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NAVFC
Joined: 10 May 2006
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 Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 3:58 pm Post subject: Re: If NK Tests a Nuke, What Do You Think Will Happen? |
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| Manner of Speaking wrote: |
If North Korea does try to test a nuke, what do you think will happen? I can see a number of possibilities:
1. NK attempts a belowground test, but something goes wrong and NK ends up with a major environmental disaster.
2. NK attempts a test, is successful, but the UN imposes further sanctions. Putting them right back where they started.
3. NK attempts a test, provoking a military response by the US or Japan, and Pyongyang responds with a limited artillery strike on Seoul.
Man...I really don't like the looks of this. I think KJI is a genius at strategy - he's had his whole life to work on it - but the missile test shows that he's capable of making mistakes. BIG mistakes. The US and Japan obviously didn't respond the way NK expected, and they've placed themselves in a worse situation, strategically speaking, then they were before the missile test. A nuke test would just be another blackmail attempt. And what if AGAIN, the US and Japan just (militarily) shrug it off?
They must be awfully desperate up there.  |
I dont know what the world will do, but if NK does this, I believe it is time to end this once and for all.
Let's liberate the poor souls in North Korea's cooncentration camps, lets release the stranglehold KimJongIl has on them, let's pull back the cover of censorship and expose them to the outside world.
In my opinion, If NK does this, we should launch a allied invasion of North Korea and liberate them from communist rule. |
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Manner of Speaking
Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 8:16 pm Post subject: Re: If NK Tests a Nuke, What Do You Think Will Happen? |
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| NAVFC wrote: |
| Manner of Speaking wrote: |
If North Korea does try to test a nuke, what do you think will happen? I can see a number of possibilities:
1. NK attempts a belowground test, but something goes wrong and NK ends up with a major environmental disaster.
2. NK attempts a test, is successful, but the UN imposes further sanctions. Putting them right back where they started.
3. NK attempts a test, provoking a military response by the US or Japan, and Pyongyang responds with a limited artillery strike on Seoul.
Man...I really don't like the looks of this. I think KJI is a genius at strategy - he's had his whole life to work on it - but the missile test shows that he's capable of making mistakes. BIG mistakes. The US and Japan obviously didn't respond the way NK expected, and they've placed themselves in a worse situation, strategically speaking, then they were before the missile test. A nuke test would just be another blackmail attempt. And what if AGAIN, the US and Japan just (militarily) shrug it off?
They must be awfully desperate up there. |
I dont know what the world will do, but if NK does this, I believe it is time to end this once and for all.
Let's liberate the poor souls in North Korea's cooncentration camps, lets release the stranglehold KimJongIl has on them, let's pull back the cover of censorship and expose them to the outside world.
In my opinion, If NK does this, we should launch a allied invasion of North Korea and liberate them from communist rule. |
Theoretically, that would be great in a perfect world, but realistically...
a)no nation realistically has the capacity to do that right now, and I would argue not even the US has that capacity at present. With a few years planning they might be in a position to launch a successful invasion, but NK has had over 50 years to plan for such an event.
b) Any buildup of US or even NATO forces in preparation for an invasion would be promptly detected by KN intelligence agencies. After the invasion of Iraq in 2003, a NK general was heard to say, "If you attack us, you won't get to have a buildup. You won't get six months to prepare for a set-piece war. We won't give you the opportunity."
c) NK can and will probably ensure that the cost of any attack by the South will be far greater than any benefits that might ensue. It's in their mindset: "If we don't survive, you don't survive." They'll make sure that every major city north of Cheju Island is struck with something. We know about nukes and ICBMS; who knows what else they have cooked up up there? They probably also have a substantial stockpile of chemical, radiological and biological weapons that they could unleash on any southern city. Given their mindset and morality, they would have no hesitation about either producing or using these kinds of weapons. Millions would die.
d) No way China would tolerate an invasion from the south. It probably wouldn't escalate into nuclear war between China and the US, but they'd make sure it was a low-level stalemate that would drag on for years. Another Vietnam at ten times the cost. |
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NAVFC
Joined: 10 May 2006
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| Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 11:01 am Post subject: Re: If NK Tests a Nuke, What Do You Think Will Happen? |
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| Manner of Speaking wrote: |
| NAVFC wrote: |
| Manner of Speaking wrote: |
If North Korea does try to test a nuke, what do you think will happen? I can see a number of possibilities:
1. NK attempts a belowground test, but something goes wrong and NK ends up with a major environmental disaster.
2. NK attempts a test, is successful, but the UN imposes further sanctions. Putting them right back where they started.
3. NK attempts a test, provoking a military response by the US or Japan, and Pyongyang responds with a limited artillery strike on Seoul.
Man...I really don't like the looks of this. I think KJI is a genius at strategy - he's had his whole life to work on it - but the missile test shows that he's capable of making mistakes. BIG mistakes. The US and Japan obviously didn't respond the way NK expected, and they've placed themselves in a worse situation, strategically speaking, then they were before the missile test. A nuke test would just be another blackmail attempt. And what if AGAIN, the US and Japan just (militarily) shrug it off?
