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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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 Posted: Tue Jul 04, 2006 9:55 pm Post subject: |
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If the US stopped its handouts, then China would have to sort them out. A far better option.
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The 6 Party talks are on hold because the US punished the North for counterfeiting money (and selling dope?). Is the US still sending food? Even if they stopped the food aid, KJI would just allow more to starve to death. He did it just a couple of years ago. I guess I'm not clear on what handouts you are refering to.
A week or so ago it was reported that both China and Russia told KJI not to test the missile. It doesn't appear that that worked. (Or they lied to the media about what they told the North.)
China could stop its aid (food and fuel) but that could very likely topple the regime and cause chaos in Chinese border territories. It could provoke a Chinese occupation of the North to keep the peace. Not a desirable outcome.
It looks like China is too weak, too irresolute or has other goals in mind. |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Tue Jul 04, 2006 10:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
China could stop its aid (food and fuel) but that could very likely topple the regime and cause chaos in Chinese border territories. It could provoke a Chinese occupation of the North to keep the peace. Not a desirable outcome.
It looks like China is too weak, too irresolute or has other goals in mind. |
Clearly a mildly crazy North Korea works for the Chinese. If not, they'd have settled it long ago. I think it works a bit like this: A crazy North with China being the solution to the problem keeps China's profile high in the region. It requires the Japanese, Americans, and South Koreans to all kowtow to some degree to get favors out of China. If the North Korean problem went away tomorrow, China's usefulness in East Asia would somewhat lessened. Indeed, a North Korea has always been used by South Korea's economic rivals as a cap on South Korean growth. The Japanese would funnel secret support to the North back in the late '80s when Korean cars and electronics began to compete with Japan. A South Korea with a large % of its GDP tied down by a military works for Japan and now economic rival China. |
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Junior
Joined: 18 Nov 2005
Location: the eye
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| Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2006 1:03 am Post subject: |
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| mindmetoo wrote: |
Clearly a mildly crazy North Korea works for the Chinese. If not, they'd Indeed, a North Korea has always been used by South Korea's economic rivals as a cap on South Korean growth. The Japanese would funnel secret support to the North back in the late '80s when Korean cars and electronics began to compete with Japan. A South Korea with a large % of its GDP tied down by a military works for Japan and now economic rival China. |
Good point.
Also, A unified korea would open a transport rout into China and thus boost koreas growth. ("hub of asia?  ). Korea would become China's Singapore. At present, the furthest any cargo offloaded at Incheon can travel is Pamunjeom. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2006 1:38 am Post subject: |
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I suppose North Korea wanted to join the United States in making July 4th noteworthy. In the DPRK, July 4th can henceforth be known as the day of the Demonstration of Incompetence.
There are two things that occur to me at this point. Firstly, KJI's foreign policy initiatives make the Bush administration look savvy by comparison. No mean feat, that. Secondly, I am so glad that it is an Axis of Evil that is behaving with such idiotic disregard for their own interests. Now, hopefully, Iran's leaders can respond with all the reason and sobriety the North Korean leadership seems to lack and sign onto Bush's offer and possibly avert war. |
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On the other hand
Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue
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| Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2006 1:56 am Post subject: |
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| I suppose North Korea wanted to join the United States in making July 4th noteworthy. |
Gotta have that rocket's red glare, those bombs bursting in air. |
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Leslie Cheswyck
Joined: 31 May 2003
Location: University of Western Chile
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| Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2006 1:56 am Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
... henceforth be known as the day of the Demonstration of Incompetence.
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Kuros, the damned thing stayed up for only 35 seconds. Surely, you were thinking of some other word, right? |
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Junior
Joined: 18 Nov 2005
Location: the eye
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| Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2006 2:11 am Post subject: |
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The White House
July 4th
Dear Glorious Great Leader,
Thankyou so much for your goodwill gesture celebrating our nations independence on the 4th. Fireworks would've been acceptable, but your launching of rockets blew me away. I was overwhelmed at your joining in the spirit of our national day.
Next time, you might find it less costly to import some fireworks from China? I hear they are quite failsafe too.
Looking forward to developing the explosion of friendship you have sparked.
