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Bulsajo
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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 Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2006 11:35 am Post subject: Civil War (?), Religious War? |
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What happens if (when?) full blown civil war breaks out in Iraq?
Spreads and pits Saudi Arabia against Iran (for starters)?
I know there will be 'the only good Muslim is a dead Muslim' types rejoicing, but what about the rest of us?
Shiites and Sunnis targeting each other's oil infratructure?
What happens if we find ourselves on the same side as al Qaeda in a war against Iran?
Do we look the other way?
What happens if India thinks the resulting instability would mean an outright grab for Kashmir is possible?
Just thinking out loud, I have no idea what the possibilities of any of these scenarios are- just feeling pessimistic today and wondering about worst possible outcomes...
I notice in the article below they still manage to fling some blame towards the US, I.E. the ambassador "inciting" terrorism...
sure, whatever  - who wants to bet he was speaking out against the Shiite death squads recently discovered in the govt?
| Quote: |
Blast at Iraqi Shiite Shrine Spawns Reprisals Against Sunnis
By Louise Roug and Zaydan Khalaf, Times Staff Writers
SAMARRA, Iraq -- Armed and angry Shiite Muslims attacked several Sunni mosques in Baghdad today after insurgents destroyed one of the country's holiest Shiite shrines here during a morning assault, stoking the already deep sectarian conflict in the country.
The golden dome of the once-majestic shrine along the banks of the Tigris River was completely sheared off. Gunmen stormed the shrine, kicking out the guards and setting the explosive devices that destroyed the dome, according to witnesses.
At least 10 Sunni mosques throughout Baghdad were attacked in apparent reprisals, some of them torched or shot at with rocket-propelled grenades, police said. Government officials and powerful clerics called for calm, but their statements were tinged with anger. Even Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, long a voice of restraint in the face of violence against his Shiite followers, hinted that the attack on the shrine required a militant response.
"The Iraqi government now is supported more than ever, and if its security apparatuses are not able to offer the required security, then the faithful must be able to do it, with the help of God," according to a statement released by Sistani's office in Najaf.
U.S. officials condemned the attack in a statement and vowed to fund the rebuilding of the shrine, a call echoed by Samarra tribal leaders, most of them Sunnis, and Iraq's Kurdish president, Jalal Talabani.
"Terrorists in Iraq have again proven that they are enemies of all faiths and of all humanity," President Bush said today in a statement. He echoed the call for restraint among Iraqis.
"I ask all Iraqis to exercise restraint in the wake of this tragedy, and to pursue justice in accordance with the laws and constitution of Iraq," Bush said. "Violence will only contribute to what the terrorists sought to achieve by this act."
But his words hardly soothed some of those outraged by the attack. In the southern city of Basra, angry Shiites stormed and burned the office of the Iraqi Islamic Party, a Sunni political group, as well as the main Sunni mosque in the city, officials and witnesses said.
The morning attack on the Samarra shrine, on one of four major Shiite holy sites in Iraq, sent waves of shock and panic across the country as Iraqis of all sects and ethnic backgrounds braced for reprisals and regional consequences. Prime Minister Ibrahim Jafari ordered government offices closed while Sistani called for a week of mourning.
"Many ignorant people will be pushed to do the same to the Sunni sacred places," said Brig. Gen. Mudhir Moula, a high-ranking official in the Iraqi Defense Ministry. "This may be the start of the civil war."
Demonstrations broke out in the capital and throughout Iraq's mostly Shiite south. In Baghdad's Sadr City, loyalists to rebel cleric Muqtada Sadr, wielded AK-47s and chanted condemnation.
Abdelaziz Hakim, leader of the largest Shiite party, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, blamed recent statements by U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad which he called "irresponsible." The ambassador on Monday encouraged the formation of national unity government that would include Sunnis and sharply criticized the conduct of Shiite-dominated security forces.
"He did not act like an ambassador," Hakim said. "His statement gave the green light to the terrorist groups and therefore we blame him for part of what happened."
The attack in Samarra also fueled anger in Iran, Bahrain, Lebanon and South Asia, with Shiite leaders demanding apologies and safeguarding of sites sacred to their sect's followers. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, also called for a week of mourning.
