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Zawahiri letter a fake?

 
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On the other hand



Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue

PostPosted: Fri Oct 14, 2005 7:33 am    Post subject: Zawahiri letter a fake? Reply with quote

This is from Juan Cole's blog. Personally, I'm not well-versed enough in Islam(now, THERE'S an understatement!) to comment on the matter either way. Just posting it for your reading pleasure.

The Arabic text of the recently released letter alleged to be by Zawahiri (al-Qaeda's number two man) to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq raises questions for me as to its authenticity.

The very first element of the letter is the blessing on the Prophet. It says:

al-salah wa al-salam `ala rasuli'llahi wa a-lihi wa suhubihi . . .

(peace and blessings be upon the Messenger of God and his family and his companions . . .)

the phrase "salla Allahu `alayhi wa alihi wa sallam" (the blessings and peace of God be upon him and his family) is a Shiite form of the salutation, because of the emphasis of the Shiites on the House or descendants of the Prophet. Because of the cultural influence of Shiism in South Asia, one does find that form of the salutation in Pakistan and India among Sunni Muslims.

But before I went to Pakistan I had never, ever heard a Sunni Muslim add "wa alihi" (and his family) to the salutation. I associated it strongly with Iran and Shiism, and was taken aback to hear Sunnis say it on Pakistani television. Certainly, I never heard that form of it all the time I lived in Egypt.

I just put "salla Allahu `alayhi wa alihi wa sallam" into google in English transliteration and *all* the sites that came up on the first page were either Shiite or Pakistani Sunni (Chishti, Barelvi, etc.) I tried adding Misr (Egypt) to the phrase and got a Shiite attack on the medieval Sunni hardline thinker, Ibn Taymiya. I tried adding Qaida and got a Shiite attack on Sunni extremism.

I do not believe that an Egyptian like al-Zawahiri would use this phraseology at all. But he certainly would not use it to open a letter to a Salafi. Sunni hardliners deeply object to what they see as Shiite idolatry of the imams or descendants of the Prophet Muhammad, for whom they made shrines such as Ali's at Najaf and Husayn's at Karbala. In fact, hard line Wahhabis from Saudi Arabia attacked and sacked Karbala in 1803.

Adding to the salutation "the peace and blessings of God be upon him [Muhammad]" the phrase "and his family" would be an insult to Zarqawi and to the hardline Sunnis in Iraq.

Later he refers to Husain, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, as al-Imam al-sibt, "the Imam, the grandson". I do not believe that a hard line Sunni such as Zawahiri would call Husain an Imam. That is Shiite terminology.

The letter then says how much Zawahiri misses meeting with Zarqawi. Zarqawi was not part of al-Qaeda when he was in Afghanistan. He had a rivalry with it. And when he went back to Jordan he did not allow the Jordanian and German chapters of his Tawhid wa Jihad group to send money to Bin Laden. If Zawahiri was going to bring up old times, he would have had to find a way to get past this troubled history, not just pretend that the two used to pal around.

My gut tells me that the letter is a forgery. Most likely it is a black psy-ops operation of the US. But it could also come from Iran, since the mistakes are those a Shiite might make when pretending to be a Sunni. Or it could come from an Iraqi Shiite group attempting to manipulate the United States. Hmmm.
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Summer Wine



Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Location: Next to a River

PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have had a few twinges about this message as well, mainly it seemed a little too smooth. Too much at the right time at the right place feel. I can't explain, I am sorry. It might be true, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if it turned out otherwise.
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On the other hand



Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue

PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

An update from Cole's blog:

Quote:
Update A lot of Muslim and Arabist readers have written to say that my argument below (now at bottom in italics) is incorrect and that I have confused the ritual of saying blessings on the Prophet when Muhammad's name is mentioned (during which Sunnis typically do not mention the family of the Prophet) and the ritual salutation at the beginning of a letter, in which the mention of the family and companions of the Prophet by Sunnis is not unheard of.

On the other hand, a number of knowledgeable observers have agreed that it is strange for al-Zawahiri and his circle to call the Prophet's grandson, Husayn, an "Imam." There are other odd things about the letter that I will discuss on Saturday.

Later he refers to Husain, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, as al-Imam al-sibt, "the Imam, the grandson". I do not believe that a hard line Sunni such as Zawahiri would call Husain an Imam. That is Shiite terminology.


http://www.juancole.com/
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jinglejangle



Joined: 19 Feb 2005
Location: Far far far away.

PostPosted: Sun Oct 16, 2005 1:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
On the other hand, a number of knowledgeable observers have agreed that it is strange for al-Zawahiri and his circle to call the Prophet's grandson, Husayn, an "Imam." There are other odd things about the letter that I will discuss on Saturday.

Later he refers to Husain, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, as al-Imam al-sibt, "the Imam, the grandson". I do not believe that a hard line Sunni such as Zawahiri would call Husain an Imam. That is Shiite terminology.


Earlier tonight I was getting a lecture of the origins of the Shia, as pertains to this grandson Hussein. The lecturer also refered to "Imam" as a Shiite word, although Hussein and his untimely demise apparently had profound effects on all of Muslim society at the time. (Including, eventually, the Sunni/Shia split if I understand correctly.)

I'm no expert on the subject by a long stretch, but that point does raise my eyebrows.

I also read that Al Qaeda has issued a denouncement of the letter on Al Jaziera, which seems fairly uncharacteristic of them, although they certainly seem to have reason, given the content of the letter. I would deny it too, true or not, were I in their shoes.

