Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Yaya]

It'll be interesting how the coup in Thailand will affect foreign perceptions and travel to the Land of Smiles. Anyone care to throw in their two bits?

[jinju]

How big is the coup's engine? I prefer convertibles anyway.

[djsmnc]

[Peter Jackson]

I will think twice about visiting until it is settled. Will be hard because I love that country.

A friend of mine who teaches there told me he is scared it could turn violent. All schools, banks, etc are closed today. Do you think it it affect the value of the baht in a huge way?

[The Cube]

..

[Yaya]

Interesting editorial on the coup:

Southeast Asia: Thailand's military coup wasn't a complete surprise, given its recent political turmoil. But this U.S. ally also faces an Islamist insurgency. It must stabilize, quickly, because the potential for trouble is high.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted in Thailand's 20th coup since 1932, has been a staunch supporter of the U.S. in the war on terror. His country also is an important trading partner, with $24 billion in two-way commerce with the U.S. in 2004. He's business-friendly and right now is negotiating a free trade pact with the U.S., something that's likely to beef up Thailand's 4% annual economic growth.

Losing him to unknown military leaders in a nondemocratic coup is not good news. But neither is the parlous state of Thailand's democracy.

Thaksin was the author of most of his political troubles. In his six years in power, he's cracked down on the press, and temporarily suspended civil liberties in an effort to fight the war on drugs.

He also shifted Thai military men around, rendering them ineffective in halting a Muslim insurgency in the south -- which got worse.

When he was accused of corruption over the $1.9 billion sale of his Shin Satellite company, his inability to defuse the crisis triggered vast protests that disrupted the Bangkok area earlier this year.

He was re-elected premier by a 56% margin in April, but his outraged opposition stayed home and protested more. The King asked a court to rule on the election's validity, and the court nullified it.

Thaksin agreed to resign only on the condition that he remain caretaker prime minister until new elections in October, a very weak political position for any leader, and fertile ground for ambitious generals.

Amid rumors of a coup, Thaksin's been traveling to odd places, like the anti-American nonaligned conference in Havana, onward to Cancun, supposedly to learn about tourism, and then to New York for the U.N. General Assembly.

By character, Thaksin is a stubborn tycoon who often oversteps his power. So his ouster, led by a general he fired this week, leaves many worried he's unlikely to go out quietly.

In the haze of coup rumors, there's now some talk of Thaksin's military supporters regrouping outside Bangkok, a rumor that raises the specter of wider violence and instability.

Meanwhile, Thailand's universally revered King Bhumibol IX, who will likely resolve this debacle, is 79, and appears to be in frail health. His son is not believed to have his same referent power, so even if Tuesday's military coup d'etat is resolved by the current king, and democracy returns to Thailand, the potential for future instability is high if the future king cannot mediate as his father.

What's most disturbing now is that Thailand has real troublemakers, whose perspective is not just local, and who are closely watching this.

This past weekend, Islamofascist terrorists, possibly emboldened by the shaky political situation in Bangkok, unleashed a new offensive in the town of Hat Yai in Thailand's south, setting off a string of bombings that killed four people and injured 80.

The offensive signaled a heightened level in the war on terror not only because it was bigger than previous attacks but because it was outside Thailand's three-province region where most earlier terror attacks have occurred. And for the first time, it killed a Westerner -- a Canadian teacher in a tourist area.

Thai observers said that terrorists seemed to be targeting Thailand's economy, taking advantage of Bangkok's political power void in their bid to expand their operating area and influence.

Thailand's potential military rulers, like Gen. Sondhi, (who unexpectedly is a Muslim), vow to make pacification of the south their principle priority.

If they can fill Thailand's political power void with enough military force to bring peace to the south, well and good. But history suggests that force over democracy is an unstable reed, and there is the danger that the Islamofascists may grow bolder still.

Thailand needs normalcy quickly because it must marginalize these Islamofascist terrorists. If they gain, Thailand will lose more than its democracy.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ibd/20060919/bs_ibd_ibd/2006919issues01