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If the US ends its alliance with S. Korea...
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jinglejangle



Joined: 19 Feb 2005
Location: Far far far away.

PostPosted: Sun Mar 27, 2005 7:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I used to feel the same way about the DPRK threat that several of you do.
However, I no longer believe there is a significant threat.
South Korea spends more annually on defense than the DPRK GNP.
And that's without straining themselves.
The DPRK has around 700,000 (or possibly 900,000, I forget which I read) troops forward deployed. The ROK has 540,000 between Seoul and the DMZ. Both have massive reserves as well.
However, you have to figure, attacking entrenched opponents typically requires about one to three odds, unless you have serious PGMs, and the ROK is the 2nd most heavily entrenched nation in the world, after the DPRK.
The ROK also has a real air force, and a much stronger (albiet numerically smaller) navy. The ROK has PGMs, I would imagine, though I don't know. The DPRK probably has some too, but it's unlikely that they have many.
If the DPRK invaded, and no one came to the ROKs aid, I think the ROK would win, in the sense that I think the DPRK would fail to conquer the penninsula. It would undoubtedly be a bloody affair, but I don't believe the north has the wherewithal to conquer the south.

That is of course entirely ignoring the fact that neither still communism hating Japan, nor America would ever allow the DPRK to just get away with it. Even without a division and some support units here at the start of the fighting, the USAF and USN would rapidly demolish large sectors of the north. I suspect that Japan, with the 2nd strongest navy (after the US) and a very good air force would also be rapidly involved. I would also expect rapid movemet of fast reaction forces (ie airbourne) from places like the UK, Thailand, Japan, Australia, and NZ.
In the case of a non US provoked war, I don't think there is any real question of the reaction of the worlds champions of democracy or the UN in general. I suspect, in fact, that pretty much the entire EU would be sending some form of support to the south.

I think we should go back home, and stay the hell out of the ROK.
So the Koreans will say we're abandoning them. So what. They won't be happy with us either way. And frankly, their saftey and economic well-being, pray for both though I do, does not seem to me to be the US's responsibility.

Even if they can't stand on their own, that is hardly our fault. We've propped them up for 50 years. During at least the last couple decades, their economy, not to mention their ability to both purchase and produce advanced weaponry, has been worlds ahead of the north's. They've chosen to spend less on defense then on makig themselves comfortable.
I'm ot saying that was a bad choice. As I said, I feel that they have a very capable military. If, however, it was a bad choice, then the onus falls squarely on their shoulders. Repeatedly we have asked them, and they have refused, to take on more of the burden of their defense. Abandon them? No, I think it's time daddy kicked them out of the house and let them stand up on their own. Yes, it's possible they may get knocked around a bit, but I think they'll survive it, and be stronger for it in the long run. And they'll never grow up as a nation without it.

My two cents. Please bear in mind that these are only my own half baked opinions. They reflect no one else's. At least, not intentionally.

If you want to check out my sources, I recommend taking a look around the Korean War Memorial, which is a reasonably nice museum located at Samgakji, on subway line 4, across the street from the Dept of Defense; as well as the book "North Korea" by Bruce Cummings. He is quite biased, and has an axe to grind with Pres. Bush, but by and large I think it is a very informative book, ad certainly provides a good opposing view to the main stream media.

Heck, I recommend checking out both things on their own merit as well.

Enjoy.

Many more delightful debates ahead I hope, but I think I've said all I ca say on this one.
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Hyalucent



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: British North America

PostPosted: Sun Mar 27, 2005 7:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The question isn't ability, it's desire. Will South Korean troops engage North Koreans in combat or will they try to offer them soju?
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Keepongoing



Joined: 13 Feb 2003
Location: Korea

PostPosted: Sun Mar 27, 2005 12:26 pm    Post subject: leave Reply with quote

i was a soldier here when i was 19. I came here by orders of my country. With most of the male students I have spoken to they hate the military and see no reason to have to go.

I think a point needs to come where the US leaves Korea. It would be difficult at first, but I think Korea would grow nd mature as a result. In one form or another they have had a contingency of foreigners on their land and the US does have a lot of influence. I think it would become benefit korea in the long run.

The Philippines did it and seem to be surviving. It is not quite the same thing, but isn't it the first time the Philippines has noty had a contingency of foreigners? I do not mean expats, I mean military or colonialists.

