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Rigging the vote in Iraq?

 
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On the other hand



Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue

PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:33 am    Post subject: Rigging the vote in Iraq? Reply with quote

Quote:
Sunni Arabs have reacted angrily to a decision by Iraq's Shia-dominated parliament making it harder to reject the new constitution in 12 days' time.
The two-thirds majority needed in three provinces to defeat the constitution will now be counted from all registered - as opposed to actual - voters.

Many registered voters may not show up because of violence, it is argued.



So, lemme see if I got this straight:

Suppose there are 99 registered voters in a province, and 60 show up to vote. Of that 60, 50 reject the constitution, well over 2/3rds. However, those results will not count because 66 votes are actually needed to defeat, in accordance with the "total number of registered voters" criterion.

And of course, the regions most likely to have low voter turnout(due to the ongoing civil war) are also the ones most likely to vote against the constitution. Can you say stacking the deck, boys and girls?

I guess it's a good thing that, as Joo is always reminding us, this war is all about scaring the bejeezus out of Saudi Arabia, not about bringing democracy to Iraq. Because this sure as hell doesn't sound like any democracy I've ever heard of.

But maybe I'm just not up on my comparative politics. Are there any democratic countries that tally votes in this manner?
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On the other hand



Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue

PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4306094.stm
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 10:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, this is a little dodgy of the Kurds and the Shi'a. It may blow up in their faces...literally...

NYTimes Link

I'm posting it in full because it is the NYTimes and it will be difficult to get later.

Quote:
Election Change Seems to Ensure Iraqis' Charter

By ROBERT F. WORTH
Published: October 4, 2005
BAGHDAD, Iraq, Oct. 3 - Iraq's Shiite and Kurdish leaders quietly adopted new rules over the weekend that will make it virtually impossible for the constitution to fail in the coming national referendum.

The move prompted Sunni Arabs and a range of independent political figures to complain that the vote was being fixed.

Some Sunni leaders who have been organizing a campaign to vote down the proposed constitution said they might now boycott the referendum on Oct. 15. Other political leaders also reacted angrily, saying the change would seriously damage the vote's credibility.

Under the new rules, the constitution will fail only if two-thirds of all registered voters - rather than two-thirds of all those actually casting ballots - reject it in at least three of the 18 provinces.

The change, adopted during an unannounced vote in Parliament on Sunday afternoon, effectively raises the bar for those who oppose the constitution. Given that fewer than 60 percent of registered Iraqis voted in the January elections, the chances that two-thirds will both show up at the polls and vote against the document in three provinces would appear to be close to nil.

"This is a mockery of democracy, a mockery of law," said Adnan al-Janabi, a secular Sunni representative and a member of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's party. "Many Sunnis have been telling me they didn't believe in this democratic process, and now I believe they are vindicated."

The rule change could prove a serious embarrassment to American officials in Iraq, who have spent recent weeks struggling to persuade Sunni Arabs to vote for the constitution and even trying to broker last-minute changes that would make it more palatable to them.

There was some confusion on Monday about the origin of the change. One member of Iraq's electoral commission said the commission had already made a similar ruling last month, while another member denied that. But Ali Dabagh, a moderate Shiite member of Parliament, said there had been no public ruling until Sunday's vote.

Mr. Dabagh also said the United Nations had expressed dissatisfaction on Monday with the rule change, and that the National Assembly would meet Tuesday to reconsider it.

There were indications from knowledgeable diplomats that the United States, too, was unhappy with the development and hoped it would be modified.

Other Shiite members of the assembly defended their action. They said that if only people who came to the polls were counted in the referendum, insurgent attacks could frighten away so many voters that the constitution could be rejected on the basis of a small, unrepresentative sample of voters.

"You should not violate the rights of the majority," Maryam Reyes, a member of the Shiite alliance that controls a majority of seats in the assembly, said in support of the measure.

Ms. Reyes said the assembly members had not changed election law, but only clarified the meaning of the word "voters" in the relevant passage. The legal passage in question states: "The general referendum will be successful and the draft constitution ratified if a majority of voters in Iraq approve and if two-thirds of voters in three or more governorates do not reject it."

In their vote on Sunday, the Shiite and Kurdish members interpreted the law as follows: the constitution will pass if a majority of ballots are cast for it; it will fail if two-thirds of registered voters in three or more provinces vote against it. In other words, the lawmakers designated two different meanings for the word "voters" in one passage. "I think it's a double standard, and it's unfair," said Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish assembly member who, like many other lawmakers, said he had not been present during the vote and only learned of it afterward. "When it's in your favor, you say 'voters.' When it's not in your favor you say 'eligible voters.' "

In effect, the new interpretation makes not voting a show of support for the constitution and runs against the apparent intent of the law. The National Assembly is empowered to change the transitional law - which was written under the American occupation in 2003 - but only with the approval of two-thirds of its members and of the Presidency Council. Because they regard their action as a mere clarification, the lawmakers did not seek that kind of approval.

