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Manner of Speaking
Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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 Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:24 am Post subject: |
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| desultude wrote: |
When I saw an article on this this morning, I thought immediately about Katrina, and knew that the shrub has probably thrown one of his bush-whacking friends in charge of the Department of Health, and those in the U.S. would be screwed if it broke out any time soon.
On the other hand, I am not reassured being here, either. Switzerland, maybe, Korea, not in those circumstances.  (I tried to think of other countries, and I am sure there are a few that would do well (Singapore comes to mind) but remember how France responded to a heat wave that ended up killing scores of people?) |
Des, I don't know if you were in Daegu during the subway fire, but I remember when it happened. It broke out just down the street from where I worked. 150 people dead. The smell of the smoke permeating downtown for days. Then last winter there was the tsunami...tens of thousands dead.
I hope I haven't become fatalistic, but I think both events have changed my outlook on life a bit. Large-scale disasters happen, and even though you or the government can plan for them, something can happen tomorrow. An avian influenza pandemic could start tomorrow morning, and there isn't a hell of a lot I can do about it. I just have to face the fact that it could happen, and just live my life.
I'm not saying nothing can be done to stop or minimize the effects of disasters like that. I guess I've just come a long way from the average Canadian over-obsessing about my health care insurance.  |
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desultude
Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Location: Dangling my toes in the Persian Gulf
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| Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:23 am Post subject: |
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I arrived in Korea the first time on the day of the fire. I remember it well. The smell downtown was my first impression of it.
I agree on one hand that nature, in the form of the tsunami, the hurricane and the bird flu, are largely out of the control of humanity.
But- we are both responsible as societies to plan and deal with these things, and to prevent what we can.
I really think that global warming has affected the number and intensity of hurricanes. I don't know enough about avian flu to say whether we have any responsibility for it. I do agree that the way we treat animals is deplorable. The animal markets in China were responsible for SARS, at least that is the impression I had.
We have a responsibility to each other and our own humanity to be more mindful of our environment and to mitigate suffering when we can. |
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Bulsajo
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:35 am Post subject: |
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Indonesia goes on 'high alert':
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Indonesia Says 2 More People May Have Caught Bird Flu (Update3)
Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Two Indonesian children may have contracted bird flu, a week after a fourth person died from the disease, prompting the government to put the country on high alert for the disease.
Two girls, a three-year-old and a six-year-old, are being treated for avian influenza at Sulianto Saroso hospital in north Jakarta, Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari said in a telephone interview today. ``We've put the country on high alert for bird flu,'' she said.
Indonesia confirmed its first bird-flu deaths on July 20, after a man and his two daughters died from the virus. Avian influenza has infected more than 100 people in Asia and killed about half of them since 2004, three health agencies, including the World Health Organization, said last month.
As humans are unlikely to have immunity to a mutated strain of H5N1 that can pass between people, WHO is concerned it may trigger an influenza pandemic like the one that led to more than 40 million deaths worldwide in 1918.
``All countries can basically do much much more,'' to halt the spread of the disease, Georg Petersen, the World Health Organization's country representative in Indonesia said in a phone interview today. There needs to be more ``culling (of poultry), more information to the public and more detailed planning in every country for a pandemic of influenza.''
Live Together
All cases of human infection in Asia are believed by health officials to have come from animals.
``The problem with this country, as in many Asian countries is that a large portion of the chickens are raised by farmers in their backyard and even within the cities, people are raising chickens and this is very difficult to control,'' Petersen said.
Indonesians ``will have to be prepared to live together with bird flu, as it has with dengue,'' agriculture minister Anton Apriantono told reporters while visiting Pasar Cempaka Putih, a traditional market that sells live poultry in central Jakarta today. Dengue, which causes, fevers, rashes, headaches, muscle pain and sometimes death, is an annual occurrence in Indonesia.
The two children ``are suffering from unusual pneumonia, a symptom similar to what the other bird flu patients had,'' Supari said. ``Nothing is confirmed yet, tests are currently being done: blood samples are being taken to a laboratory in Hong Kong.''