As for the greeting at the beginning of the letter, I find that unconvincing. Zawahiri has been thought to be in the Afgan/Pakistan border regions for some time, which would make his adoption of some of their speech plausible in my mind, although again, I am no expert on their culture.

One possible explanation for the "Imam" reference does come to my mind. Zawahiri is apparently a proponent of all devout Muslims sticking together. I have not yet discovered whether or not he considers the Shia to be included as Islamic, but if my recollection serves me, he criticised Zarqawi in this communique for his attacks on Shiite civilians. It could be that this reference to the "Imam Hussein" is a subtle message to Zarqawi of soliderity. Or maybe I'm just too tired to think straight. Sorry, I've had a rather physically exausting 12 hours of work today.

I probably shouldn't try and reason things out.

Either way, OTOH, this was a very interesting post. Thanks.
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igotthisguitar



Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)

PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What? A real fake piece of "evidence" in the war on terror? Shocked

Impossible. Don't even go there Wink
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee



Joined: 25 May 2003

PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2005 4:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
washingtonpost.com
Window Into Al Qaeda

By David Ignatius
Sunday, October 16, 2005; B07



Rarely in wartime is it possible to read over the shoulder of the enemy and discover his most intimate thoughts about the battle. But the United States is claiming just such an intelligence coup with the capture of a letter from Ayman Zawahiri, the cerebral chief strategist of al Qaeda, to his hotheaded field commander in Iraq, Abu Musab Zarqawi.

The July 9 Zawahiri letter was released Tuesday by the office of John Negroponte, the new director of national intelligence. If authentic, the letter takes us inside the tent of al Qaeda's battered but clear-eyed leadership as it plans the next stage of its global jihad.

Al Qaeda in Iraq claims that the letter is a fake, but I would say that, too, if someone had intercepted my battle plans. More troubling is a critique by Juan Cole, one of the leading American experts on Shiite Islam. After carefully reviewing the Arabic text, he argued on his Web site Friday that some of the usage sounds like that of a Shiite or perhaps a Pakistani but not an Egyptian Sunni like Zawahiri. Not so, insist the CIA's Arabic-speaking analysts. "We have the highest confidence in the letter's authenticity," a senior intelligence official reiterated Friday.

At the heart of the letter is an argument that al Qaeda must build a broad political movement in the Muslim world, even as it continues its military campaign to drive America and Israel from the region. Students of 20th-century history will recall a similar shift by the Communist Party in the 1930s, when it moved from a tight, exclusionary strategy to a broader one known as the "Popular Front." Zawahiri's call for mass Muslim politics, which would include those outside his own tight Salafist circle, is plausible because it tracks other recent statements.

"We are in a media battle in a race for the hearts and minds of our umma ," Zawahiri advises, referring to Muslim peoples. He chastises his field commander for using brutal tactics that are alienating the masses. "The common folk are wondering," he says, about Zarqawi's slaughter of poor Shiite civilians, his bombings at mosques and his gruesome beheading of hostages, all of which the masses "will never find palatable." In the elaborate politeness of Arabic discourse, Zawahiri is telling his firebrand commander: You are blowing it. We cannot achieve political power by terrifying our fellow Muslims. Here again, the letter, along with other recent indications, reveals that al Qaeda's leadership is unhappy with Zarqawi's cutthroat tactics.

The Zawahiri of the letter is a clever commander. Even on the run, cut off from normal communications, he has a remarkable ability to see the battle space. He takes it for granted that the Americans are pulling out of Iraq and expects some sort of United Nations-sponsored transition. He advises Zarqawi to "fill the void" quickly by establishing a Sunni "emirate" ministate as the Americans leave areas where the insurgents are strong.

The letter also draws a fascinating self-portrait of Zawahiri himself. We sense the vanity of this man who bears an ostentatious prayer mark on his forehead from bowing in prayer so passionately each day. He asks if Zarqawi has seen his appearances on al-Jazeera, read his recent book, listened to his 15 audio statements.

We sense Zawahiri's isolation. He can't see television or read newspapers easily. He complains frequently of being out of touch, and it's clear that some of his couriers have been intercepted, making communication difficult. And he senses that his enemies are closing in. One of his top deputies, Abu Faraj Libbi, was lured into a trap earlier this year, and Zawahiri still seems unclear how it happened. "The real danger comes from the agent Pakistani army," he says -- and he's right. I'm told the Pakistanis have stealthily captured or killed more than 400 of al Qaeda's leaders.

We see, finally, that Zawahiri is being squeezed by Iran. He tells Zarqawi to stop his crazed anti-Shiite attacks because the Iranians are holding more than 100 al Qaeda prisoners, many of them old members of the leadership or part of Osama bin Laden's family. Zarqawi's bloodthirsty assault on the Shiites, he says, "compels the Iranians to take countermeasures." If the letter is an Iranian forgery, which is one of the possibilities Cole suggests, it's a diabolically astute one.

Reading the Zawahiri letter, you sense that the field of battle is shifting. Al Qaeda is waging a political war for Muslim hearts and minds as it seeks to build a global caliphate. America shouldn't make the same mistake for which Zawahiri is upbraiding his Iraq commander -- fighting in the Iraq theater in ways that make it harder to win the larger war.


[email protected]


© 2005 The Washington Post Company
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