No one took responsibility for the near-destruction of the shrine, where the remains of three of the faith's 12 chief imams, or saints, are believed to be resting.
Shiites and Sunnis both revere the prophet Muhammad but split over lines of succession early in the history of Islam. Sunnis believe the various caliphs were the leaders of the faith while Shiites revere 12 descendants of the prophet.
The 10th and 11th descendants, the imams Ali Hadi and Hassan Askari, are buried in the gold-domed shrine. A nearby blue-tiled shrine houses the cellar where the last saint, the imam Mahdi, was said to have disappeared. His return is said to herald the start of a new age.
The government put the security forces on high alert. Hundreds of Iraqi soldiers were dispatched to protect Sunni neighborhoods in Baghdad. In the Western neighborhood of Adamiya, security forces closed off streets, preventing access to Abu Hanifa, the capital's main Sunni mosque.
Across the river, in the predominately Shiite neighborhood of Kahdimiya, closed shops were draped with banners condemning the attacks.
Groups of men, wearing black headbands and carrying AK-47s, surrounded throngs of demonstrators. Some of the protesters were crying or beating their chests in despair.
"This will ignite problems between the Sunnis and Shiites," said Haider Hazem, a 24-year-old shop owner who was taking part in the demonstration. "The Shiites are very angry. The Wahhabis committed the ugliest thing ever. We can't stand it any longer. We are ready to sacrifice our lives."
U.S. officials condemned the attack in a statement and vowed to fund the rebuilding of the shrine, a call echoed by Samarra tribal leaders, most of them Sunnis, and Iraq's Kurdish president, Jalal Talabani.
President Bush condemned the attack, saying the "terrorists in Iraq have again proven that they are enemies of all faiths and of all humanity." He echoed the call for restraint among Iraqis.
"I ask all Iraqis to exercise restraint in the wake of this tragedy, and to pursue justice in accordance with the laws and constitution of Iraq, Bush said in a statement. "Violence will only contribute to what the terrorists sought to achieve by this act."
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http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-022206iraq_lat,0,1891618.story?coll=la-home-headlines |
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Summer Wine
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Location: Next to a River
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| Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2006 6:46 pm Post subject: |
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| It really doesn't look good. If Al Quaida is found to behind this by the shiite and sunni groups they may find their welcome cut short. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2006 10:22 pm Post subject: Hakim is Iran's mouthpiece |
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| Bulsajo wrote: |
I notice in the article below they still manage to fling some blame towards the US, I.E. the ambassador "inciting" terrorism...
sure, whatever - who wants to bet he was speaking out against the Shiite death squads recently discovered in the govt? |
| Quote: |
Abdelaziz Hakim, leader of the largest Shiite party, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, blamed recent statements by U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad which he called "irresponsible." The ambassador on Monday encouraged the formation of national unity government that would include Sunnis and sharply criticized the conduct of Shiite-dominated security forces.
"He did not act like an ambassador," Hakim said. "His statement gave the green light to the terrorist groups and therefore we blame him for part of what happened." |
SCIRI is Iran's puppet party.
| Wikipedia wrote: |
| The party was founded in 1982 after the near annihilation of the Islamic Dawa Party after the latter's failed assassination attempt on Saddam Hussein. It was largely based in Tehran and during the Iran-Iraq War the Iranians recognized the SCIRI as the government of the Islamic Republic of Iraq. The SCIRI ideology was closely based on that of Khomeini, and was far closer to the Iranian model than al-Dawa, with the SCIRI supporting control of government by the ulema. |
Apparently, according to the BBC three years ago, they have some firepower.
| BBC wrote: |
| The organisation has an armed wing funded by Iran, the 10,000-strong Badr Brigade. |
If you want an answer to why America is now supporting the former rebel Moqtada Al-Sadr, SCIRI is part of the equation. They are the only other sizable and viable faction. Although Sistani's support of Moqtada, his popular following in the South and in Baghdad's Sadr city, and his vowed allegiance to a unified Iraq helped.
