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desultude

Joined: 15 Jan 2003 Location: Dangling my toes in the Persian Gulf
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Posted: Sat May 13, 2006 11:03 pm Post subject: |
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sundubuman wrote: |
and......
your response to leading scientists.........
claiming the whole thing is a bunch of baloney..................
is?????????????????????????? |
Let me see, and I am not being pedantic here, "leading scientists"? Whose leading scientists? More or less reknowned than the ones that disagree with them? Are they a group of the "world's leading scientists"? By whose say so?
(I can see it now, in the latest issue of "Atmospheric Science Review" The research team of Woo, Dun and Wat, the worlds leading scientists, found, after years of research and duplicable testing, global warming is baloney.")
Any credible scientist would be a little more measured and circumspect in his or her opinion.
What do you think? Have you rationally evaluated their research? Do you understand and approve of their research methodology? Has it been peer reviewed and published?
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4 Apr 2006 - In an open letter to Canada 's new Conservative prime minister,
Stephen Harper, more than 60 leading international climate change experts have
asked him to review the global warming policies he inherited from his center-left
predecessor.
"Much of the billions of dollars earmarked for implementation of the protocol in
Canada will be squandered without a proper assessment of recent developments in
climate science," they wrote in the Canadian Financial Post last week.
There is no consensus among climate scientists on the relative importance of the
various causes of global climate change, they wrote. Study of global climate
change is an "emerging science."
"'Climate change is real' is a meaningless phrase used repeatedly by activists to
convince the public that a climate catastrophe is looming and humanity is the cause.
Neither of these fears is justified.
"Global climate changes all the time due to natural causes and the human impact
still remains impossible to distinguish from this natural 'noise'." |
Hmmm, not one word about baloney, and furthermore, they are just asking for more research, and saying that the evidence is not in enough to be conclusive.
Furthermore, at least 23 of the names on the list are either "former", "adjunct" or "emeritus". These are not really esteemed cutting edge scientists. Emeritus, in basic English, translates to "old fart", former probably means "once an academic, now doing research in 'the private sector' or for government", and, where I come from, "adjunct" means "unable to get a real academic job, so teaching night classes".
Yes, I am sure in the scientific world, 60 scientists in fields roughly related to atmospheric sciences, such as "agronomy" could be found to dispute most anything.
Present some evidence- of theirs or your own. A list of names claiming something never impressed me. |
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Gopher

Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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Posted: Sun May 14, 2006 11:19 am Post subject: |
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desultude wrote: |
...where I come from, "adjunct" means "unable to get a real academic job, so teaching night classes". |
This is harsh and unfair, not to mention totally out of step with current thinking and trends in universities these days... |
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desultude

Joined: 15 Jan 2003 Location: Dangling my toes in the Persian Gulf
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Posted: Sun May 14, 2006 3:25 pm Post subject: |
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Gopher wrote: |
desultude wrote: |
...where I come from, "adjunct" means "unable to get a real academic job, so teaching night classes". |
This is harsh and unfair, not to mention totally out of step with current thinking and trends in universities these days... |
Yeah, it's a bit heavy handed, but usually "the world's top scientists" aren't adjuncts. I was just trying to make that point.
I think that those of us here who are teaching at unis are basically well-paid adjuncts.
The university teaching system became adjunct-heavy in the last 15 or so years in terms of teaching. But the stars are not adjuncts. |
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Gopher

Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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Posted: Sun May 14, 2006 3:30 pm Post subject: |
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desultude wrote: |
...usually "the world's top scientists" aren't adjuncts. I was just trying to make that point...the stars are not adjuncts. |
That's probably true -- "leading scientists" is too much.
I agree he was overstating his evidence, then, although holding a Ph.D. and having at least some publications and teaching experience under your belt (tenured or not) is sufficient to make them "expert scientists," at least in any court of law. |
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rapier
Joined: 16 Feb 2003
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Posted: Mon May 15, 2006 5:06 am Post subject: |
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The consensus among most scientists is that Global warming is happening, it threatens the future of millions, and it is influenced by human activity.
Global Warming Can Trigger Extreme Ocean, Climate Changes, Scripps-led Study Reveals
January 6, 2006
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/01/060106002509.htm
Global warming threatens health of Millions:
CBS news (16 may 2006)
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/05/15/ap/tech/mainD8HJSMBG1.shtml
kyoto is certainly useless, in that it doesn't go far enough to adress the problem.
Unless you're one of the scientists who believes that nothing we do matters anymore anyhow.probably the most realistic assessment.
Global warming: passing the 'tipping point'
Our special investigation reveals that critical rise in world temperatures is now unavoidable
By Michael McCarthy, Environment Editor
Published: 11 February 2006
A crucial global warming "tipping point" for the Earth, highlighted only last week by the British Government, has already been passed, with devastating consequences.
Research commissioned by The Independent reveals that the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has now crossed a threshold, set down by scientists from around the world at a conference in Britain last year, beyond which really dangerous climate change is likely to be unstoppable.
http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article344690.ece |
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Nowhere Man