Affection,
GEORGE BUSH |
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NAVFC
Joined: 10 May 2006
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| Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2006 12:57 pm Post subject: hmm.. |
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| maybe its high time the US and SK militaries ended the NK problem, otherwise NK will do this forever |
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jinju
Joined: 22 Jan 2006
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| Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2006 4:26 pm Post subject: |
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North Koreans are insane. Chinese aid? Check THIS out
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/korea/articles/20060705.aspx
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| North Korean officials engage in even more bizarre behavior. For example, food and fuel supplies sent to North Korea have been halted, not to force North Korea to stop missile tests or participate in peace talks, but to return the Chinese trains the aid was carried in on. In the last few weeks, the North Koreans have just kept the trains, sending the Chinese crews back across the border. North Korea just ignores Chinese demands that the trains be returned, and insists that the trains are part of the aid program. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2006 6:33 pm Post subject: |
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As the United States formulates its response to North Korea's missile tests, Robert Siegel talks with Ashton Carter, Professor of Science and International Affairs at Harvard University and co-director of the Harvard Stanford Preventive Defense Project.
Carter served as assistant secretary of defense for International Security policy during the Clinton administration and recently co-wrote an op-ed arguing that the United States should preempt a strike. |
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5536139 |
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Junior
Joined: 18 Nov 2005
Location: the eye
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| Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2006 6:44 pm Post subject: |
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| jinju wrote: |
| North Korea just ignores Chinese demands that the trains be returned, and insists that the trains are part of the aid program. |
China should be doing more to sort them out. But no, they are against sanctions. Placating of the madman holding a grenade continues.
At this rate Nk is going to be dictating to the rest of the world pretty soon. |
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Summer Wine
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Location: Next to a River
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| Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2006 7:10 pm Post subject: |
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Clearly a mildly crazy North Korea works for the Chinese. If not, they'd have settled it long ago. I think it works a bit like this: A crazy North with China being the solution to the problem keeps China's profile high in the region. It requires the Japanese, Americans, and South Koreans to all kowtow to some degree to get favors out of China. If the North Korean problem went away tomorrow, China's usefulness in East Asia would somewhat lessened. Indeed, a North Korea has always been used by South Korea's economic rivals as a cap on South Korean growth. The Japanese would funnel secret support to the North back in the late '80s when Korean cars and electronics began to compete with Japan. A South Korea with a large % of its GDP tied down by a military works for Japan and now economic rival China.
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It was a good point.
China is in the process of building relations in the asia region, some aimed at re-establishing client state relations with good access to open seas, economic resources etc.
A collapse of NK would result either in South Korea having a physical border with China and subsequently having US forces bordered on China's border and making Beijing an even closer potential target than it already is if conflict was to occur in the future between the US and China.
Or at the very least with the removal of US forces from SK and South Korea remaining under the umbrella of US influence, an area of concern for China.
Or secondly, China having to take over NK to prevent anarchy in its region and thus putting itself at odds with SK whose long term goal is reunification with the North.
China's takeover of NK would at the very least make SK angry thus making them unwilling to quietly acede to China's future desire for influence over the North East Asia region.
This would also continue to provide a reason for buttressing a supply route for military forces from the US through Japan and up to the SK/NK border that currently exists.
Either way it is not in China's long term interests to see North Korea collapse or at least not while the US can continue to influence the region.
Nor is it in its interests to have NK start a war (intentionally or otherwise) that could put China in a dangerous position. China is in a delicate position to say the least.
They will be thinking very hard on this regardless of what they say publically. |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2006 10:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Summer Wine wrote: |
A collapse of NK would result either in South Korea having a physical border with China and subsequently having US forces bordered on China's border and making Beijing an even closer potential target than it already is if conflict was to occur in the future between the US and China.
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Now that I think of it, you raise a rather interesting side point that the "get the US troops out of Korea" types don't even consider. If North Korea fell into anarchy and there were no US troops in South Korea, China would clearly not think twice about moving in. Haven't the Chinese proven beyond a shadow of a doubt North Korea was actually once an ancient Chinese kingdom? Why it would only be natural for China to protect its own...
Could puny little South Korea, erstwhile ally of the USA, stop them? |
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Junior
Joined: 18 Nov 2005
Location: the eye
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| Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 1:22 am Post subject: |
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| mindmetoo wrote: |
Could puny little South Korea, erstwhile ally of the USA, stop them? |
Anxiety over the tests is grwing in SK. These missle launched have proved a bigger diplomatic problem than i at first thought- now they're threatening to fire more of them this week (another 3 today-thursday).
it has the potential to get out of hand real quick. |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:30 am Post subject: |
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| Since even China was against the tests and they still did it, can we assume that there was some sort of threat to KJI's leadership in the country, that he was being branded as too weak and that he decided he needed a good bit of defiance to keep people impressed with his leadership? If you read backwards into this test it might show that there's a bit of dissent over there that he has to keep in check. Since they're not making any demands along with these tests that's what I assume the reason for them was. |
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