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canuckistan
Mod Team
Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Location: Training future GS competitors.....
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 Posted: Mon May 01, 2006 12:19 am Post subject: The possibility of bird flu making the jump.... |
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Muted warnings here in the USA but with strong suggestions of a certain level of preparedness ie: storing enough food/water for a period of time in which one could expect curtailed goods/services--with the idea of being able to sustain and isolate oneself from contact with others for a while.
According to epidemiologists we're overdue for a global pandemic. I suppose with this virus on its way to becoming entrenched in the wild bird population globally, the opportunities for it to make the jump to human-to-human transmission become greater. It would really suck if it did--at present the mortality rate is 50%, even in healthy adults.
I've been having this discussion with some fellow educators, who are also involved in the community planning in the case of such an epidemic.
Are you familiar with biohazard avoidance protocols? (ie: regular household bleach is your friend)
How would you prepare?
200 lbs of Kimchi doesn't count  |
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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| Posted: Mon May 01, 2006 1:00 am Post subject: |
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| I don't know about biohazard protocols, but I wish that Korean school administrators would at least try to discourage students from bringing stray birds to school in boxes (and putting them near my face...) |
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canuckistan
Mod Team
Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Location: Training future GS competitors.....
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| Posted: Mon May 01, 2006 7:12 am Post subject: |
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| Rteacher wrote: |
| I don't know about biohazard protocols, but I wish that Korean school administrators would at least try to discourage students from bringing stray birds to school in boxes (and putting them near my face...) |
It would probably be a good to teach the kids to cover their mouths when they cough/sneeze too! |
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hermes.trismegistus
Joined: 08 Sep 2005
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| Posted: Mon May 01, 2006 7:48 am Post subject: |
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Until they successfully isolate a pathogen, pass Koch's Postulates and make a Gold Standard, I see no reason to bother.
Another SARS lie to keep the populace in line. Hooray for Big Pharma.
We seem to have that mistake of association and causation all over again. And relying on the same trite methods - PCR and RFLP!
Better prepared than unprepared, but concern should be blunted with so many red flags.
Namaste. |
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canuckistan
Mod Team
Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Location: Training future GS competitors.....
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| Posted: Mon May 01, 2006 9:33 am Post subject: |
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| hermes.trismegistus wrote: |
Until they successfully isolate a pathogen, pass Koch's Postulates and make a Gold Standard, I see no reason to bother....
Better prepared than unprepared, but concern should be blunted with so many red flags. |
Certainly, but by the time any health org would isolate a pathogen and attempt to create an effective vaccine vs a mutating virus it may be much more difficult to "get ready" with quarantines falling into place. Panic would also be the biggest initial problem with all its other effects.
Forget about drugs like Tamiflu etc--there seem to be already resistant strains to it--Tamiflu and other antivirals also need to be taken within 24 hours of flu symptoms appearing. To be sure, most gov'ts would be limited in their capacity to deliver much aid.
For now people should spend just a few moments thinking about a basic plan for themselves, including strict hygiene practices (handwashing, protecting eyes, nose, mouth) if they would have to venture out, or, planning to sustain themselves if they would stay put.
If and when it jumps is not a good time to start thinking about it.
Many epidemiologists believe it is not a question of if, but when it makes the jump--the nature of viruses being to continually mutate and seek new hosts to attach themselves to--they're like any other organism with a drive to survive.
There's also the possibility the virus would become weakened enough to have a much lower mortality rate than at present. That would be a best case scenario. |
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Demophobe
Joined: 17 May 2004
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| Posted: Mon May 01, 2006 4:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Yep...if those boys keep doing that with those chickens, somethings gonna happen. |
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hermes.trismegistus
Joined: 08 Sep 2005
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| Posted: Mon May 01, 2006 7:09 pm Post subject: |
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| canuckistan wrote: |
| Many epidemiologists believe it is not a question of if, but when it makes the jump--the nature of viruses being to continually mutate and seek new hosts to attach themselves to--they're like any other organism with a drive to survive. |
Many epidemiologists have their heads squarely up their arses. Look at the fine job they've done of ignoring the inconsistencies with HIV/AIDS.
We assume that the virus mutates continually, but no proof exists of this hyper-mutation. We rely on PCR and RFLP to amplify incredibly minute quantities of substrate which we identify as viral, without ever having actually isolated any virus at all. Chains of RNA != virus. A low titre will not make someone sick. A low titure and an antibody response indicates healthy immunological response, not imminent debilitation.