Korea can do it without the US. Fighting!!!!!
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lastat06513



Joined: 18 Mar 2003
Location: Sensus amo Caesar , etiamnunc victus amo uni plebian

PostPosted: Sun Mar 27, 2005 7:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First, this is what and has been the results of the US presence on the Korean peninsula;

1. Economic growth
2. Stable security environment
3. Consumer/ Foreign investment confidence
4. Social growth

1. Economic growth~ Korea would not be able to grow economically without the US being able to pour billions of dollars into the country in the form of aid during the 60's and 70's. Pres. Park used the aid during his "Saemaul" movement to help boost the economy to the point that it surpassed North Korea (believe or not, at one point, North Korea was ahead of South Korea in Economic output, until 1968). And it was only after Korea successfully pulled off the Olylimpics and conduct free democratic elections that allowed the economy to stabilize.
And I know the US and Korea have a pact that allows US companies a chance to bid on government contracts before any other foreign company (hence the K-1 fighter contract). So, the US is tied economically to Korea.

2. Stable security environment~ Until 1991, there were about 50,000 US soldiers in Korea, not to mention the unit rotations in and away from the DMZ. The US formed, trained and financed the ROK army into what it is today. It is only recently that Korea started to buy Russian equipment (but that was part of a payback plan with Russia). And without the US presence, the economy wouldn't have been able to grow at the 3% to 5% it did pre-IMF.

3. Consumer/ Foreign investment confidence~~ Becuase if the stable security and growing economy, Korea was able to get the consumers to spend more and attract many foreign capital into the country.

4. Social growth~ Hard to believe, but alot of the cities in Korea today were just small villages before the Korean war and until the 1960's. Alot of the towns like Anyang (now part of Seoul), Pyongtaek, Osan, Busan (the provisional capital during tre Korean war) sprang up around the US army bases in their areas. Alot of shops opened for the soldiers there in the hopes of attracting their dollars and business.

Now, what will happen if the US left Korea?

~ Economic growth- Alot of the local economies that depended on the US military presence will collapse, sending more people into the cities to find jobs, thus putting more stress on the government to make jobs for them. Unemployment would rise, fostering discontent that might lead to an economic collapse of the Korean economy.

~ Stable security environment- The National Manpower Administration will review the security situation and request an increase in the amount of soldiers needed for national defense (means less alternative compulsory jobs available) and a frenzy of military spending to counter the loss of US government money for defense. Raising the military spending and in turn raising taxes to pay for it, increasing prices and causing consumer hardship. Not to mention that the situation would be ripe for a North Korea attack with about 50,000 infiltrators already in the country (1000 in the KATUSA program alone{*1})*2

~Consumer/ Foreign investment confidence- Already burdened by high prices and low wages, consumers will be less willing to spend more and decide to save most of their earnings. This means less money being spent and people having to do without because of the high prices on alot of everyday items. And.....because of the questionable security situation coupled already with the miscontent of the Korean labor market (Citibankand such), more foreign companies would be less inclined to invest in Korea and some companies would even start to pull out of the country as well. This would send the stock market tumbling to next to nothing.

~ Social growth- Alot of people who lost their jobs would start streaming into the cities in look of decent jobs (this can hurt us because there will be fewer places to teach), thus saturating the already burdened job market. This would create new shanty towns on the outskirts of places like Seoul and Taegu. People would become so discontent that they might start protesting and possibly rioting in demand of jobs. Plus, since marriage and birthrates depend so much on the economy, more people would decline marriage for work and the birthrate would be next to zero because they begin to think they can't take care of children in such a dismal economic situation.

All this and the rise of some of society's ills;

1. Armed robbery
2. Increased Prostitution
3. Family suicides
4. Military revolts and possible coups
5. Mass unemployment
6. Mass rioting/ looting
7. Social chaos

All this is possible if the US military leaves Korea
Maybe.....not exactly, but it could stand as a worst case scenerio.

*1- The Intelligence report by J-3, 2ID during the Ulchi Focus Lense Training exercise, 1997

2*- Jane's military Journal, circa. 1998, an article about the concern of NK commandos already infiltrated into South Korea and based on assumptions from the submarine infiltration attempt in Jung Dong Jin in 1996.
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Hyalucent



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: British North America

PostPosted: Sun Mar 27, 2005 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

... cats and dogs, living together... mass hysteria!...
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rapier



Joined: 16 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Sun Mar 27, 2005 8:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think a gradual, piece by piece, US withdrawal, over the next 10-15 years, is undoubtedly the best possible solution. It would allow Korea to adjust slowly and effectively, and pave the way for eventual reunification based on a steadily maturing and credible dialogue between the 2 koreas- with nobody else involved.
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dbee



Joined: 29 Dec 2004
Location: korea

PostPosted: Sun Mar 27, 2005 9:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think that in some respects, Korea is ahead of the game - both locally and internationally. The Koreans by their nature, work very hard, study well, they are very socially mobile and also have a valuable sense of community.

