011
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| Posted: Fri Feb 26, 2016 3:21 am Post subject: |
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| The Cosmic Hum wrote: |
| EZE wrote: |
| At this point, I'd ride it out since the US dollar is probably turning into a bubble. |
That may be. But the Korean won is turning into an even greater lead weight.
Hard to believe it is doing so poorly so quickly...again.
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It's election season and the witch of the Blue House is provoking North Korea. If the Korean people cared at all about the future of their country, they'd be calling for her head. |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Sun Mar 06, 2016 11:13 pm Post subject: |
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The old won. She ain't what she use to be.
Won is down and the US dollar is up. Heck, even the Canadian dollar is up since January. |
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ArabicTeacher
Joined: 20 Jan 2016
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| Posted: Sun Mar 06, 2016 11:34 pm Post subject: |
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| As my wife deals with the banking people specialized in analysing interest rates, I learned something new. The Korean won will perform very poorly until the end of this year according to her. Just don't get your hopes up. It's not just the interest rate that is screw up itself up, the country's whole economy is imploding exactly like many Middle Eastern countries. |
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motiontodismiss
Joined: 18 Dec 2011
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| Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 5:29 am Post subject: |
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| About time the economy imploded. It should have imploded a few years ago but the politikcritters continue to refuse to take their medicine. Now, there's nothing they can do. |
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ArabicTeacher
Joined: 20 Jan 2016
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| Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 9:41 pm Post subject: |
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| motiontodismiss wrote: |
| About time the economy imploded. It should have imploded a few years ago but the politikcritters continue to refuse to take their medicine. Now, there's nothing they can do. |
The good old let's modify the statistics to pamper the economists. |
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motiontodismiss
Joined: 18 Dec 2011
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| Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2016 2:58 pm Post subject: |
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| ArabicTeacher wrote: |
| motiontodismiss wrote: |
| About time the economy imploded. It should have imploded a few years ago but the politikcritters continue to refuse to take their medicine. Now, there's nothing they can do. |
The good old let's modify the statistics to pamper the economists. |
What's worse is the Koreans actually believe those stats. The Korean gov't exists solely to *beep* over its people-might as well not exist at all. It should have permanently become a territory of a (less im)properly run country, say, China when it had the chance. |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Thu Mar 24, 2016 9:35 pm Post subject: |
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| motiontodismiss wrote: |
| ArabicTeacher wrote: |
| motiontodismiss wrote: |
| About time the economy imploded. It should have imploded a few years ago but the politikcritters continue to refuse to take their medicine. Now, there's nothing they can do. |
The good old let's modify the statistics to pamper the economists. |
What's worse is the Koreans actually believe those stats. The Korean gov't exists solely to *beep* over its people-might as well not exist at all. It should have permanently become a territory of a (less im)properly run country, say, China when it had the chance. |
China's a properly run country? |
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Zyzyfer
Joined: 29 Jan 2003
Location: who, what, where, when, why, how?
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| Posted: Thu Mar 24, 2016 10:01 pm Post subject: |
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The won quietly has crept back down to 1150-1160. As of yesterday, anyway. It's kind of weird because there hasn't really been any substantial good news?
Really seems like 1150 is the new middle ground based on my passive observances, with the government happy to let if float between 1050 and 1250 without interference. I don't know if the 1250 area functions as some sort of resistance point because it hasn't really surged past it, but can recall the government talking of intervening/actually doing so twice around the 1050 mark. |
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Fallacy
Joined: 29 Jun 2015
Location: ex-ROK
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| Posted: Fri Mar 25, 2016 3:30 am Post subject: RE: Currency forward contracts & commodity spot prices |
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| KRW follows the price of crude. |
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