Korean Job Discussion Forums

Kiddirts · Joined: 25 Jul 2003

Whaddya think?

supernick · Joined: 24 Jan 2003 Location: Seoul

Can you say ' peso"?

Will it breaK 1000W? Most likely. less than 10 years ago it was around 700, so i think it will return to near those levels in the next year or so. My guess is, is that Asian currencies will gain against the greenback.

Wangja · Joined: 17 May 2004 Location: Seoul, Yongsan

My guess - and it is a guess .... 950 KRW within 12 months.

Short the USD if you can.

Russia is selling USD and buying EUR.

More oil contracts will be made in EUR.

There will be less demand for USD.

As demand for the USD falls, more will seek to sell.

There are more dollars in circulation outside the USA than within.

As confidence falls in the USD then all those dollar bills hidden in matresses will surface and be exchanged for whatever is the "confidence" currency: maybe EUR, maybe SFR.

As Asian governments see their USD loans dropping in value, they will swicth too.

Inflation will rise in US: interest rates are already on the way up. 5% within two years? (That is a wild guess).

On the plus side, Americans, already reeling under personal (dollar denonimated) debt will retrench and start saving: they will import less and buy more home-grown products.

If oil is priced in EUR oil consumption will drop and most notably, discretionary consumption (by SUV's for example) will drop in relation to the pump price. Kyoto by the back door, courtesy of GWB?

The US govt will see the value of its debt drop.

The budget deficit will increase as tax revenue falls and socila security spending increases.

The trade deficit will be reduced.

Military excursions will be financially undesirable.

All IMHO of course ....

hellofaniceguy · Joined: 10 Jan 2003 Location: On your computer screen!

The exchange rates are always going up and down. Always have been and always will be.
The US dollar is losing..but so do other countries. It will all ballance out.
One thing for sure...the US dollar WILL ALWAYS be the one to bet on. ALWAYS! For as long as you are on earth alive and kicking...it's the US DOLLAR!

schwa · Joined: 18 Jan 2003 Location: Yap

Uh, okay. There we have it on good authority I guess. Thanks for clearing that up.

peemil · Joined: 09 Feb 2003 Location: Koowoompa

Wangja makes a good case...

The US is on a serious little slide at the moment and this type of behaviour isn't helping...

Kiddirts · Joined: 25 Jul 2003

I'm just so proud of myself for beating "Real Reality" to it...

http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356

Wangja · Joined: 17 May 2004 Location: Seoul, Yongsan

Tough to fault the logic: I was especially taken with a re-appearance of the rule of 7. When interest rates are 7%, your money doubles in 10 years and when interest rates are 10% it doubles in 7.

We have not had such high inflation and interest rates for a while, could they both be on the way back?

Over 2 billion USD needed every day just to finance the US deficit! And that assumes it does not increase ..... and personal debt is 80% of GDP.

How long will Asian central banks keep buying those T-bonds yielding less than 5% with the USD having dropped arond 10% since June?

Cash is King, folks, Cash is King.

But hold KRW, JPY, HKD or SFR.

(All IMHO of course, no financial advice intended)

Wangja · Joined: 17 May 2004 Location: Seoul, Yongsan

http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/SITE/data/html_dir/2004/11/25/200411250024.asp

Seemingly the central bank intervened yesterday at a low of 1060: is that the ceiling they will work to for the KRW?

But when markets move, whole governments can be powerless to stop ...

And that, I would suggest, would not exclude the US government. In essence, to stop a panic slide (I am not suggesting that is likely) they would have to buy all the dollars outside the US, being approximately half the currency in circulation. And they would have to do so with JPY, EUR, GBP or whatever they had in reserve. And even then, it might not be enough.

Interesting times indeed ...

Swiss James · Joined: 26 Nov 2003 Location: Shanghai

*thinks about buying "The Dummy's Guide To Financial Markets"*

Zyzyfer · Posted: Wed Nov 24, 2004 10:46 pm Post subject:

Wangja · Joined: 17 May 2004 Location: Seoul, Yongsan

If you're paid in KRW and if you believe the USD will drop, say, another 10% in the next year, why not wait until then to pay off the loans?

Zyzyfer · Posted: Wed Nov 24, 2004 10:54 pm Post subject:

Wangja · Joined: 17 May 2004 Location: Seoul, Yongsan

Are they fixed amounts? Can you reduce them to a minimum? Is there a penalty for not keeoing them up? What is the interest rate?

Or, simply revel in the USD rate on a monthly basis and clear 'em as fast as you can ....

steelhead · Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2004 6:09 am Post subject: my currency dilema

I am Canadian, and the canadian Dollar is doing very well.

I am wondering if this is a godo time to buy US dollars?vs Canadian?

ANY THOUGHTS???