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ECONOMIST: WHY AMERICA MUST STAY
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Bulsajo



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2005 11:07 am    Post subject: ECONOMIST: WHY AMERICA MUST STAY Reply with quote

Once againThe Economist proves itself the best news magazine, bar none.



Excellent editorial, but you'll have to buy it at the bookstore or subscribe to the premium online content to see the whole thing.

I'm going to type a few paragraphs that really struck me as concise and compelling, from the middle of the article (all typos and spelling mistakes are mine):

"Every reasonable person should be able to agree on two things about America's presence in Iraq. First, if the Iraqi government formally asks the troops to leave, they should do so. Second, the argument about whether America should quit Iraq is not the same as the one about whether it should have gone there in the first place. It must be about the future.

That said, the catalogue of failures thus far does raise serious questions about the administration's ability to make Iraq work- ever. Mr. Bush's team mis-sold the war, neglected post-invasion planning, has never committed enough troops to the task and has taken a cavalier attitude to human rights. Abu Ghraib, a place of unspeakable suffering under Mr. Hussein, will go into the history books as a symbol of American shame. The awful irony is that the specious link which the administration claimed existed between Iraq and al-Qaeda in order to justify going to war now exists.

Two and a half years after Mr. Bush stood beneath a banner proclaiming "Mission Accomplished", the insurgency is as strong as ever. More than 2000 Americans, some 3600 Iraqi troops, perhaps 30,000 Iraqi civilians and an unknown number of insurgents have lost their lives, and conditions of life for the "liberated" remain woeful. All this makes Mr. Bush's refusal to sack the people responsible for this mess, especially his defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, alarming.

But disappointment, even on this scale, does not justify a precipitate withdrawal. There are strong positive and negative reasons for America to see through what it started."

The analysis is summarized:
"The cost ot America of staying in Iraq may be high, but the cost of retreat would be higher. By fleeing, America would not buy itself peace."

and the conclusion:
"If such reasoning sounds negative- America must stay because the consequences of leaving would be too awful- treat that as a sad reflection of how Mr. Bush's vision for the Middle East has soured. The road ahead looks bloody and costly. But this is not the time to retreat."

I left out the details of the analysis but they're the guts of the piece and really should be read.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2005 2:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd be more amenable to listening to arguments for staying longer if the British, Japanese and Koreans weren't all talking about getting out and if some other countries were talking about shouldering some of the burden.
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Wangja



Joined: 17 May 2004
Location: Seoul, Yongsan

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2005 3:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
I'd be more amenable to listening to arguments for staying longer if the British, Japanese and Koreans weren't all talking about getting out and if some other countries were talking about shouldering some of the burden.


So, YTB, are you an "out and out now chap"?

Bulsajo - yes, if you read only one newspaper a week, let it be the Economist.
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VanIslander



Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Location: Geoje, Hadong, Tongyeong,... now in a small coastal island town outside Gyeongsangnamdo!

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2005 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Economist knows big business and oil money is at stake in Iraq. It's all about $$$.

Quote:
Mr. Bush's team mis-sold the war

"Mis-sold"?? Nothing like using a financial concept from the banking industry (mis-selling mortgages, bonds, etc) to explain such a travesty.

But I guess Bush himself said after the first election that he had political capital and that he was gonna spend it!! Shocked He sure has. And then some. He makes Nixon look good.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2005 4:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
So, YTB, are you an "out and out now chap"?


I have really mixed feelings about this. I was adamantly opposed to the invasion but once in, I thought we needed to stay until stability was achieved. Kind of the "If you break it, you buy it" school of thought.

But over the last two years things have been so poorly managed and so destructive of what I think are traditional US values, plus the horrendously high cost in money and the mounting cost in blood that I welcomed Rep. Murtha's speech last week saying 'out in 6 months'. (I take the '6 months' to mean 'pretty damn soon', not necessarily literally 6 months.)

