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If the US ends its alliance with S. Korea...
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lastat06513



Joined: 18 Mar 2003
Location: Sensus amo Caesar , etiamnunc victus amo uni plebian

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

redbird wrote
Quote:
the possibility that NK has even one nuclear weapon poses a major obstacle to a US invasion.


Well, the US kinda knew the North had nuclear weapons as far back as 1997 (based on what I was told) and the US did find a solution to that "obstacle"; To simply nuke the country to oblivion.
The US has a long standing policy that when faced with a nuclear threat. they will respond in the same manner- that's why there are 2 US nuclear submarines (one along the east coast and another along the west) that are equipped with as many as 10 missiles each with the orders to blow North Korea off the grid "once the balloon goes up".

The major obstacle is not North Korea, but South Korea in that they refuse to participate in their defence let alone allow the US to retaliate in case of a major provacation. But that is nothing new, the South started to say this even during the administration of their first democratically elected president, Kim Young Sam.

About my last post~ true, it was a bit "far fetched", but you must think of it from a Korean standpoint. Korea loves to blame others for their shortcomings and if the US does "unilaterally withdrawal" from Korea, if anything was to happen, it would surely be blamed on the US.

My little skit;

Young Mi: How are you today?

Eun Hee: Not good. My dog got sick and I had to take him to the vet.

Young Mi: So, what did the vet say?

Eun Hee: He said that Kumi had lead poisoning. I don't know how, I always give her bottled water to drink.

Young Mi: Wait! Don't you live in Haebangchon?

Eun Hee: Yeah, so?

Young Mi: Didn't you know that the US has been polluting the water in that area for years? I think your dog got sick from that.

Eun Hee: I think you're right, those F#$^ing Americans!

Young Mi: But....isn't your boyfriend an American soldier?

Eun Hee: Not anymore. I'll break up with him and try to find a Canadian English Teacher.

Young Mi: Yeah, Canada has never done anything bad to Korea.
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Kiddirts



Joined: 25 Jul 2003

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2005 7:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

funplanet wrote:
Perhaps it's time they sink or swim on their own...I would love to see the US military pull out and end all security agreements with the SKG

They need to grow up and join the real world and perhaps a little shock treatment would help 'em....China wants them, China can have them

You want us back? uh, sorry but no. We'll stick with our friends thank you very much

but as always, if the s* were to hit the fan the US would be right by their side and the US would still get no gratitude....


exactly!
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Wangja



Joined: 17 May 2004
Location: Seoul, Yongsan

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2005 8:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As long as two-thirds of the "Axis of Evil" remain, GWB will stay parked next door.
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Vince



Joined: 05 May 2003

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2005 9:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for your replies, everybody.

From the press I've seen, I too get the impression that many South Koreans would accuse the US of unjustly abandoning it and even setting it up for invasion. I've tactfully bounced a few such ideas off some of my Korean students, and they didn't seem very comfortable when I started skirting the possibility of the US pulling out of SK or reforming immigration to end the anchor baby practice.

In conversations when I could use other countries as an example, I shared my traditional conservative American perspectives. It was clear that the Korean students generally didn't see American soldiers as sons and daughters of ordinary people, or that Americans might, like most other countries, want to tend to their own backyard and leave other people's problems to them. I was satisfied to see them grow to the realization that it's absurd for them to put their eggs in the US-dependence basket.

I agree that US troops won't be pulling out while the neocons are in control. I hope that situation (the neocons and US presence in S. Korea) changes soon.


Last edited by Vince on Mon Mar 28, 2005 11:29 pm; edited 2 times in total
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jinglejangle



Joined: 19 Feb 2005
Location: Far far far away.

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2005 9:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A couple replys. I have not the imagination to come up with my own thoughts I fear. Only to critique others. Embarassed

Matt Woodford, I think you underestimate the ROK's current weapons programs. They manufacture a lot of very high tech major weapons systems, as well as a lot of lesser equipment.
They have either the first or s2nd largest shipbuilding industry in the world as well, so to manufacture warships, they have a lot of the expensive end of setup out of the way already. I think that the ROK is probably exporting high end warships rather than importing, and I believe that most of their very capabloe navy is homegrown.