Doctors and hospitals have been told to increase monitoring of patients with similar symptoms, Supari said.
An eight-year-old child may have contracted the disease, the fifth case in the country, six days after a 37-year-old woman died from bird flu, Supari said on Sept. 16. The child, who is not suffering from any symptom, was a nephew of the woman who died after suffering from pneumonia and flu-like respiratory problems for several days.
Rising Cases
Bird flu was found in poultry in 22 of Indonesia's 33 provinces since 2003 and further outbreaks are imminent, I. Nyoman Kandun, director general of disease control and environmental sanitation at the health ministry, said on Sept. 16.
The government shut Ragunan Zoo in Jakarta for 21 days starting today after 19 birds were found infected with the avian flu virus Apriantono said today, confirming an earlier report by the Jakarta Post newspaper. The government will test some of the zoo's 500 employees who work near animal cages, he said.
Zoo Probe
The government is also investigating other zoos for the next one month for any infected birds, Apriantono said. The government may have to remove chicken farms from the capital as a safety precaution, Apriantono said.
A laboratory in Hong Kong confirmed the dead woman tested positive for the H5N1 virus, a deadly strain of the avian influenza virus, the health ministry said last week. The government is also investigating how the woman who died was infected, Kandun said last week.
Blood samples taken from a number of people who may have had contact with the woman were also sent to Hong Kong for tests.
More than 140 million chickens have been slaughtered in the region because of concern that H5N1 may mutate into a form easily transmissible between humans.
More than 10 million poultry have died of avian influenza in Indonesia since August 2003, Apriantono said. As many as 9.54 million poultry were killed by bird flu in the country since the first bird flu outbreak in 2003, according to the directorate general of animal husbandry at the Agriculture Ministry of Indonesia. About 200 poultry died from bird flu in September, while there was no reported case in August, he said.
The government, struggling to contain the soaring budget deficit caused by rising oil prices, doesn't have money for mass culling of poultry, Apriantono said.
No Money to Kill
The government has 24 billion rupiah ($2.4 million) on hand to halt bird flu for the rest of the year while the cost could jump well above 800 billion rupiah to kill all chickens within three kilometers of infected farms in the Tangerang area in Banten province, where the first human fatalities were found, he said.
The government has instead encouraged farmers and chicken sellers to keep the surroundings clean and has banned chickens from being sold outside infected areas unless they have a certificate that guarantees the poultry were healthy, he said.
Wild water fowl from Siberia, where the H5N1 virus was detected in July, will probably carry bird flu to Europe, the Middle East, South Asia and Africa, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Aug. 31.
Migratory birds from Siberia may take it to the Caspian Sea, the Black Sea and the Balkans, from where it could spread through central and southern Europe, FAO said then.
Of the 15 avian influenza viruses, the H5N1 mutates rapidly and can acquire genes from viruses infecting other animal species, according to the World Health Organization's Web site. Birds that survive infection excrete virus for at least 10 days, orally and in feces, spreading the virus at live poultry markets. Migratory birds also can spread the virus.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Soraya Permatasari in Jakarta at [email protected]
Last Updated: September 19, 2005 06:48 EDT |
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rapier
Joined: 16 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:10 am Post subject: |
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| Wild water fowl from Siberia, where the H5N1 virus was detected in July, will probably carry bird flu to Europe |
This is once again typical speculative BS. The Bird flu, once again, is associated with captive domestic birds, as your own article reaffirms.
If you're referring to Novosibirsk, see http://www.oie.int/downld/AVIAN%20INFLUENZA/Russia%20HPAI.pdf
This limited information states that the strain found in a wild duck( only one of hundreds tested0 was clearly different to the lethal strain found in the domestic birds.