What they lack most, is leadership and direction. The work-study-sleep schedule which this country seems to be on is a healthy one. But it's not pointed in the right direction (I reckon!).

They study hard, but their universities are crap. They're constant preoccupation with esl comes to practically nothing, because they are completely unwilling to come to terms with the fact that language isn't something that just exists in a textbook. They eschew western culture and thought, and refuse to accept it into their own. Language and culture go hand in hand, you can't import one and stop the other at immigration.

Also their absolute zero sense of international trade / fair play / respect of foreign nations, will hurt their export economy in the long run. As will their insistance of seeing themselves as superior to other peoples ...
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rapier



Joined: 16 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Sun Mar 27, 2005 9:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Their overweaning arrogance, inferiority complex and lack of responsibility for their own actions and direction must come to an end- as it is based on an unacknowledged reliance on the west that they simultaneously resent and crave. Its an artificial scenario, and nothing to do with reality.
its time for them to step up to the plate, grow up, and become a trult independent nation manageing their own affairs and foreign relations.
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zappadelta



Joined: 31 Aug 2004

PostPosted: Sun Mar 27, 2005 11:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The lack of appreciation shown by many Korean towards the US really confuses me and pisses me off sometimes.
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jinglejangle



Joined: 19 Feb 2005
Location: Far far far away.

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

While I respect the fact that you seem to have at least thought about the issue somewhat. I disagree with you about 90%
But there's only one thing I really want to take you to task on, just because I found it hysterical, so I want to mock you and laugh at you. Hopefully you'll tke it well, mock and laugh back, and nothing will be achieved.
lastat06513 wrote:

All this and the rise of some of society's ills;

1. Armed robbery
2. Increased Prostitution
3. Family suicides
4. Military revolts and possible coups
5. Mass unemployment
6. Mass rioting/ looting
7. Social chaos

All this is possible if the US military leaves Korea


Since when exactly has the US Military had aything to do with prevention of armed robbery or suicide? We haven't really prevented many coups over here either. We sit by and watch them happen, and then carry on with the new regime.

And isn't the US Military usually blamed for prostitution? We certainly do jack to prevent it. We do, it's true, take some steps to keep US soldiers out of the cathouses, but the US Army does not play any role what so ever in local law enforcement here. Nor should we.

Are you serious about the suicide thing? What's a "family suicide" anyway? Are you high? "Oh my God the Americans are gone! I miss them so! Honey, quick, cut the childrens throats and while I whip up some strychnine tea."

Come on man. If you're gonna throw out comments like the US withdrawal will lead to rioting ad mass social chaos, other than every college student in Seoul spotaeneously throwing a city wide block party and day of celebration, at least provide us a reason.

I assume you mean because the economy will crash due to the withdrawal of foreign investment and the oh so horrible loss of income for PX cashiers and Itaewon bartenders (since most of the bargirls are foreign anyway I think.) but at least saySOMETHING. Left out in the open by themselves your comments seem quite ridiculous.

But either way, yes, I agree that the ecomomy would temporarily suffer, but outside of an unlikely war, I doubt very seriously that South Korean social structure is going to collapse overnight without the US here. Give the Koreans some credit at least. They did take far less aid from us than a lot of countries, and did much more with it then most.

They'll be fine.
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matthewwoodford



Joined: 01 Oct 2003
Location: Location, location, location.

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2005 2:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

South Korea relies on the US for air and naval support, as well as communications and other military technology, not to mention nukes as a last resort. People are saying they should be grateful for that or else that it's time they stood on their own 2 feet, but I think you have to consider the position of the South Korean government.

Considering how long and how much it takes to develop your own airplanes, subs, missiles, etc...that's not a realistic option for Korea any time soon. The other option is purchase from abroad but it really doesn't pay them to do that when the US has a vested interest in keeping its military cutting edge and deployed in Korea. It may look ungrateful but military purchasing is a very expensive way of showing gratitude. Add to that the likely reaction of North Korea to South Korea buying a large airforce, and the reaction of international investors, and you can see why the South Korean government doesn't want to rock the boat.