I would appreciate anyone who can shed more facts supported light on this subject. I know little for certain.

Either way, very few nations build a lot of their own stuff nowadays. The ROK wouldn't so much have to develop high tech weapons as to buy them on the open market.

Redbird, right on man! What you said flits through my head now and again, but I always lose it in the frustration of things. Thanks for the reminder.

As for the latest stuff about Nukes and the Axis of Evil.
I think you are dead wrong. One or two DPRK nukes is not likely to stop Bush from attacking, if the military establishment is convinced they can take out most of the advanced delivery platforms before the DPRK can launch a strike. I suspect they can, although I really don't know. Remember, before those missles would be launched, they would need orders. And the US is really good at blowing up C4I stuff, as we've seen before in Bosnia and the Gulf. Therefore the bombers and killers might have longer to blow stuff up than you might think.

But that's all long shopt spoeculation on my part.

What I don't feel is long shot at all, is that Bush is unlikely to obtain support for an invasion from either the ROK or Japan anytime soon. Unlikely as in I am unlikely to suddenly grow a 2nd *beep* anytime soon, however useful it might prove.
It seems to me much more likely that Bush would have to launch more limited war. ie. an air war, possibly invading with mobile units like USMC and Airbourne, but probably limited to SOF.
I don't think there is a chance in hell of him getting the ROK to allow the use of ROK territory for a stageing ground unless he can provoke the DPRK into attacking.

Bear in mind, I don't think he will, but as long as he's in office, I would personally (when I get to be a civilian again, regard the complete no warning redeployment of forces here to anywhere other than Iraq as a sign to go back for an extended visit in the states.

But I wouldn't worry too much ya'll. We're pretty thouroughly tied down in Iraq right now. The most I could see would be an airstrike against the Yangbyon or whatever reactor complex, and I doubt even that will happen.
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Alias



Joined: 24 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2005 11:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I remember last year when one Kyopo wrote a letter to the Korean Herald saying that if the US were to withdraw from South Korean then the US should have to pay for SK's increased defence spending. Shocked

He felt this was the US's responisbility because they were responsible for the two Korea's being two separate countries. His reasoning behind this was that the US signed the armistice in 1953 and not South Korean representatives.
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jinglejangle



Joined: 19 Feb 2005
Location: Far far far away.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2005 12:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Alias wrote:
I remember last year when one Kyopo wrote a letter to the Korean Herald saying that if the US were to withdraw from South Korean then the US should have to pay for SK's increased defence spending. Shocked

He felt this was the US's responisbility because they were responsible for the two Korea's being two separate countries. His reasoning behind this was that the US signed the armistice in 1953 and not South Korean representatives.


I disagree that we owe the Koreans anything, considering that we did liberate their country twice. On the other hand, I think it was pretty poor form on our part to quit when we did instead of seizing the north and keeping it.

I also hear a lot of folks saying that we should never have intervened in the fighting at all, that the US should have let the Koreans proceed on the established path to socialism. I agree with that insofar as, yes, they almost certainly would have become socialist if left to their own devices, and we did interfere. But I take things a little further and look at that this way. We weren't the only ones meddling in Korean affairs. The Russians and Chinese were busily setting up, not a freely elected socialist society, but a communist dictatorship in as much of the country as they could. The Russians thouroughly demonstrated that they were not content with mere socialism or free elections in any country they could dominate. They only supported those when they couldn't get better, such as in Western Europe.
In addition, there were already a large number of rabidly communist Koreans under arms with strong political pull in the PRC Communist Party even before the end of WWII. They would, IMHO, have taken the bloody path to out and out communism irregardless. They were used to violent means, they had already played a major part in the conquest of China, and they generally lacked the education or mentality to allow peaceful free election of a less than fully communist nation.
And lest any claim that a unified country under communism would have been much better than what they have now, I would say, in the long run, possibly, at least if we don't consider a booming economy to be the chief ideal.
In the short term however, the Commuists killed a lot of people in the north, and when they came south, they massacered plenty folks there too. (Although it's debatable whether they massacered more than the South Koreans did during their brief seizure of the north, or in their purges of the southern communists either.) I believe that the US/UN's actions were trully motivated by virtuous beliefs, even if they were not 100% certainly the best goals, they were guided by a generousity and the desire to help.