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| Migratory birds from Siberia may take it to the Caspian Sea, the Black Sea and the Balkans, from where it could spread through central and southern Europe, FAO said then. |
More supposition and hearsay by lazy scientists. Where is the proof? There isn't any!!There is still no evidence that wild migratory birds are capable of carrying the virus long distances,and in addition there is no evidence that wild birds are capable of spreading it to domestic poultry, let alone people. Craig Pringle, viral diseases moderator for ProMed Mail cautions that although the virus has been found in migratory birds (Infected by association with domestic birds), it is a leap to assume they can spread it to domestic poultry. He told New Scientist that it is likely the virus could have reached Russia and Kazakhstan through general trade routes: New Scientist online article, August 11, 2005, at: [url]newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7834[/url]
| Quote: |
| Of the 15 avian influenza viruses, the H5N1 mutates rapidly and can acquire genes from viruses infecting other animal species, according to the World Health Organization's Web site. Birds that survive infection excrete virus for at least 10 days, orally and in feces, spreading the virus at live poultry markets. |
Absolutely. It is a problem of domestic stock housed, transported in close proximity, in unsanitary conditions..
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| Migratory birds also can spread the virus. |
Really? But there is no proof. This is speculative BS. As I have said before: Any wild birds (relatively few cases) so far found with the virus were found to have been infected from domestic birds, and they have quickly died without spreading it. Wild birds have been shown to be more susceptible to death from the virus, and dead ducks don't fly.
Wild birds, for whatever reason (energetics, lack of resistance?) appear to be highly susceptible to HIAP when exposed: many birds die, and quickly.
In Qinghai, up to 200 birds a day died at the peak of the outbreak between May 18th and 5th June, resulting in a total of ca 6 000 fatalities (AVI Bulletin, 032, July 2005). This revealed clearly that poultry flu can be fatal to wild migrant birds, even to those species groups (such as Anseriformes) suspected by some as being the most likely vectors for the disease (and thus considered most likely to have developed some resistance to it). Colonial-nesting species such as Bar-headed Goose and Great Black-headed or Pallas��s Gull were the most affected, followed by Great Cormorant (also a colonial nester) and Ruddy Shelduck (AVI Bulletin 032).
Secondly, captive birds have been proven to have more resistance, contracting and carrying the disease without symptoms.
It is caused and perpetuated by the unnatural and inhuman practise of keeping birds in overcrowded conditions. Evidence points clearly to this. Once again, no proof of wild birds carrying or spreading it over distance. read my former posts.
99% of infections have been of domestic birds, the rest of are of wild birds infected by domestic birds- that quickly died. |
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Bulsajo
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:40 pm Post subject: |
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| desultude wrote: |
I agree on one hand that nature, in the form of the tsunami, the hurricane and the bird flu, are largely out of the control of humanity.
But- we are both responsible as societies to plan and deal with these things, and to prevent what we can.
We have a responsibility to each other and our own humanity to be more mindful of our environment and to mitigate suffering when we can. |
This is going to sound contradictory to the impression some of you may have of my philosophy on things, but...
...evolution has done a good job so far, don't you think? Despite the many extinction events, life keeps keepin' on. I sometimes wonder if we don't do too much to thwart natural selection. Think in terms of time travel movie and stories, i.e., the Butterfly Effect. What are the long-term consequences of taking over the game and remaking the rules?
Mind you, it's not my point of view, it's a thought that rattles round my brain from time to time. |
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Manner of Speaking
Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:26 pm Post subject: |
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| desultude wrote: |
| I arrived in Korea the first time on the day of the fire. I remember it well. The smell downtown was my first impression of it. |
Then you can relate. Pretty horrible.
| desultude wrote: |
I agree on one hand that nature, in the form of the tsunami, the hurricane and the bird flu, are largely out of the control of humanity.
But- we are both responsible as societies to plan and deal with these things, and to prevent what we can. |
Oh, absolutely. And faulty planning, deliberately negligent planning, for events as these is akin to murder.
