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Hater Depot
Joined: 29 Mar 2005
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 Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2006 4:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Who else ever hit 50 homers and pitched 3 innings of (scoreless) relief? He also set the record for consecutive shutout innings in the World Series. |
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sjrm
Joined: 27 Jul 2005
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| Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2006 5:21 am Post subject: |
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[quote="huffdaddy"][quote]
I don't have his clutch stats in front of me, but people usually have a misguided memory of a player's "clutch" performance. And to me, it's overrated. If you get on base and hit for power, you help your team win. Piazza did that like no other catcher in baseball. [quote="huffdaddy"]
it's called batting average with runners in scoring position.
I don't consider one data point to be relevant. Noone always comes through in "the clutch". I've yet to see any statistical evidence that "clutch" ability exists.
i'm not saying that some people always come through in the clutch. just some more than others.
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There is one way to win baseball games. Outscore your opponent. There are things that prevent the other team from scoring, and things that help your team to score. Neither one is necessarily more valuable than the other. Piazza contributed way more runs offensively than he gave up on defense. That's what wins games. |
and having a catcher who can block the plate and prevent runs isn't an asset?
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I'm not even going to bother to find catching ERAs. Too many variables to control for. But I reckon that this is a very insignificant factor used to justify bad hitting catchers' existence. Do you believe that umpires are actually swayed by the set up? And how many runs over the course of a season do you think this is worth? |
yes, they do, in the same way that some pitchers get calls that others don't.
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| or not being able to catch guys stealing is not a problem. |
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SB/CS
Piazza - 1340/415 in 1565 games. 23% caught, and .85 SB/game.
Lo Duca - 470/226 in 714 games. 32% caught, and .65 SB/game.
No doubt, Piazza has the worse stats. But the difference is about 32 SB / 162 game season. Which works out to, IIRC, about 10 runs, or roughly one game. Let's make it easier and blame Piazza for all of this. I'd have to say that giving back one game a year on defense is worth his offense.
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those same 10 runs could also mean the difference in about 3, 4, or even 5 games. that's a big difference in a close divisional race.
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| or not being able to block the plate properly, etc. having a good defensive catcher isn't exactly anything you'd like to go without. and again, what good are putting up big numbers if it doens't do the team any good? |
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It creates runs. Runs win games. It's helping the team a lot. Just because you don't notice it doesn't mean it isn't helping. |
so hitting a home run when you're already leading 10-1 in the 9th really matters that much?
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Well, 15 homers is a decent output from the catching slot. Something Lo Duca surpassed only once in his career. Meanwhile, Piaaza was hitting 30-40 for nine seasons. |
again, most of the time, those home runs are meaningless. lo duca seems to find a way to get on base, and help create runs.
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Noone in the history of baseball has been able to "get on base when the team needs baserunners, and get hits when the team needs a hit to tie the score or take the lead." You think players can decide when to get on base and when not to? Who knows whether or not that run in the first inning is valuable or not? You win games by scoring more runs than your opponent. Be it in the first inning or the ninth inning. |
i'm not saying that a run scored in the first inning isn't just as important as the run scored in the ninth.and you're telling me that babe ruth was no different than joe shmoe, and that batting average is only luck, rather than skill?
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Well, many Dodgers fans are wrong. I guess that's what happens when you don't show up to games until the 3rd inning and leave in the 7th. |
it is true that there are quite a few fans that do that. me not being one of them. every game i've been to, and every game i've watched on tv, i've seen the whole way through. |
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huffdaddy
Joined: 25 Nov 2005
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| Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2006 4:14 pm Post subject: |
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You haven't read Bill James, have you? Or the Baseball Prospectus? Basically, I (and a growing number of baseball fans) prefer to evaluate players analytically. And the great thing about baseball, is that they have numbers for just about every possible facet of the game. Some are nearly meaningless (BA, E, GWRBI), while some are quite valuable (OBP, SLG). But if you know how to use these numbers, you can learn a lot. Like don't trust your eyes and mind and conventional wisdom. Over the long haul, and that's really what baseball is all about, the long haul, a quantitative approach is the only true and unbiased judge.
| sjrm wrote: |
i'm not saying that some people always come through in the clutch. just some more than others. |
1. Show me evidence that some people come through in the clutch more often than others. The evidence I've seen shows that almost everyone's "clutch" statistics are a random variation around their normal hitting ability (minus a bit, since these situations are often against fresh relief pitchers and closers). Read this.
2. Show me that Piazza is "unclutch." The numbers are out there, I'm just not going to look for them since I don't believe they will be meaningful.
3. Finally, calculate how many runs per season / games it costs his team. I can give you the value of his added offense. Let's see the same for his failings.