But I digress. My guess is that since Iran would welcome chaos in Iraq, it would not be unreasonable to speculate that their Badr Brigade is in some way affiliated with the death squads. |
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igotthisguitar
Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
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| Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2006 11:57 pm Post subject: |
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Civil War in Iraq?
"I didn't do it ..." George W. Bush |
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jinglejangle
Joined: 19 Feb 2005
Location: Far far far away.
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| Posted: Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:58 pm Post subject: |
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There will be war. There will be useless killing. Many more will die. It will end. Little to nothing will have been gained.
But it will end. |
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Wrench
Joined: 07 Apr 2005
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| Posted: Thu Feb 23, 2006 11:00 pm Post subject: |
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The bottom line is! Do you care? Really?
Do you care about a backwards ass country with backwards ass religion and beliefs. |
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Summer Wine
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Location: Next to a River
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| Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2006 3:58 am Post subject: |
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| Yes, I do for reasons that may elude you. But historically have been proven in the past. |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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| Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2006 4:23 am Post subject: |
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| Summer Wine wrote: |
| But historically have been proven in the past. |
What an awesome sentence? |
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Bulsajo
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2006 7:49 am Post subject: |
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| Wrench wrote: |
The bottom line is! Do you care? Really?
Do you care about a backwards ass country with backwards ass religion and beliefs. |
I do and you should too, but it doesn't surprise me at all that you don't.
You think this won't affect you in any way?
I thought you were the guy who was bragging about how he understood the Canadian military because he had friends serving. |
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jinglejangle
Joined: 19 Feb 2005
Location: Far far far away.
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| Posted: Sat Feb 25, 2006 1:44 am Post subject: |
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| I don't really care either at this point. Not that I don't feel for all those who will be hurt. It's a terrible situation. At this point though, I think civil war is pretty much inevitable. I think that the best case scenario is for 4 years of peace once the US pulls out. If the US stays past 2 more years in any strength I don't even give them that. Ultimately, I think the Iraqis will have to work this out, and I think that violence will play a role. I don't see what will be gained by a continued western presence (particularly US). |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sat Feb 25, 2006 2:43 am Post subject: |
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| jinglejangle wrote: |
| I don't really care either at this point. Not that I don't feel for all those who will be hurt. It's a terrible situation. At this point though, I think civil war is pretty much inevitable. I think that the best case scenario is for 4 years of peace once the US pulls out. If the US stays past 2 more years in any strength I don't even give them that. Ultimately, I think the Iraqis will have to work this out, and I think that violence will play a role. I don't see what will be gained by a continued western presence (particularly US). |
The reason to stay might have something to do with this:
| WaPo wrote: |
The number of Iraqi army battalions judged by their American trainers to be capable of fighting insurgents without U.S. help has fallen from one to none since September, Pentagon officials said yesterday.
But the number of Iraqi battalions capable of leading the battle, with U.S. troops in a support role, has grown by nearly 50 percent. And the number of battalions engaged in combat has increased by 11 percent.
The Pentagon says its short-term goal is to train more Iraqi units to a level where they can lead the fight, because that allows U.S. troops to focus on tasks besides combat and could reduce U.S. casualties.
In the longer run, however, Iraq's military will have to reach a level of full independence so it can take over the battle against the insurgency and allow the Bush administration to withdraw U.S. troops eventually. |
It's an open debate as to whether the American presence itself is the leading cause for the insurgency. Recent events suggest that there would probably be a Sunni insurgency against the government to try to push a civil war even should the US leave, although I will not deny that the US may have pushed a lot more insurgents into the mix by their harsh and brazen tactics.
But I sympathize with your pessimism. One doesn't have confidence in the leadership and I won't argue that the US will achieve any of its initial objectives in Iraq. All it can do in Iraq now is try to keep the situation from getting worse. |
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Alias
Joined: 24 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Sun Feb 26, 2006 2:42 am Post subject: |
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| It looks like US troops will be there for some time. No withdrawl in any amounts before the congressional electrions. I wonder how Republicans seeking re-election will play this? |
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igotthisguitar
Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
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Troll_Bait
Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Location: [T]eaching experience doesn't matter much. -Lee Young-chan (pictured)
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