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Why the market is flooded
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Weigookin74



Joined: 26 Oct 2009

PostPosted: Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.asiapundits.com/korea-cuts-2500-native-english-teachers-public-schools/

https://www.reddit.com/r/TEFL/comments/3wek8k/my_recruiters_comments_on_the_tefl_job_market_in/
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JohnML



Joined: 05 Jul 2015

PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 1:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weigookin74 wrote:
http://www.asiapundits.com/korea-cuts-2500-native-english-teachers-public-schools/

https://www.reddit.com/r/TEFL/comments/3wek8k/my_recruiters_comments_on_the_tefl_job_market_in/


Pretty much sums it up, applying for EPIK positions has become notably more competitive. The jobs are still there and for experienced people 2.1 seems to be the norm still but it's a little harder to find a job across the board in any type of institute. Also I could find sources for the decline in side benefits like housing and airfare but I'm too lazy. It's all over this board anyway.

People say it's too simplistic of an outlook but the amount of university graduates in my country has around doubled in the last 20 years, many of them are essentially unemployable with the current market/degree types. A lot of them are choosing to go abroad to teach. So combined with the decline in jobs, things aren't looking too good even for the qualified individuals in asia (not only Korea) as it's the number one newbie teaching destination. At least I'm just assuming it is but it seems obviously so.
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Weigookin74



Joined: 26 Oct 2009

PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2016 9:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JohnML wrote:
Weigookin74 wrote:
http://www.asiapundits.com/korea-cuts-2500-native-english-teachers-public-schools/

https://www.reddit.com/r/TEFL/comments/3wek8k/my_recruiters_comments_on_the_tefl_job_market_in/


Pretty much sums it up, applying for EPIK positions has become notably more competitive. The jobs are still there and for experienced people 2.1 seems to be the norm still but it's a little harder to find a job across the board in any type of institute. Also I could find sources for the decline in side benefits like housing and airfare but I'm too lazy. It's all over this board anyway.

People say it's too simplistic of an outlook but the amount of university graduates in my country has around doubled in the last 20 years, many of them are essentially unemployable with the current market/degree types. A lot of them are choosing to go abroad to teach. So combined with the decline in jobs, things aren't looking too good even for the qualified individuals in asia (not only Korea) as it's the number one newbie teaching destination. At least I'm just assuming it is but it seems obviously so.


Friend in China just told me they are asking you to verifiy the degrees there now. Too many folks with fake degrees. If this happens, there'll be even more jobs for waygook teachers with real degrees. There already is a huge demand even with these fake degree hosers increasing competition somewhat.
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World Traveler



Joined: 29 May 2009

PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2016 12:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ttompatz wrote:
I think it will shrink slightly but will hold at about the 20,000 E2s level in the longer run (next decade or so).
Like Japan the craze has slowed, the market has stabilized (in terms of overall job numbers) and will sustain itself at close to present levels.

Demand is drastically declining:
http://populargusts.blogspot.kr/2016/03/immigration-statistics-showing-e-2.html
Quote:
E-2 numbers are now below 2007 figures.
Quote:
the number of hagwon-employed E-2s peaked in 2008.

At the same time supply (the number of applicants) is going up due to an increased awareness of Korea / an increased awareness of the opportunity to teach English overseas / a maturing market. So much competition now. More people are getting into it / staying, even as the market shrinks.
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Weigookin74



Joined: 26 Oct 2009

PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2016 9:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

World Traveler wrote:
ttompatz wrote:
I think it will shrink slightly but will hold at about the 20,000 E2s level in the longer run (next decade or so).
Like Japan the craze has slowed, the market has stabilized (in terms of overall job numbers) and will sustain itself at close to present levels.

Demand is drastically declining:
http://populargusts.blogspot.kr/2016/03/immigration-statistics-showing-e-2.html
Quote:
E-2 numbers are now below 2007 figures.
Quote:
the number of hagwon-employed E-2s peaked in 2008.

At the same time supply (the number of applicants) is going up due to an increased awareness of Korea / an increased awareness of the opportunity to teach English overseas / a maturing market. So much competition now. More people are getting into it / staying, even as the market shrinks.


E2 Visas by year.

1993 - 1,136
1994 - 2,241
1995 - 4,230
1996 - 7,473
1997 - 7,607
1998 - 4,927
1999 - 5,009
2000 - 6,414
2001 - 8,388
2002 - 10,864
2003 - 10,822
2004 - 11,344
2005 - 12,439
2006 - 15,001
2007 - 17,721
2008 - 19,771
2009 - 22,642
2010 - 23,317
2011 - 22,541
2012 - 21,603
2013 - 20,030
2014 - 17,949
2015 - 16,144


Peak was 2010. Now less are here due to China and the USA recovering. Lots of ASAP offers for hakwons. Public still competitive for now. But probably not for much longer if this trend continues.
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World Traveler



Joined: 29 May 2009

PostPosted: Thu Mar 31, 2016 12:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Supply has exceeded demand since 2010. If E-2 numbers are going down, it's because the number of jobs is going down. (The number of applicants is probably higher than it's ever been.)

Look at the number of NETs working in public schools in Busan:

2012: 528
2013: 399
2014: 304
2015: 170

That's quite the decline.
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Fallacy



Joined: 29 Jun 2015
Location: ex-ROK

PostPosted: Thu Mar 31, 2016 3:57 am    Post subject: RE: Why the market is flooded Reply with quote

World Traveler wrote:
That's quite the decline.
Precisely. Get out now, ahead of the stampede. There is little reason for anyone to stay just to watch as society tries to grapple with managing the decline. "The market is flooded" analogy is probably not as descriptively accurate, for a drought has evaporated water faster than the fish have been able to escape the receding levels. There is currently a run on the pension funds, so get yours out now before outflows are halted.
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JohnML



Joined: 05 Jul 2015

PostPosted: Thu Mar 31, 2016 4:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

World Traveler wrote:
ttompatz wrote:
I think it will shrink slightly but will hold at about the 20,000 E2s level in the longer run (next decade or so).
Like Japan the craze has slowed, the market has stabilized (in terms of overall job numbers) and will sustain itself at close to present levels.

Demand is drastically declining:
http://populargusts.blogspot.kr/2016/03/immigration-statistics-showing-e-2.html
Quote:
E-2 numbers are now below 2007 figures.
Quote:
the number of hagwon-employed E-2s peaked in 2008.

At the same time supply (the number of applicants) is going up due to an increased awareness of Korea / an increased awareness of the opportunity to teach English overseas / a maturing market. So much competition now. More people are getting into it / staying, even as the market shrinks.


That's extremely interesting and just as I thought, the overall num of expats in Korea has been on the increase due to high skilled labour + cheap labour from neighbouring countries. There are plenty of industries that are seeing a growth for expatriates in Korea but yeah, teaching isn't one of them. I wonder when the cuts will tail off. I don't see it ever recovering to what it was before.
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PatrickGHBusan



Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Location: Busan (1997-2008) Canada 2008 -

PostPosted: Thu Mar 31, 2016 4:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Look to Japan for a comparable morphing of the ESL industry. Korea is going through the same process.

Adjust accordingly.
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