I guess what I was talking about was how these events - huge disasters - can affect your outlook on life, in particular in cases where they could not have been prevented or foreseen. In the Daegu subway fire case, it could have been foreseen...anybody riding those subway cars on a regular basis, seeing those vinyl seats and the lack of instructions for opening the cars in an emergency, could see they were firetraps. Our school worked on a project with the Subway Commission a few years ago to translate a safety manual from Korean to English. This was for foreigners riding the subway during the Universiade. They translated the manual fine, put posters in all the subway stations explaining the history of each station in English...but I never saw much in the way of safety information on the subway cars. 
Anyway...what I meant was, when confronted with a disaster of that scale, like the tsunami...you come face to face with the reality that catastropic events like that can/do really happen, and that sometimes nothing but random chance selects one person to die, and another person to live. The scale of that arbitrariness takes work to deal with, if you're not the religious type, like me.
| desultude wrote: |
I really think that global warming has affected the number and intensity of hurricanes. I don't know enough about avian flu to say whether we have any responsibility for it. I do agree that the way we treat animals is deplorable. The animal markets in China were responsible for SARS, at least that is the impression I had.
We have a responsibility to each other and our own humanity to be more mindful of our environment and to mitigate suffering when we can. |
One of the interesting similarities between the tsunami and Avian Flu is that both hazards are arguments in favor of more development, not less. In less developed countries around the Indian Ocean, there was far greater loss of life in poor regions where people are more reliant on subsistence lifestyles, and governments have fewer resources to either plan ahead for disaster management, or to mitigate the effects afterwards. Contrast that to Phuket where I just got back from, an area that was more developed. There were fewer lives lost, and the economy and society was able to get back on its feet much more quickly.
Similarly, South Korea seems to have been able to deal with it's Avian Flu outbreaks fairly well, because it's a developed country with a lot of government and university support for its agricultural sector. The money is there for the Department of Agriculture to respond quickly when flu is reported, and farm operations are generally more hygenic.
In contrast, China is a big, underdeveloped country with (probably) millions of farms with poultry operations. Poor people are going to raise chickens and ducks, hygenically or not, because they need the food and need the money. The department(s) of agriculture in China are probably relatively less able (in comparison to Korea or the US or Canada) to respond to outbreaks of avian flu spread by migratory birds, simply because as a poor country they have fewer resources to cope with any outbreak, and less money to spend on rural development and agricultural technical training.
The tsunami and Avian Flu are arguments against poverty, not against development...at least this is an area where liberals/the left and people concerned with the environment can find common ground.
Last edited by Manner of Speaking on Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:11 am; edited 1 time in total |
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rapier
Joined: 16 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:09 am Post subject: |
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| Manner of Speaking wrote: |
| respond to outbreaks of avian flu spread by migratory birds. |
Nice try to slip that in- but course, once again, you realise that this is a totally unproven assumption that has gained popular imagination in the pres by way of protecting the billion dollar poultry industry whilst scapegoating wild birds. Not one shred of evidence.
All evidence points instead to the disease following vehicular poultry transport routes.
And all cases of wild birds contracting it have been because they were infected by domestic birds.
And wild birds have died to a faster and higher rate than domestic birds, none spreading the disease further than their immediate area.
*How do you imagine a bird can migrate 3000 miles when infected with disease?
*Do you see the correlation between hundreds of crowded chickens in cramped cages stacked on top of eachother, and the spread of disease?
*Do you see how extremely less likely it is to spread in widely dispersed wild birds separated by miles of geography?
*Do you see the logic that wild bird migration routes in no way correspond with outbreaks of the disease- but have been proven to be associated with domestic poultry transport routes?
This is not an attack on you or anybody M.O.S: just a statement of fact. good night:) |
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Bulsajo
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 11:30 pm Post subject: |
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| rapier wrote: |
| *How do you imagine a bird can migrate 3000 miles when infected with disease? |
I assume you are familiar with the word carrier? |
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rapier
Joined: 16 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 11:44 pm Post subject: |
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| EFLtrainer wrote: |
| rapier wrote: |
| *How do you imagine a bird can migrate 3000 miles when infected with disease? |
I assume you are familiar with the word carrier? |
Once again, you haven't been following my evidence.