There were also new signs of tension between the Shiite and Kurdish alliances that dominate Iraq's transitional government. Kurdish leaders threatened to withdraw from the alliance last month, and on Sunday a high-ranking Kurdish official called for the resignation of the Shiite prime minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari. Leaders of the two blocs met Monday night to iron out differences on a range of issues, including Kurdish demands for faster Kurdish resettlement in Kirkuk, the contested northern city.

If the Kurds were to follow through on their threat to withdraw, it would be a serious blow to Iraq's government. The Shiites have a narrow majority in the assembly, but if a vote of confidence were called and even a few Shiites were to vote against Mr. Jaafari, the government would collapse, throwing Iraq's public affairs into greater disarray.

Continuing insurgent violence across Iraq on Monday left at least a dozen people dead.

In western Baghdad, a roadside bomb exploded near a convoy carrying Ibrahim Bahr, the oil minister, apparently in an assassination attempt. Three of the minister's guards were killed and two were injured but Mr. Bahr was unhurt, Interior Ministry officials said.

In Doura, a lawless neighborhood in southern Baghdad, a car bomb exploded, killing two and injuring three. Elsewhere in the capital, three bodies were found Tuesday morning, with their hands bound and bullets in their heads, the officials said.

In Kirkuk, gunmen opened fire on a police patrol with a belt-fed machine gun, killing two officers and wounding three, police officials said. Two more police officers were killed just south of the city when a roadside bomb exploded on their convoy.

South of Baghdad in Hilla, a bomb detonated near a popular restaurant, killing one bystander and injuring three, witnesses said.

The nonprofit Human Rights Watch issued a report Monday stating that insurgents in Iraq have committed war crimes by making civilians the targets of mass killings, and that some of their abuses may constitute crimes against humanity.
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee



Joined: 25 May 2003

PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 2:26 pm    Post subject: Re: Rigging the vote in Iraq? Reply with quote

On the other hand wrote:
Quote:
Sunni Arabs have reacted angrily to a decision by Iraq's Shia-dominated parliament making it harder to reject the new constitution in 12 days' time.
The two-thirds majority needed in three provinces to defeat the constitution will now be counted from all registered - as opposed to actual - voters.

Many registered voters may not show up because of violence, it is argued.



So, lemme see if I got this straight:

Suppose there are 99 registered voters in a province, and 60 show up to vote. Of that 60, 50 reject the constitution, well over 2/3rds. However, those results will not count because 66 votes are actually needed to defeat, in accordance with the "total number of registered voters" criterion.

And of course, the regions most likely to have low voter turnout(due to the ongoing civil war) are also the ones most likely to vote against the constitution. Can you say stacking the deck, boys and girls?

I guess it's a good thing that, as Joo is always reminding us, this war is all about scaring the bejeezus out of Saudi Arabia, not about bringing democracy to Iraq. Because this sure as hell doesn't sound like any democracy I've ever heard of.

But maybe I'm just not up on my comparative politics. Are there any democratic countries that tally votes in this manner?


give us a list of states in the mideast that are more democratic than Iraq.


Fact is that 70-80% of all Iraqi support the consitution.
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On the other hand



Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue

PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
give us a list of states in the mideast that are more democratic than Iraq.


Give me a list of states in the middle east that have recently been invaded and occupied with the stated goal of making them into democracies.
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Bulsajo



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 3:28 pm    Post subject: Re: Rigging the vote in Iraq? Reply with quote

Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote:

give us a list of states in the mideast that are more democratic than Iraq.


Fact is that 70-80% of all Iraqi support the consitution.

2 wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for lunch...
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee



Joined: 25 May 2003

PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 4:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the other hand wrote:
Quote:
give us a list of states in the mideast that are more democratic than Iraq.


Give me a list of states in the middle east that have recently been invaded and occupied with the stated goal of making them into democracies.


The fact is that Iraqs governent is one of the most democratic governments in the mideast .

The fact is that 70% -80% of the Iraqi population supports the consitution.

Huge improvement on the old regime.

By the way I would like to point out that these changes were not done by the US. In fact the US opposes the changes

Quote:
On the political front, U.S. and U.N. officials were trying to avert a Sunni Arab boycott of the referendum, which would deeply undermine the validity of a constitution Washington hopes will unite Iraq's factions and weaken the insurgency.

Officials met Tuesday with Shiite and Kurdish leaders to persuade them to reverse the Shiite-led government's last-minute change to voting rules ahead of the Oct. 15 vote. Sunday's change makes it almost impossible for minority Sunnis to reject the constitution — all guaranteeing its passage.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051005/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq

It was the Shias and the Kurds that made the changes - not the US.

The reason the Shias and the Kurds could make the changes well it is cause they out vote the Sunnis 4:1.

Majorty rule. Wouldn't it be nice if other mideast regimes operated that way
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EFLtrainer



Joined: 04 May 2005

PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:54 pm    Post subject: Re: Rigging the vote in Iraq? Reply with quote

Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote:
On the other hand wrote:
Quote:
Sunni Arabs have reacted angrily to a decision by Iraq's Shia-dominated parliament making it harder to reject the new constitution in 12 days' time.
The two-thirds majority needed in three provinces to defeat the constitution will now be counted from all registered - as opposed to actual - voters.