Now the way we fought the war, by indiscriminantly firebombing every population center we could find, was pretty dispicable. But that was one more result of that times power play by the air power generals to make air power the chief branch of the military. If the US should apologize for anything, it's the fact that we wantonly slaughtered enormous numbers of civilians in complete violation of all the laws of "civilized warfare."
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matthewwoodford



Joined: 01 Oct 2003
Location: Location, location, location.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2005 2:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

lastat06513 wrote:
redbird wrote
Quote:
the possibility that NK has even one nuclear weapon poses a major obstacle to a US invasion.


Well, the US kinda knew the North had nuclear weapons as far back as 1997 (based on what I was told) and the US did find a solution to that "obstacle"; To simply nuke the country to oblivion.
The US has a long standing policy that when faced with a nuclear threat. they will respond in the same manner- that's why there are 2 US nuclear submarines (one along the east coast and another along the west) that are equipped with as many as 10 missiles each with the orders to blow North Korea off the grid "once the balloon goes up".

The major obstacle is not North Korea, but South Korea in that they refuse to participate in their defence let alone allow the US to retaliate in case of a major provacation. But that is nothing new, the South started to say this even during the administration of their first democratically elected president, Kim Young Sam.



As far as we know, the US mainland is not threatened by North Korean nukes - although US military bases of course are - but naturally the US government can't go taking it for granted the Norks don't or won't ever have ICBM capability. Nuking North Korea means defence for the US - although how well protected would GIs in Seoul be from fall-out - but it's not much of a defence for South Korea when their entire country would be covered in lethal radioactive fall-out. Most of Europe, particularly Germany and other countries along the iron curtain, felt exactly the same during the cold war: war meant they'd be destroyed. South Korea and the US have different interests.

One nuclear bomb, 'crude' or not, dropped on Seoul is all it would take to cripple South Korea, not to mention kill all of us. Talk about sword of Damocles. Knowing that the US has subs waiting to respond in kind or launch a pre-emptive strike is somehow not reassuring.

jinglejangle: I don't doubt South Korea can make warships, but what are they going to arm them with? They don't have anything like Aegis, or do they? Don't know enough to say for sure.
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lastat06513



Joined: 18 Mar 2003
Location: Sensus amo Caesar , etiamnunc victus amo uni plebian

PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

matthewwoodford~~The context that the US would use the weapons in any pre-emptive strike is almost unheard of, though is not "off the table". Also the US and SK have decon units for military and civil use to clean up the left over fall-out, though I must agree with you, it won't do us any good if we're already ashes.

I just found another interesting article about the USFK.

http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200503/200503280043.html

It seems they are now being percieved as shake-down artists who extort money and "services" from local communities.
How does the US put up with this?

I was a soldier. I can honestly say that about 50% or more of the career minded will end up doing at least 4 to 5 tours in Korea during their
20-year career. On some bases, it is a rotating cycle every 2 years to come here. The only other way to get out of it will be to a DECA [forgot the spelling] statement (declination of assignment), which means the end of their career, a bar to re-enlistment and in some isolated cases, a loss of some benefits. So, alot of them don't want to risk losing everything they spent years earning.
Or volunteer for an overseas tour to Germany (a one-way ticket to Iraq, I now hear).
The soldiers coming to Korea are mostly first-termers fresh out of training who have not been outside their own hometown let alone the US. So, they get a distorted picture of Korea.

But many of the mid-term soldiers try to avoid Korea like the pleague. For women, alot of them just get pregnant (instead overseas bar, as well as a way to get of the army).

This was a famous case at Fort Huachuca in Arizona.