This sounds every bit the scam that SARS was, from dozens of angles.
We've got around 100 deaths globally - so far - attributed to H5N1. What diagnostic methods were used to ascertain the cause of these deaths? No one will say.
In Turkey the two boys who died were pronounced to have died from H5N1 in the absence of any testing at all. So we didn't test them for the RNA we associate with H5N1, but we magically know that they died from H5N1. Shoddy science.
Rappoport loves covering H5N1, as does the dissident scientist.
Namaste. |
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Troll_Bait
Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Location: [T]eaching experience doesn't matter much. -Lee Young-chan (pictured)
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| Posted: Mon May 01, 2006 7:19 pm Post subject: Re: The possibility of bird flu making the jump.... |
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| canuckistan wrote: |
Are you familiar with biohazard avoidance protocols? (ie: regular household bleach is your friend)
How would you prepare?
200 lbs of Kimchi doesn't count |
Household bleach and kimchi taste different??? |
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canuckistan
Mod Team
Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Location: Training future GS competitors.....
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| Posted: Tue May 02, 2006 9:49 am Post subject: |
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hermes.trismegistus wrote:
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| We assume that the virus mutates continually, but no proof exists of this hyper-mutation. |
Yikes! Did you fail genetics? We wouldn't even be here without genetic mutations.
HIV has mutated to different strains--some more resistant to conventional drug treatments than others. Viruses are smart--they constantly change to survive.
I'll make this antigenic drift and shift easy for you:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigenic_shift
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Antigenic shift is contrasted with antigenic drift, which is the natural mutation over time of known strains of influenza (or other things, in a more general sense) to evade the immune system. Antigenic drift occurs in all types of influenza including influenza A, B and C. Antigenic shift, however, occurs only in influenza A because it infects more than just humans. Affected species include other mammals and birds, giving influenza A the opportunity for a major reorganization of surface antigens. Influenza B and C only infect humans, minimizing the chance to mutate drastically.
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Any jump would occur from inluenza A type.
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A low titure and an antibody response indicates healthy immunological response, not imminent debilitation.
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An immune response to flu is normal. So far H5N1 sometimes produces an immune response "storm"--too much of a response, causing serious complications, which is why it can be fatal.
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/353/13/1374
More plainly said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transmission_and_infection_of_H5N1#Symptoms
http://www.hon.ch/News/HSN/529060.html
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When the H5N1 virus comes into contact with the cells of the trachea and small air sacs in the lungs, it drives up the production of these cytokines, Sandrock explained. The cytokines trigger inflammation, a normal response by the body to help fight the virus.
"The problem is that sometimes the inflammation can be so bad there's collateral damage," he said. "That collateral damage can cause inflammation and damage to your lungs enough so that you are unable to breathe, and you get acute respiratory distress."
The findings provide a scientific reason for what is being seen clinically, Sandrock said. "But there's still a lot we don't know," he added.
"This study confirms earlier work that H5N1 induces a cytokine 'storm,'" said Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota School of Public Health, in Minneapolis. "It helps us understand the pathophysiology of the disease."
[color=redThe noted increase in cytokine production is what distinguishes avian flu from other flu, Osterholm said. "The hyperproduction of cytokines is very relevant. It points out that the way people actually experience severe illness with this virus is different than what we see with other influenza viruses."
"This is basically a cytokine storm induced by this specific virus, which then leads to respiratory distress syndrome," Osterholm said. "This also makes sense of why you tend to see a preponderance of severe illness in those who tend to be the healthiest, because the ability to increase the production of cytokines is actually higher in those who are not immune-compromised. It's more likely in those who are otherwise healthy." [/color]
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| This sounds every bit the scam that SARS was, from dozens of angles. |
SARS is completely different from avian flu and an isolated incident in human terms. Avian flu is an ongoing problem.
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We've got around 100 deaths globally - so far - attributed to H5N1. What diagnostic methods were used to ascertain the cause of these deaths? No one will say.
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Plenty of people say and have said. See NEJM articles, unless you want to keep restricting your info to conspiracy-type bloggers.