I do agree with the comment in the Economist about 'the future'. However, if all the 'willing' allies are bailing and no one else wants to share the burden, then clearly the international community doesn't think the future of the Middle East is as bleak as it seems to me. If they did, then countries would be discussing ways of supporting and joining (in some fashion) the effort to bring stability to Iraq. On a bad day, I take a note from igotthisguitar's way of looking at the world and suspect everyone is sitting back saying, "Let's leave the Yanks to stew in their own juices...and spend their treasure in Iraq. A weaker US is in our interest."


PS: It took about a minute to decipher "an out and out now chap". Reading the 'out and out' as a phrase (as in an 'out and out failure'), I thought you were asking if I thought I was a with-it, kind of guy. Cool Of course I am, but wondered WTF is he asking me about that in a thread like this?
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Wangja



Joined: 17 May 2004
Location: Seoul, Yongsan

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2005 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
PS: It took about a minute to decipher "an out and out now chap". Reading the 'out and out' as a phrase (as in an 'out and out failure'), I thought you were asking if I thought I was a with-it, kind of guy. Of course I am, but wondered WTF is he asking me about that in a thread like this?


Just this bit for now: yes, you are right. I am sorry, my punctuation was poor so the meaning was obscured! As you correctly worked out, I meant "are you an out - and out now - chap"? Well done.
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rok_the-boat



Joined: 24 Jan 2004

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2005 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was against the war before it started and could clearly see between the fabricated arguments. However, once British soldiers were commited, being British, so was I. I might not like the war, but if you fight one, there is nothing you can do but fight to win the best deal you can. No one wants to get their ass kicked and have to run away.
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riley



Joined: 08 Feb 2003
Location: where creditors can find me

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2005 5:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I knew this war was pure foolishness before we went in. The reasons given were bullshit pure and simple.
Now that we are in Iraq, I feel we have to stay. Not because we would look like losers but because hopefully we can help make it better. ( I too subscribe to the "You break it, You pay for it" philosophy) The problem is, as Ya-Ta boy said, we have made so many mistakes. Our government has acted like arrogant fools (something that has happened many times in American foriegn policy) by not doing any research and relying on assumptions instead. (Iraqis will welcome us with open arms)
But staying and fixing our mistakes goes against a fundamental problem of democracy. When we listen to the people, the choices created and decided upon by the people tend to be simple and short term, ie cut'n'run. This is only an answer for stopping American soldiers from being shot and killed today but it won't stop it from happening 1 year from now because our work has created a blistering boil in the Middle East. The politicians can't explain to the voters that problem because it takes too much effort to get the message across. Democracy relies on the lowest common denominator (the loudest, simplest message) to have something happen.
On a seperate tangent, it's interesting how often the military is more cautious than the politicians.
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bucheon bum



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2005 8:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

VanIslander wrote:
The Economist knows big business and oil money is at stake in Iraq. It's all about $$$.


not too familiar with the economist are you?

If you really think that's why the economist came up with that opinion, then you really didn't read the pasting above nor the article itself.

Yes, the economist is definitly pro-business, but it isn't that simpleton.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2005 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
it's interesting how often the military is more cautious than the politicians.


Yes, it is. And we're all a lot safer as long as it's true.
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Bulsajo



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2005 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
I'd be more amenable to listening to arguments for staying longer if the British, Japanese and Koreans weren't all talking about getting out and if some other countries were talking about shouldering some of the burden.

Well, that's a tricky one isn't it?
The Economist says that we should separate the arguments of whether or not it was right for the US to go into Iraq from the arguments of whether or not the US should stay... but in terms of helping to shoulder the burden you're not going to find any support for that amongst countries who were ostracized for not participating in the first place, such as Germany and France (who could make a difference) as well as Canada (who really couldn't do more than a symbolic gesture even if they wanted to).

It really does appear to be case of cleaning up one's own mess. Of course that should apply to the UK and other coalition partners as welll.
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Bulsajo



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2005 9:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

VanIslander wrote:
The Economist knows big business and oil money is at stake in Iraq. It's all about $$$.