Keeping troops here is partly a matter of prestige and credibility for the US. There's also the fact that Korea is a satellite economy of the US, like just about everywhere nowadays. I find it hard to believe that the profits of this relationship are all one way. The US gets a source of cheap manufactured goods (sold cheaper in the US than here) and a market for raw materials. Of course the US has many satellites and Korea only has one giant export market so far, so Korea needs the US more than the US needs Korea: but that just means the US is in a position to dictate the terms of trade it wants. So Korea should be grateful for having a good trading partner in the US - although it was construction and shipbuilding contracts with Middle Eastern countries that were vital to the South Korean economic miracle - but Koreans don't have to be grateful for their entire economy.

It looks like some people, Americans in particular, are confused and annoyed by Korean ingratitude, because they expected to be treated as saviours. Well, just a few points: first, a lot of people, especially older people, *are* grateful, and you see them on pro-American demos; second, America saved Korea from the Japanese but not on purpose; third, Korea would have elected a single government of some flavour of socialism if left to itself but America installed its own preferred government in the south thereby creating two rival governments and countries where there had been one; lastly, North Korea today would not be the same country without the 'liberation' of South Korea as the raison d'etre for many of its policies including spending half the economy on the military, so while there's no way it would be prosperous you can't assume it would be starving.

If anyone read this far, all I'm saying is, it's not as simple as 'America saved the South from North Korea and they'd be eating grass today if it hadn't', which seems to be what a lot of posters think, and a lot of people say irl.
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riverboy



Joined: 03 Jun 2003
Location: Incheon

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Finally an intelligent thread with well thought out replies. Congtatulations to everyone who posted
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redbird



Joined: 07 Mar 2005

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2005 11:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

zappadelta wrote:
The lack of appreciation shown by many Korean towards the US really confuses me and pisses me off sometimes.


I look at the occasional nastiness as a badge of honor for South Korea and the Liberal Democratic system we insisted they adopt. Look at the North Koreans for the counterexample. We pass off anti-American rhetoric from their streets as a contrivance of their gov't. When South Koreans are rude, it hurts our feelings because we know they're freer to speak their minds. That South Koreans' feelings toward the U.S. run the gamut is proof of freedom and success.

Look at another example. U.S. presidents have often gotten along better with Pakistan's dictators than with India's elected leaders. Why? Well, democracy is messy. India's leaders have to consult with their political partners, while a dictator can deliver much more, whether or not that's actually good for Pakistan's people.

Have countries like Pakistan and North Korea been good neighbors? Hell, no! Pakistan, despite (or because of) its dictator's cooperation with the U.S., has been a vortex for instability the last ten years, with initial support for the Taliban and nuclear arms sales to North Korea and possibly Libya.

Those of us who are pro-democracy and value free speech really need to grow up a little. When citizens of other countries exhibit mixed feelings toward the U.S., that's often a sign of substantial progress-- really a victory for Liberal Democracy.
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drgoo



Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Location: Home, sweet home

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="rapier"]
dbee wrote:
[
The reality is, is that the bigger, tougher, stronger northerns quote]

Have you seen those poor malnourished critters up there? Every photo i've seen of a North Korean pictured with a foreign tourist shows them as thin 5ft runts.

The reality is that 50 years of ruination has left North koreans unable to lift a paperweight, never mind defeat the strong SK army. The only card protecting them now is Kim's Nuclear device rhetoric.


"The only card protecting them now is Kim's Nuclear device rhetoric."

I saw this and have to ask... protecting them from what, exactly? SK? The US? China? Are they worried about invasion or a unified Korea?

If the US pulls out of SK will war break out? If so, over what?
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redbird



Joined: 07 Mar 2005

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

drgoo wrote:


"The only card protecting them now is Kim's Nuclear device rhetoric."

I saw this and have to ask... protecting them from what, exactly? SK? The US? China? Are they worried about invasion or a unified Korea?

If the US pulls out of SK will war break out? If so, over what?


Given the present US administration's recent foreign policy choices, I'd say it's rational for North Korea (and maybe Iran) to fear a US invasion. I'm not saying I think it will happen, only that it's not an irrational fear. And, yeah, the possibility that NK has even one nuclear weapon poses a major obstacle to a US invasion.

The most interesting article I've read about NK's nuclear ambitions suggested that the bomb gives NK something to bring to the table during negotiations over unification. I mean, think about it-- NK has precious little else to give South Korea after unification. Nuclear weapons gives NK something to contribute, a way to save some face. When you add in that Korea then would be a nuclear power while Japan would not...
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