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There is one way to win baseball games. Outscore your opponent. There are things that prevent the other team from scoring, and things that help your team to score. Neither one is necessarily more valuable than the other. Piazza contributed way more runs offensively than he gave up on defense. That's what wins games. |
and having a catcher who can block the plate and prevent runs isn't an asset? |
When did I say that? Read above. Sure, preventing runs is an asset, but I'm not going to take a guy who saves me 5 runs on defense over a guy who gives me 10 runs on offense (ceteris paribus). There's always the a trade off between good offense or good defense. A run saved is as valuable as a run created, but not more so.
Again, show me how bad Piazza was at blocking the plate. I already showed that he costs his team an extra passed ball a season. Yes, 1 whole passed ball a season. How much did this cost his team? Not a whole lot. Show me statistical evidence otherwise.
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I'm not even going to bother to find catching ERAs. Too many variables to control for. But I reckon that this is a very insignificant factor used to justify bad hitting catchers' existence. Do you believe that umpires are actually swayed by the set up? And how many runs over the course of a season do you think this is worth? |
yes, they do, in the same way that some pitchers get calls that others don't. |
Ok, fine. Then show me the effects of his bad catching skills. This will surely be reflected in something like ERAs while catching. Right? Granted, you'll probably have a hard time finding any meaningful numbers (things like sample size will kill you). Just because some announcer has to justify a bad-hitting catcher's existence doesn't mean it's a real quality.
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SB/CS
Piazza - 1340/415 in 1565 games. 23% caught, and .85 SB/game.
Lo Duca - 470/226 in 714 games. 32% caught, and .65 SB/game.
No doubt, Piazza has the worse stats. But the difference is about 32 SB / 162 game season. Which works out to, IIRC, about 10 runs, or roughly one game. Let's make it easier and blame Piazza for all of this. I'd have to say that giving back one game a year on defense is worth his offense.
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those same 10 runs could also mean the difference in about 3, 4, or even 5 games. that's a big difference in a close divisional race. |
Um, no. 10 runs (depending on era and ballpark) are worth about 1 game. You can't pick and choose when those 10 runs are applied and make them more valuable.
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so hitting a home run when you're already leading 10-1 in the 9th really matters that much? |
Not, it doesn't matter much. But everyone is going to have his share of "meaningless" home runs. Show me evidence that Piazza did that more often than others. Heck, show evidence that Piazza ever hit a home run while leading 10-1 in the 9th.
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Well, 15 homers is a decent output from the catching slot. Something Lo Duca surpassed only once in his career. Meanwhile, Piaaza was hitting 30-40 for nine seasons. |
again, most of the time, those home runs are meaningless. lo duca seems to find a way to get on base, and help create runs. |
Evidence?
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Noone in the history of baseball has been able to "get on base when the team needs baserunners, and get hits when the team needs a hit to tie the score or take the lead." You think players can decide when to get on base and when not to? Who knows whether or not that run in the first inning is valuable or not? You win games by scoring more runs than your opponent. Be it in the first inning or the ninth inning. |
i'm not saying that a run scored in the first inning isn't just as important as the run scored in the ninth.and you're telling me that babe ruth was no different than joe shmoe, and that batting average is only luck, rather than skill? |
Huh? Where do you read that? Players have a skill which they use to the best of their abilities at all times. The outcome, walks, hits, and outs are based upon that ability plus normal statistical variation. Over the course of a season/career those variations are mitigated, and their true ability comes forth. To look at a slice of these statistics (batting average in the 9th inning, batting average on Tuesdays, batting average with Bill Murray in the stadium) can be interesting, but is usually a meaningless statistical variation. Let me emphasize, sample size sample size sample size.
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Well, many Dodgers fans are wrong. I guess that's what happens when you don't show up to games until the 3rd inning and leave in the 7th. |
it is true that there are quite a few fans that do that. me not being one of them. every game i've been to, and every game i've watched on tv, i've seen the whole way through. |
Ok, but even if you've seen every inning of every game, your memory is not going to be able to store and process all that information. Certain things will stand out more than others. Show me evidence that your memories are real and not just tricks of perception. |
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huffdaddy
Joined: 25 Nov 2005
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| Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2006 6:26 pm Post subject: |
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FWIW, Here are some stats I found:
Piazza's career splits.
BA/OBP/SLG (all numbers are for his career)
with noone on base: 306/365/547
with RISP: 304/408/534
innings 1-6: 315/381/558
innings 7+: 299/381/543
Those numbers don't look "unclutch" to me.
And about his game calling, getting calls, whatever it is that is supposed to be soooo important, take a look at this.
CERA (cather's ERA) stats versus overall team ERA (only for his complete Dodger seasons):
........Piazza...Team
1993...3.44.....3.50
1994...3.97.....4.23
1995...3.68.....3.66
1996...3.31.....3.48
1997...3.50.....3.63
Hmm, looks like his pitchers perform better with him behind the plate.
So in short: You can have the best offensive catcher in the history of the game, but the other team will steal a few more bases against you. Or you can have anyone else who ever played catcher. How many guys would you even consider taking instead of Piazza. I think a list of 5 would be too many. |
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