A motor sergeant found out he was on orders to come to Korea. But he was having difficulties with his marriage and wanted to file for a "hardship" deferral, but was denied. He went AWOL for 6 months before turning himself in to be processed for discharge. Asked why he did it, he replied "hey....at least it got me out of going back to Korea...." He went to say that in the span of 21 years, he was sent to Korea over 15 times.

I don't to make this sound like a common thing, but alot of married couples that seperate after a spouse comes to Korea, tend to start divorce proceedings while they are here.

If the Koreans want the US out, by all means, let them go. They would be doing everyone a favor by letting go to a more friendlier country like the philippines or even Indonesia.
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zappadelta



Joined: 31 Aug 2004

PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2005 4:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Yeah, Canada has never done anything bad to Korea.


Yep, Canada has never done anything good or bad for any country. It's the Land of No Opinion.
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rapier



Joined: 16 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2005 4:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is the site of a soldier at Kunsan Air Force base- some revealing reading on the whole military standpoint, as well as information on anti-US protests etc:

http://www.kalaniosullivan.com/KunsanAB/8thFW/Howitwasb11dx0.html

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TheUrbanMyth



Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired

PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2005 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jinglejangle wrote:
[
I disagree that we owe the Koreans anything, considering that we did liberate their country twice. On the other hand, I think it was pretty poor form on our part to quit when we did instead of seizing the north and keeping it.

."


We almost did, and then the Chinese stepped in. Unless we had been willing to engage in a nuclear war with China at that time, what we have now was pretty much as good as anything we could have gotten. There was no "quitting" on our part.
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dreamscape



Joined: 05 Aug 2004

PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2005 9:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
On the other hand, I think it was pretty poor form on our part to quit when we did instead of seizing the north and keeping it.


I agree with TheUrbanMyth, it wasn't quitting that kept the West from seizing the North and keeping it, it was the reality of the geopolitical situation. With China involved the stakes became far too high for the potential gains. To fight China in a nation which borders China was simply not feasible. Despite best intentions, it is doubtful whether the U.S., U.K., Canada and the rest could have prevented a divided Korea. The present split was the best alternative to a wholly Totalitarian/Communist penninsula.

As for the focus of this thread, I doubt that the threat posed by the North is as dire as predicted. But it still exists. In a betting situation, the South alone vs. the North alone, my money is solidly on the South for all of the reasons many of you have explained in great detail.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2005 9:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote]Kim Tae-hyo, politics professor at Sungkyunkwan University, said yesterday, "Ultimately, I mean after reunification, it is partly right for Korea to ally with China. But currently, Korea has more to lose if it openly declares such a foreign policy."

Quote:
A top government official who asked for anonymity said yesterday, "The trading volume between South Korea and China has reached $100 billion year. There is no way for the Korean economy to survive if it joins the U.S.-Japan alliance that is arrayed against China."


These two quotes from today's JoongAng Ilbo illustrate some common Korean thinking:

a) Korea goes with whoever its biggest trading partner is--China.

b) Economics are more important than form of government. (The behavior of hakwon owners would fit pretty well with a Chinese style government. )

It's my belief that Roh has all along wanted the US to get ticked off enough to pull out all its troops. I think he would just as soon kick them out, but doesn't think he and his party could survive the political fallout. Much better to stir up trouble with the Japanese--declare 'diplomatic war' like he did a week or so ago, support NK with trade during the nuke talks so the North doesn't feel it has to make any concessions, and say SK is going to play the balancing act in NE Asia---which means he feels no tie to the alliance.

And yes, SK does have Aegis ships.
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redbird



Joined: 07 Mar 2005

PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2005 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="Ya-ta Boy"][quote]Kim Tae-hyo, politics professor at Sungkyunkwan University, said yesterday, "Ultimately, I mean after reunification, it is partly right for Korea to ally with China. But currently, Korea has more to lose if it openly declares such a foreign policy."

I betcha that in 20 years, some nationalist Americans will be blaming other Americans for "losing Korea" to China.
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