| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
Yu_Bum_suk
Joined: 25 Dec 2004
|
 Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:27 pm Post subject: |
 |
|
| thebum wrote: |
| Yu_Bum_suk wrote: |
I was having a chat on Sunday about this with someone far better in know than I am. He proffered a couple of chilling posibilities.
One is that the Nork regime starts to crumble and they launch a war as a last ditch attempt to have the cards fall some other way. He suspected that in this scenario the Norks would use what nukes they have on US military bases but would not be adverse to using heavy artillery on Seoul (a barage that could only last 15-20 minutes) including chemical / biological weapons.
Another is that they just declare war on the US, ignoring ambitions on Korea temporarily. They would send ultimada to Japan and SK demanding that they expel US forces or they nuke the bases, and then see where the chips fall.
In any event, it looks like a collapsing Nork regime could be quite some cause for alarm. |
Why would they declare war on someone they're already at war with? |
Fair enough - are they still at war with the UN, just the ROK, or ROK and US? At any rate, declaring an ultimatum, whatever, against the US would be one way to shake things up and gain face. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Yu_Bum_suk
Joined: 25 Dec 2004
|
| Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:28 pm Post subject: Re: ... |
|
|
| Nowhere Man wrote: |
Whether someone has a PHD or not seems a bit irrelevant.
How exactly would KJI hit an American base "by accident" with a nuclear weapon without killing thousands of Koreans?
If Saddam had hit anyone with a nuke he would have been vaporized.
I can't imagine him saying he "accidentally" hit an American military base.
"Hey guys, I accidentally nuked Yongsan". That would not result in diplomacy. The South Koreans might slap together the nuclear program they don't have and accidentally nuke Pyongyang, or the US might misfire any number of its huge nuclear arsenal randomly targeted on the North.
An accidental nuclear strike is a joke. Kind of like Dr. Strangelove, but my life hangs in the balance.
The North Korean people are not our enemy.
Feed them. Give them more. |
I think the person suggesting this scenario meant a large conventional weapon, not a nuke. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Derrek
Joined: 15 Jan 2003
|
| Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:41 pm Post subject: Re: Feed your enemy while he prepares nuclear bombs to kill |
|
|
| mindmetoo wrote: |
| Back during the cold war the Soviet Union got loads of food aid from America. |
In exchange for property rights? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
|
| Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:43 pm Post subject: Re: Feed your enemy while he prepares nuclear bombs to kill |
|
|
| Derrek wrote: |
| mindmetoo wrote: |
| Back during the cold war the Soviet Union got loads of food aid from America. |
In exchange for property rights? |
In exchange for the Soviet Union not starving and keeping them trying to steam roll over western europe... |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TheUrbanMyth
Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired
|
| Posted: Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:04 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| Quote: |
| Ph/D's are not immune from babbling nonsense, |
Hmmm...let's see. Who should I listen to in a discussion about North Korea? On the one hand we have a guy with a Ph.D in North Korean studies. OK. Maybe. On the other hand we have a guy with a BA in Interior Decorating from Podunk U.
Scratching my chin and pondering the weighty decision. This is a tough call. I'll get back to you. |
Actually it's just about common sense...which makes me wonder what I am doing talking to you. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
scarneck
Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Location: Seoul
|
| Posted: Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:11 am Post subject: Re: Strike a US Army Base |
|
|
| edit |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
The Bobster
Joined: 15 Jan 2003
|
| Posted: Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:18 am Post subject: |
|
|
| TheUrbanMyth wrote: |
| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| Quote: |
| Ph/D's are not immune from babbling nonsense, |
Hmmm...let's see. Who should I listen to in a discussion about North Korea? On the one hand we have a guy with a Ph.D in North Korean studies. OK. Maybe. On the other hand we have a guy with a BA in Interior Decorating from Podunk U.
Scratching my chin and pondering the weighty decision. This is a tough call. I'll get back to you. |
Actually it's just about common sense...which makes me wonder what I am doing talking to you. |
Common sense ain't so common as you think, and well, your off-the-cuff insult as you exit the discussion might indicate that you are not confident of your own supply of it ...
This your comment that started it off, by the way
The Urban Myth
| Quote: |
| Do you really think that George Bush would simply tuck his tail between his legs if something like that happened? Far more likely the public outcry from Americans would give him the perfect pretext to blast North Korea back to the stone age. |
Well, the "common sense" response is that as overexteneded as we are in Iraq, there is no other way to fight Pyongyang except with the military option of nuclear annihilation. Therefore, your scenario is likely correct ... except.
Others have mentioned the "buffer zone" nature that N Korea represents vis a vis China and the rest of the world. I can't imagine a scenario in which beijing would tolerate a nuclear exchange so close to its own real estate. Were it to tolerate such a thing, the mandarins in charge would not even be able to make their own people feel safe enough that they could continue to oppress their human rights.
I simply can't see any scenario of confronting NK by Amercian miltary force that does not involve declarations of war between Washington and Beijing. At the moment, the US would prevail against China, but likely at huge cost, and with the complete diminishment (or elimination) of our influence in this part of the world, and likely also quite a bit of damage to our homeland as well.
Again, entirely likely that TUM is correct about what kind of reaction Bush would come up with in such a case ... and all possible outcomes seem nothing else but scary to me.
But I always said Bush is a really scary guy ... |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