Quote:
Mr. Bush's team mis-sold the war

"Mis-sold"?? Nothing like using a financial concept from the banking industry (mis-selling mortgages, bonds, etc) to explain such a travesty.

On the contrary I believe it to be the most concise and accurate way to describe the Bush Administration's case for war in Iraq. It's clearly illustrated in many books, such as (I know I'm sounding- yet again- like a broken record) Plan of Attack, Chain of Command, Imperial Hubris, America's Secret War.

The Bush Administration had numerous reasons for going into Iraq (some good but most not) and it had to consciously decide which one would rally both domestic and international opinion in favour of going to war. So it was in large part a marketing exercise, thus the concept of 'selling the war'. Bush chose to sell the WMD threat. It was the most emotional one, and an atomic bomb going off somewhere was an image everyone could immediately understand as being a 'must prevent at all costs' issue.

It's not cloak and dagger stuff, it's more like take out your crayon and connect the dots. More and more I'm finding CNN and other 24 hour instant media sources give us too much information and not enough analysis. You get lost in the moment and can't see 'the big picture' or 'the forest for the trees' (choose your metaphor). It's an endemic problem.

The "Immediate withdrawal of US troops" issue is a perfect case in point.
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EFLtrainer



Joined: 04 May 2005

PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2005 10:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I must disagree with the Economist, I think. I say "I think" only because I know none of the datails of the article. However, most arguments against a (relatively) quick pullout seem to ignore one very fundamental fact: We are what the insurgency is aimed at. We (the USA) are the target, but the insurgency also directly targets Iraqis in an attempt to turn them against the "coalition." They use war with us, terror with their own people, but to get the same result.

Get us out, they have no justification. If they continued their campaign after we left, you'd see much the same reaction as we recently saw in Jordan. If you accept this argument, then it bcomes obvious that the readiness of the Iraqi military is irrelevant.

Get out. The faster the better.
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EFLtrainer



Joined: 04 May 2005

PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2005 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I must disagree with the Economist, I think. I say "I think" only because I know none of the datails of the article. However, most arguments against a (relatively) quick pullout seem to ignore one very fundamental fact: We are what the insurgency is aimed at. We (the USA) are the target, but the insurgency also directly targets Iraqis in an attempt to turn them against the "coalition." They use war with us, terror with their own people, but to get the same result.

Get us out, they have no justification. If they continued their campaign after we left, you'd see much the same reaction as we recently saw in Jordan. If you accept this argument, then it bcomes obvious that the readiness of the Iraqi military is irrelevant.

Add to that the incompetence of the current administration and the virtual given that whatever they do in the future will only make things worse, well....

Get out. The faster the better.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2005 10:24 am    Post subject: But what about the Sunnis and Shi'a hatin' on each other? Reply with quote

EFLTrainer wrote:
If they continued their campaign after we left, you'd see much the same reaction as we recently saw in Jordan. If you accept this argument, then it bcomes obvious that the readiness of the Iraqi military is irrelevant.


That's not a bad point, EFLTrainer. However, it doesn't address another problem that might accompany American withdrawal: a civil war between the Sunni and the Shi'a as U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad fears.


Quote:
Why not just leave, as so many Americans want? Khalilzad, in an interview, spoke in the most specific terms yet heard from a senior U.S. official about what a panicky pullout could bring. "People need to be clear what the stakes are here," says Khalilzad. "If we were to do a premature withdrawal, there could be a Shia-Sunni war here that could spread beyond Iraq. And you could have Iran backing the Shias and Sunni Arab states backing the Sunnis. You could have a regional war that could go on for a very long time, and affect the security of oil supplies. Terrorists could take over part of this country and expand from here. And given the resources of Iraq, given the technical expertise of its people, it will make Afghanistan look like child's play." An Army War College study published last month put matters more succinctly: "The long-term dilemma of the U.S. position in Iraq can perhaps best be summarized as, 'We can't stay, we can't leave, and we can't fail'."
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