Domestic poultry has been proved to contain a significant % of birds that do not succomb to the virus, but carry it without symptoms. A bit like HIV if you will. In this way, a reservoir of bird flu has remained in the poultry stock undetected, only to reappear every so often.
On the other hand, wild birds have never been proven to carry the virus beyond their immediate area of infection. here is no evidence. All indications show wild birds to be more susceptible, dying quickly in the area of infection without moving any distance.
I've almost given up posting on these forums. Proof and evidence counts for nothing in debates here, and people simply stick by their original ideas no matter what.
Last edited by rapier on Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:52 am; edited 1 time in total |
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:51 am Post subject: |
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| rapier wrote: |
| EFLtrainer wrote: |
| rapier wrote: |
| *How do you imagine a bird can migrate 3000 miles when infected with disease? |
I assume you are familiar with the word carrier? |
Once again, you haven't been following my evidence.
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I answered your question exactly. Nothing in your response says it is impossible. No need nor reason to be dismissive and rude.
I think it is wisest to assume anything that can go wrong, will. Perparation for the worst is wise. |
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rapier
Joined: 16 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:23 am Post subject: |
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Efl Trainer: I wasn't being rude, apologies: I think I was just reacting to the "black is indeed white" mentality that seems to be prevalent on this forum.
Here are the facts of bird flu, and my position on what should be done.
"Poultry/Bird/Avian" Flu (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Type A H5N1) is a disease primarily of poultry, and a product of the unhygienic and inhumane conditions found in the poultry industry.
There is as yet no evidence that wild birds are spreading Poultry Flu significantly beyond the immediate area of their infection; there is abundant evidence that Poultry Flu is spread over significant distance through the transport of poultry (chicken, domesticated duck, turkey), and through other human activities.
Up to the present, the outbreaks of Poultry Flu do not match the movements of migrant birds, either in timing or in distribution (contrary to the claims of some prominent non-specialists); no wild bird species can be identified that link sites and dates of outbreaks.
However, some wild birds can contract Poultry Flu, and it can kill them: they can be victims of it.
Even if (highly unlikely due to their nature)wild birds are eventually proven as vectors in one or more outbreaks of Poultry Flu, it is clear that the eradication of flocks of migrant birds, while difficult to achieve, and in many cases illegal, would not solve the problem. This is because the virus is already widespread among poultry flocks.
The most efficient means to restrict the spread of this virus is to impose and enforce much stricter controls on the poultry (and caged bird) industry. These controls pertain to both the conditions in which chickens and ducks etc are reared and kept; and in the way in which they are transported.
In addition, very much greater effort needs to be made to keep Poultry Flu from contaminating areas used by wild birds and people.
It is clear that Poultry Flu is a complex issue. For all aspects to be understood, and for the further spread of the disease to be prevented, there needs to be a much greater pooling of information from specialists in a number of fields - including not only medicine but also ornithology, ecology, biosecurity and the poultry industry. |
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:46 am Post subject: |
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| rapier wrote: |
Even if (highly unlikely due to their nature)wild birds are eventually proven as vectors in one or more outbreaks of Poultry Flu, it is clear that the eradication of flocks of migrant birds, while difficult to achieve, and in many cases illegal, would not solve the problem. This is because the virus is already widespread among poultry flocks.
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Let's just hope it doesn't mutate among the wild, if it's out there, since we're coming into fall and the migratory season. |
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rapier
Joined: 16 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:06 am Post subject: |
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| EFLtrainer wrote: |
Let's just hope it doesn't mutate among the wild, if it's out there, since we're coming into fall and the migratory season. |
-Why the constant focus on wild birds when i've already proved that the problem is in the poultry industry?Its about 99.9% more likely to mutate in chickens and turkeys, if it does at all.
You wouldn't be trolling me by any chance?  |
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