Many registered voters may not show up because of violence, it is argued.



So, lemme see if I got this straight:

Suppose there are 99 registered voters in a province, and 60 show up to vote. Of that 60, 50 reject the constitution, well over 2/3rds. However, those results will not count because 66 votes are actually needed to defeat, in accordance with the "total number of registered voters" criterion.

And of course, the regions most likely to have low voter turnout(due to the ongoing civil war) are also the ones most likely to vote against the constitution. Can you say stacking the deck, boys and girls?

I guess it's a good thing that, as Joo is always reminding us, this war is all about scaring the bejeezus out of Saudi Arabia, not about bringing democracy to Iraq. Because this sure as hell doesn't sound like any democracy I've ever heard of.

But maybe I'm just not up on my comparative politics. Are there any democratic countries that tally votes in this manner?


give us a list of states in the mideast that are more democratic than Iraq.


Fact is that 70-80% of all Iraqi support the consitution.


Congrats, once again, Joo, for absolutely ignoring the ethical and moral implications.
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee



Joined: 25 May 2003

PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 11:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

EFLT
Quote:
Congrats, once again, Joo, for absolutely ignoring the ethical and moral implications.


What ought the US do EFLT?



Huge improvement on the old regime.

By the way I would like to point out that these changes were not done by the US. In fact the US opposes the changes

Quote:
On the political front, U.S. and U.N. officials were trying to avert a Sunni Arab boycott of the referendum, which would deeply undermine the validity of a constitution Washington hopes will unite Iraq's factions and weaken the insurgency.

Officials met Tuesday with Shiite and Kurdish leaders to persuade them to reverse the Shiite-led government's last-minute change to voting rules ahead of the Oct. 15 vote. Sunday's change makes it almost impossible for minority Sunnis to reject the constitution — all guaranteeing its passage.



http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051005/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq

It was the Shias and the Kurds that made the changes - not the US.

The reason the Shias and the Kurds could make the changes well it is cause they out vote the Sunnis 4:1.

Majorty rule. Wouldn't it be nice if other mideast regimes operated that way?
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Nowhere Man



Joined: 08 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:10 am    Post subject: ... Reply with quote

Bear in mind, this is not just an election but a vote on the Constitution, which will ultimately affect all of the subsequent elections.

The rules were set. The fact that the rules were "quietly changed" speaks to the (il)legitimacy of such a change. Especially when a boycott has long been feared with the rules as they were. Isn't this asking for a boycott.

Majority rule becomes a joke when you change the rules to "fix" the fact that too many people may be too intimidated to vote.

Of course, these things happen when the crucial vote is taking place in the midst of a war.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the other hand wrote:
Quote:
give us a list of states in the mideast that are more democratic than Iraq.


Give me a list of states in the middle east that have recently been invaded and occupied with the stated goal of making them into democracies.


Lebanon? Oh, wait, there was only an implied threat to invade. I wonder why it wasn't too subtle and why it was taken seriously?

Quote:
Of course, these things happen when the crucial vote is taking place in the midst of a war.


They also happen when you deliver autonomy to a people before they are ready for democracy. So I guess I may agree with OTOH, forcing democracy on a people is rather...I'll let someone else find the word...
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igotthisguitar



Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)

PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, how about that ...

180 degrees. Quite the rapid turn about.

Iraq Reverses Much-Derided Election Change
By QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA, Associated Press Writer

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Iraq's National Assembly voted on Wednesday to reverse last-minute changes it had made to rules for next week's referendum on a new constitution following criticism by the United Nations and a boycott threat by the Sunni minority.

After a brief debate and with only about half of its 275 members present, the assembly voted 119-28 to restore the original voting rules for the Oct. 15 referendum.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051005/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_constitution
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On the other hand



Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue

PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 7:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
After a brief debate and with only about half of its 275 members present, the assembly voted 119-28 to restore the original voting rules for the Oct. 15 referendum.


Well, I'm certainly glad to hear that.

No surprise, I guess. I'm kinda amazed they ever thought they could get away with that in the first place.

Quote:
Quote:
Of course, these things happen when the crucial vote is taking place in the midst of a war.


They also happen when you deliver autonomy to a people before they are ready for democracy. So I guess I may agree with OTOH, forcing democracy on a people is rather...I'll let someone else find the word...


I'm not sure if it's a question of people being ready or not ready for democracy(though certainly democracy seems to work best when certain socioeconomic conditions have already been met). Rather, I think the point is that foreign invasion, by its very nature, tends to create a set of circumstances(insurgency, civil war, collapse of infrastructure etc) that are most decidedly contra-indicated for the establishment of a healthy democracy.
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igotthisguitar



Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)

PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hmmmmmm ... ok ... let's see. What comes up when we GOOGLE: Iraq, voting and anomolies?

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=iraq+voting+anomalies&spell=1

While interesting, can anyone honestly say they're that surprised?

Some interesting courtroom video testimony here on US vote rigging.
http://www.iwilltryit.com/fixed1.htm

Maybe this is what Iraq needs.
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