If this weren't such a serious possibility, I doubt so many health professionals and agencies worldwide would be warning about it (like they are), nor would govt's be making contingency plans (like they are), nor would there be such mass-slaughters of fowl when it is detected in flocks (like they are.) |
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deessell
Joined: 08 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Wed May 03, 2006 2:27 am Post subject: |
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| As someone who "survived" SARS and bird flu while living in Vietnam, I have no doubt that we will all be okay. Disinformation if you ask me. |
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canuckistan
Mod Team
Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Location: Training future GS competitors.....
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| Posted: Wed May 03, 2006 5:59 am Post subject: |
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Hey what happened to hermes.trismegistus' response? I was going to respond to it today. There's something weird going on with the boards since last night--it seems a bunch of posts threads have gone missing, of even the most innocuous sort.
Edit: Dave switched over to a new server last night and some posts/threads were lost.
Last edited by canuckistan on Wed May 03, 2006 1:32 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Homer
Guest
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| Posted: Wed May 03, 2006 6:27 am Post subject: |
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Gotta love the completely out of control "we must be safe" attitude that is sweeping certain countries.
It is the same in Canada where everything is over-ascepticized. Not to mention that whole grotesque SARS media frenzy a couple of years ago...or the Silly Nile Virus scare. Good lord...big pharma must be doing brisk business. |
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JongnoGuru
Joined: 25 May 2004
Location: peeing on your doorstep
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| Posted: Wed May 03, 2006 6:31 am Post subject: |
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| Homer wrote: |
Gotta love the completely out of control "we must be safe" attitude that is sweeping certain countries.
It is the same in Canada where everything is over-ascepticized. Not to mention that whole grotesque SARS media frenzy a couple of years ago...or the Silly Nile Virus scare. Good lord...big pharma must be doing brisk business. |
I agree, but I've got a big cellar with not much in it besides tools, some wine, and a 1/3-full freezer, so I'm liking this whole "let's stockpile food & water", "let's horde provisions" and "let's set bear-traps around the property" idea. Sounds like a fun weekend project!
Lessee now...
Anti-Nork biochemical warfare gas mask? CHECK!
Anti-Yellow Dust mask? CHECK!
Dr. Hwang-approved anti-Asian bird-flu jar of Jeollado kimchee? CHECK! |
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canuckistan
Mod Team
Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Location: Training future GS competitors.....
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| Posted: Wed May 03, 2006 1:21 pm Post subject: |
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Deessell wrote:
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| As someone who "survived" SARS and bird flu while living in Vietnam, I have no doubt that we will all be okay. Disinformation if you ask me |
The mortality rate for SARS varied (depending on age group etc) between 6.8% and 20%.
Avian flu is different from SARS. There are and always have been a hundred or so varieties. The more virulent strains that emerge like H5N1 are what cause the most concern. The present mortality rate for H5N1 is 50% and is being spread by wild birds to a growing list of countries. This gives it more opportunities to come into contact with people and possibly mutate into human-to-human form of transmission.
Congrats on having a great immune system by the way!
In the interim many things can happen (or not) with this, but I don't think health professionals and govt's are issuing warnings for fun, profit, or shytes and giggles....it's just the responsible thing to do given the possibilities with this particular strain being spread by wild birds at the moment.
Public Health Agency of Canada:
http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/influenza/fam_e.html
What I'm asking people to do is spend some time *just thinking* about a plan for themselves. For many of you, being in Korea means being away from your family and support network--being on your own in a foreign country would present more difficulties than being at home.
In the mean time avoid kissing chickens  |
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hermes.trismegistus
Joined: 08 Sep 2005
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| Posted: Wed May 03, 2006 6:56 pm Post subject: |
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| canuckistan wrote: |
| In the interim many things can happen (or not) with this, but I don't think health professionals and govt's are issuing warnings for fun, profit, or shytes and giggles....it's just the responsible thing to do given the possibilities with this particular strain being spread by wild birds at the moment. |
Then you really don't understand the medical community.
The manufacture of imaginary illness has been big business for decades.
Feel free to support all the propaganda you'd like. My background in science lets me review the literature to my satisfaction, and I'm quite confident that most of us have nothing to worry about. I don't see any point in trying to reverse your conditioned acceptance of propaganda.
But when billions start getting spent on paranoid possibilities, then I take issue. It'd be like me saying that I want a trillion dollars to prepare for the possibility that the Hutchin's Effect will cause global cataclysm.
If you want a bug to worry about, look no further than virulent Staph.
Namaste. |
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