Joined: 08 Feb 2004
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Posted: Mon May 15, 2006 6:58 am Post subject: ... |
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It's still beyond me how issues of our emissions and climate change are not also discussed alongside issues such as soil erosion and pollution.
Our impact on the atmosphere is not really thousands of years old.
See: the industrial revolution.
As for leading scientists, it seems about 60-93 based on articles posted here.
Let's agree on this: Climate change is real.
Disclaimer: I didn't say it's caused by humans or that there is a catastrophe looming.
Just that: Climate change is real. |
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Bulsajo

Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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Posted: Mon May 15, 2006 9:31 am Post subject: |
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Quote: |
Let's agree on this: Climate change is real.
Disclaimer: I didn't say it's caused by humans or that there is a catastrophe looming.
Just that: Climate change is real. |
Unfortunately, some people are happy to label it as nothing more than fearmongering and completely ignore it. |
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Tiger Beer

Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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Posted: Mon May 15, 2006 10:00 am Post subject: Re: 'Kyoto' Is Pointless, say phd's |
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sundubuman wrote: |
Kyoto is pointless, say 60 leading scientists |
I thought this would be a list of political scientists.
Regardless if Kyoto is scientifically possible or not.. every nation on earth except the US & a few others signed the thing.. but ZERO wrote the agreements of those laws into their law books. |
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Bulsajo

Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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Posted: Mon May 15, 2006 11:08 am Post subject: |
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That's a good point-
how many of the scientists who are against Kyoto, are against it because of bad science?
And how many are against it because of 'bad politics'?
(I.E. global warming is seen as a problem but Kyoto is not seen as any sort of solution, for a variety of reasons). |
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sundubuman
Joined: 04 Feb 2003 Location: seoul
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Posted: Mon May 15, 2006 11:09 am Post subject: |
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here's an example of the media's open mendacity on the issue
Meltdown fear as Arctic ice cover falls to record winter low
David Adam, environment correspondent
Monday May 15, 2006
The Guardian
Record amounts of the Arctic ocean failed to freeze during the recent winter, new figures show, spelling disaster for wildlife and strengthening concerns that the region is locked into a destructive cycle of irreversible climate change.
Satellite measurements show the area covered by Arctic winter sea ice reached an all-time low in March, down some 300,000 square kilometres on last year -an area bigger than the UK.
Scientists say the decline highlights an alarming new trend, with recovery of the ice in winter no longer sufficient to compensate for increased melting in the summer. If the cycle continues, the Arctic ocean could lose all of its ice much earlier than expected, possibly by 2030.
Walt Meier, a researcher at the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado, which collected the figures, said: "It's a pretty stark drop. In the winter the ice tends to be pretty stable, so the last three years, with this steady decline, really stick out."
Experts are worried because a long-term slow decline of ice around the north pole seems to have sharply accelerated since 2003, raising fears that the region may have passed one of the "tipping points" in global warming. In this scenario, warmer weather melts ice and drives temperatures higher because the dark water beneath absorbs more of the sun's radiation. This could make global warming quickly run out of control.
Dr Meier said there was "a good chance" the Arctic tipping point has been reached. "People have tried to think of ways we could get back to where we were. We keep going further and further into the hole, and it's getting harder and harder to get out of it."
The Arctic is rapidly becoming the clearest demonstration of the effects of mankind's impact on the global climate. The temperature is rising twice as fast as the rest of the planet and the region is expected to warm by a further 4C-7C by 2100. The summer and winter ice levels are the lowest since satellite monitoring began in 1979, and almost certainly the lowest since local people began keeping records around 1900. The pace of decline since 2003, if continued, would see the Arctic totally ice-free in summer within 30 years - though few scientists would stake their reputations on a long-term trend drawn from only three years.
Experts at the US Naval Postgraduate School in California think the situation could be even worse. They are about to publish the results of computer simulations that show the current rate of melting, combined with increased access for warmer Pacific water, could make the summertime Arctic ice-free within a decade. Dr Meier said: "For 800,000 to a million years, at least some of the Arctic has been covered by ice throughout the year. That's an indication that, if we are heading for an ice-free Arctic, it's a really dramatic change and something that is unprecedented almost within the entire record of human species."
The winter ice has declined all around the region - bad news for polar bears, which spend summer on land before returning to the ice in spring to catch food. |
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sundubuman
Joined: 04 Feb 2003 Location: seoul
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Posted: Mon May 15, 2006 11:11 am Post subject: |
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completely disregarding the possibility that it has something to do with natural volcanic cycles.
the guardian makes me sick. what passes for news there is pretty hysterical. |
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sundubuman
Joined: 04 Feb 2003 Location: seoul
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Posted: Mon May 15, 2006 11:14 am Post subject: |
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Figure 7y-6: The following satellite image shows the distribution of Mount Pinatubo's sulfur dioxide and dust aerosol plume (red and yellow areas) between June 14 and July 26, 1991. Approximately 45 days after the eruption, the aerosol plume completely circled the Earth around the equator forming a band 20 to 50� of latitude wide. Areas outside this band were clear of volcanic aerosols. Within a year, the sulfur dioxide continued to migrate towards the North and South Pole until it covered the entire Earth because of the dominant poleward flow of stratospheric winds (stratospheric winds circulate from the equator to the polar vortices at the North and South Poles). These observed patterns of aerosol movement suggest that tropical explosive volcanic eruptions probably have the greatest effect on the Earth's climate. Diffusion of aerosols by stratospheric winds from a tropical source results in the greatest latitudinal coverage of the sulfur dioxide across both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. (Source: SAGE II Satellite Project - NASA). |
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sundubuman
Joined: 04 Feb 2003 Location: seoul
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Posted: Mon May 15, 2006 11:17 am Post subject: |
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and the fact that most of the volcanoes on earth are UNDERWATER and largely UNOBSERVED by even our most advanced technology.....
seems not to bother those with a preconceived conviction of what might be happening on Earth.
how can we spell
H U B R I S |
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rapier
Joined: 16 Feb 2003
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Posted: Mon May 15, 2006 4:56 pm Post subject: |
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sundubuman wrote: |
and the fact that most of the volcanoes on earth are UNDERWATER and largely UNOBSERVED by even our most advanced technology.....
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How long have the volcanoes been there? did they only become active when we discovered them?how about solar flares/ sunspots. They've been happening a very long time, i think you'll agree.
Something that has been going on for millenia cannot now suddenly be causing rapid climate change.
The only new factor we are left with is human activity. 100 years of burning fossil fuels, creating a hole in the ozone layer, aridifying regions with overpopulation and changing the environment. On a global scale. |
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Bulsajo

Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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Posted: Fri May 19, 2006 8:24 am Post subject: |
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N.B. the article does not state (nor even imply) what they believe the cause of the phenomena to be (other than the obvious- high temperatures); Also note the immediate and dramatic commercial/economic and environmental impacts implied in the second to last paragraph.
Quote: |
Scientists note stunning loss of Arctic ice, snow
Last Updated Fri, 19 May 2006 10:51:09 EDT
CBC News
Climatologists studying satellite weather maps say they're amazed and alarmed by how quickly spring is coming to the Arctic this year.
* INDEPTH: Climate change
Record warm temperatures have significantly reduced ice cover in Canada's Arctic waters and snow cover on land.
"I've never seen it so wide open this time of year," said Environment Canada's David Phillips, referring to the body of water between Baffin Island and mainland Quebec. "It's just blue, blue as the bluest sky."
Phillips said snow cover is also fast disappearing across Nunavut. In Cape Dorset, there is typically 50 centimetres of snow on the ground in May. Now there's just two centimetres. And in Iqaluit, bare ground is exposed everywhere, when there would normally still be 20 centimetres of snow cover.
Phillips, a senior climatologist with the federal weather agency, says temperatures were four to five degrees warmer than usual this past winter. The higher temperatures come on the heels of dramatic losses in sea ice last summer, Phillips says, and so the natural cycle hasn't had a chance to recover.
"There has been no rebounding back," he said. "The ice just hasn't had a chance to bounce back, to grow during the winter, during the cold season of the year.
"Essentially what's happening is there's been so much warm weather, week after week, month after month, season after season, the environment is just not behaving the way it should," said Phillips.
Ice cover has now dropped to a record low for the winter period, attracting the attention of Mark Serreze, a senior research scientist with the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo.
Serreze said April is generally the month with the maximum ice cover over the Arctic Ocean, and the loss this year is shocking.
"If we compare this April with all previous Aprils, there's hundreds of thousands of square kilometres less ice," he said.
Climatologists, biologists and people living in the area fear the shifting ice patterns are a sign of even deeper changes that will disrupt age-old cycles of plant and animal life, and even global weather patterns.
Serreze says researchers will be watching ice cover data carefully this summer, and many are already predicting the shrinkage in September will largely surpass last year's record high.
Serreze says sea ice loss has been the greatest along the coasts of Siberia and Alaska. This winter a ship could have travelled northeast from London along Russia's Arctic Ocean coastline and down through the Bering Strait between Siberia and Alaska to Tokyo, he says.
Meanwhile, Phillips says people in Nunavut and the Northwest Territories can expect the balmy weather to continue through the summer. |
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