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[sundubuman]

So long, Europe; hello, India

By JAY AMBROSE
Scripps Howard News Service
02-MAR-06

It's hello, India, and goodbye, Europe, as the United States seeks out a strong new partner in world affairs, one that is growing, bold and confident instead of one that is hiding from the future and in steep decline.

If that assessment of President Bush's meeting with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh puts too sharp an edge on something that will take years for history to chisel into something so definite, it is nevertheless the case that a lot more was going on than a deal on nuclear energy and closer bilateral trade ties.

If Congress approves the treaty, the United States is embracing an India that, during the Cold War, frequently sided with the Soviet Union's evil ambitions. For decades, some observers note, India was a haphazardly governed bureaucratic nightmare and an impoverished economic flop that got that way because of the socialist stupidities furthered by long-term leader Jawaharlal Nehru.

But something remarkable happened. Free markets happened. India today has a 7 percent to 8 percent growth rate, an innovative entrepreneurial class, highly efficient corporations and the prospect of becoming one of the largest economies in the world in the years ahead. It is already the world's largest democracy. It wants to be a major world player, and it will be.

There are those who think this nuclear deal is a way of the United States winking at India's nuclear weaponry while it wrings its hands over Iran's plans to acquire nukes. But wise commentators point out that India possesses WMD at this very minute and is not a rogue state run by wacko fascists _ not to get the difference is not to get much of anything. India is likely on its way to being a hugely important ally, a check against China as it emerges into a superpower, and a crucial trading partner that can help us grow more wealthy as we help it grow more wealthy.

Europe, meanwhile, is heading downward, or at least much of it. This is no small or wonderful thing for the United States. Our country is a European-British offspring. We share the same cultural heritage. But today, much of Europe thumbs its nose at us. Many there seem to see our liberty as a subjugation of the weak and our energy as having purely materialist objectives. Meanwhile, the Europeans are wrapping their own liberties and energy in the blanket of a protectionist, welfare state with a rule for every business occasion.

Hence the decline, which is made clear by statistics, such as those showing the per-capita GDP in the European Union is just three quarters of what it is in the United States. Says Fareed Zakaria in a Newsweek column, the French and Germans could be just half as well off as the average American in another two decades. This, he says, will "translate into poorer health care and education, diminished access to all kinds of goods and services, and a lower quality of life."

Maybe you think the semi-socialism of the Scandinavian states makes them different. Not so. Zakaria notes a study revealing that 40 percent of Swedish households would be classified as low-income here. Bruce Bawer, a freelance writer in Oslo, Norway, has said in a piece for The New York Times that Sweden's GDP is higher than that of only 14 states in the United States. As it stood before more countries were added to it in 2004, the European Union as a whole would come in just fifth from the bottom, he reports.

Things are going to get much worse because Europe's population is shrinking. You are going to have fewer and fewer workers supporting more and more elderly in social-security programs that the public doesn't want changed _ but that cannot be sustained. Given the protectionist policies of the governments, trade won't be the answer, and forget entrepreneurial innovation: Businesses are hobbled by too many regulations.

Contrast this comfortable, sleepy Europe afraid of disturbing the status quo with a vibrant, wide-awake India that is pulling itself out of desperate circumstances, and you can see why the United States is beginning to look East instead of West as it considers its own most fundamental interests in the century ahead.

[Kuros]

Sundubuman, you are aware that President Bush has basically promised Indian PM M. Singh that Congress would change longstanding laws against providing nuclear energy to states outside of NPT, right? He did this despite the fact that most of Congress is in open rebellion against him for his Dubai Ports 'decision', and his polls are at a low 34% approval rate.

It is very likely that Congress will refuse to endorse Bush's promise, and the US will come off the worse for it because India will feel cheated, not unlike the Dubai situation.

There's also the aspect that President Bush is unilaterally trying to abrogate NPT without conferring with any other of the treaty members. READ: His proposal is a clear violation of the NPT. How can we sit now and castigate Iran for its suspected violations and lack of candor while we actually go and openly violate NPT provisions?

[Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee]

India has a lot of friends in Congress. Dollars to donuts that the deal will go through.

IMHO NPT is a failure. If Iran and North Korea get nuclear weapons what is the point anymore?

The US ought to announce to the world that if Iran gets nuclear weapons then the US will withdraw from the NPT. That ought to give the nations of the world something to think about. And the US ought to tell China that if they keep interfering with sanctions against Iran and if Iran gets nuclear weapons then the US will provide 10 Trident submarines - fully loaded with MIRVed SLBMs of course - to Taiwan.


A lot of nations in the world want to stick it to the US - well time to let them know that what goes around comes around.

[mithridates]

It's not that simple though - Europe is already quite industrialized and advanced and I think part of the reason why their economic growth isn't that impressive is because there's no pressing need to make things all that much better. Take this article for example:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/04/AR2006030400180.html

In India and China a lot of growth is from a sense of desperation / basic want to stand up with the rest of the industrialized nations in the world. The last time I lived in Japan (2002) the economy was still bad, but most of my friends had about two or three jobs and still got nice bonuses, drove perfectly new cars and complained about the economy on their snazzy new phones. One guy who was an accountant didn't have all that much luck getting a job in Dazaifu where he lived and eventually ended up in Tokyo, but during the year in Dazaifu when he couldn't find work he pretty much just lived it up, hung around, studied whatever he felt like, saw his girlfriend on the weekend, and just spent a year doing whatever. In a country like Japan and places in western Europe you have the leeway to hang out for a year if you want. You might get bored but nobody's going to starve, and your country will still be fine.

Europe has a lot of problems with bloated bureaucracy, but as far as daily life goes it's pretty good.

[ontheway]

mithridates,

Thanks for that article. It supports sundubuman's article nicely. The positive results that come from the modest deregulation of a single industry (airlines). Imagine, if Europe were to throw off it's socialistic government shackles. Their standard of living could double in 7 years, or less.

[Tiger Beer]

Its an interesting article.. quite a few of the 'future of Europe' might have been more commonplace talked about a couple years back. However..

The author of that article is missing out on a few extremely critical details thats occurred over the last couple years. One.. the largest one.. is that the EURO has become immensily more stronger and powerful against the DOLLAR.. and in addition.. quite a few countries within the Muslim world in particular and some outside.. would joyously switch to using the Euro as international currency so that honor/power is no longer going to the U.S.

The only really interesting thing about this article is in regards to India.. as is its been the world's largest working democracy for quite some time now.. and its about time its finally been acknowledged to that level particularly high up within the Bush administration - being they are so democracy-centric these days.

[Kuros]

[mindmetoo]

[bigverne]