They must be awfully desperate up there. |
I dont know what the world will do, but if NK does this, I believe it is time to end this once and for all.
Let's liberate the poor souls in North Korea's cooncentration camps, lets release the stranglehold KimJongIl has on them, let's pull back the cover of censorship and expose them to the outside world.
In my opinion, If NK does this, we should launch a allied invasion of North Korea and liberate them from communist rule. |
Theoretically, that would be great in a perfect world, but realistically...
a)no nation realistically has the capacity to do that right now, and I would argue not even the US has that capacity at present. With a few years planning they might be in a position to launch a successful invasion, but NK has had over 50 years to plan for such an event.
b) Any buildup of US or even NATO forces in preparation for an invasion would be promptly detected by KN intelligence agencies. After the invasion of Iraq in 2003, a NK general was heard to say, "If you attack us, you won't get to have a buildup. You won't get six months to prepare for a set-piece war. We won't give you the opportunity."
c) NK can and will probably ensure that the cost of any attack by the South will be far greater than any benefits that might ensue. It's in their mindset: "If we don't survive, you don't survive." They'll make sure that every major city north of Cheju Island is struck with something. We know about nukes and ICBMS; who knows what else they have cooked up up there? They probably also have a substantial stockpile of chemical, radiological and biological weapons that they could unleash on any southern city. Given their mindset and morality, they would have no hesitation about either producing or using these kinds of weapons. Millions would die.
d) No way China would tolerate an invasion from the south. It probably wouldn't escalate into nuclear war between China and the US, but they'd make sure it was a low-level stalemate that would drag on for years. Another Vietnam at ten times the cost. |
Oh please. NK is not a super power, there military is mostly hollow. First and foremost, they get little or no training now adays. IE:
NK Airforce pilots get maybe an hour a year a piece in experience because of jet fuel costs, US pilots get thousands of hours a year.
There are NK army units that havent as much driven a truck across a street in years because of fuel costs, same thing with ammunition etc etc.
There not really experienced or trained.
And the 50 year long war mentality NK has been on only serves to develop complacency among its troops.
We wouldnt need to build up. Remember Inchon? No build up there. Our air power could easily clear an area for us to land troops at.
We would be able to decimate the NK airforce and Navy right at the start of hostilities. The NK army could probably be defeated in a quick month or two.
I dont think CHina would mind as having NK causing all this trouble isnt in their interest.
Also NK hasnt been able to mount a Nuke on a missile yet. The only thing NK can do is shell Seoul with artillery, the minor NK missiles would be taken out by Patriot batteries for the most part. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 2:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| d) No way China would tolerate an invasion from the south. It probably wouldn't escalate into nuclear war between China and the US, but they'd make sure it was a low-level stalemate that would drag on for years. Another Vietnam at ten times the cost. |
I agree that that is a likely outcome should the US try to invade from the South.
Some questions that have not been addressed:
a) Whose side would South Korea be on?
It is not at all likely the present administration--in office until early '08-- would either join in an attack or allow one to take place from her territory.
In that case, would she/could she stand by while the US attacked from Japanese territory?
b) In the event of a nuclear test by the Norks, what would the Chinese reaction be?
One possible reaction could be an invasion from China. After all, all of North Korea was once a part of China (see the Northeast Project). Large numbers of troops are permanently stationed on the border now. A quick friendly invasion to support a coup... Offer to turn NK over to the South in return for the neutralization of the whole peninsula and the removal of 'all' foreign troops.
c) Could Japan be restrained from going nuclear? What promises would have to be made to keep her non-nuclear and what would the consequences be for failing to keep her non-nuclear? |
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NAVFC
Joined: 10 May 2006
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| Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 4:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| Quote: |
| d) No way China would tolerate an invasion from the south. It probably wouldn't escalate into nuclear war between China and the US, but they'd make sure it was a low-level stalemate that would drag on for years. Another Vietnam at ten times the cost. |
I agree that that is a likely outcome should the US try to invade from the South.
Some questions that have not been addressed:
a) Whose side would South Korea be on?
It is not at all likely the present administration--in office until early '08-- would either join in an attack or allow one to take place from her territory.
In that case, would she/could she stand by while the US attacked from Japanese territory?
b) In the event of a nuclear test by the Norks, what would the Chinese reaction be?
One possible reaction could be an invasion from China. After all, all of North Korea was once a part of China (see the Northeast Project). Large numbers of troops are permanently stationed on the border now. A quick friendly invasion to support a coup... Offer to turn NK over to the South in return for the neutralization of the whole peninsula and the removal of 'all' foreign troops.
c) Could Japan be restrained from going nuclear? What promises would have to be made to keep her non-nuclear and what would the consequences be for failing to keep her non-nuclear? |
I dont think either nation would mind a US invasion at that point. China and SK have already both mentioned if the North Koreans set off a atom bomb, that there will be major policy shifts, Roh Myu hun hinting at abandoning the sunshine policy all together.
A china for the first time warned of dire consquences should NK do it. Also I doubt CHina will invade the NKs, as that will spark a war between ROK and China as the ROK will see it as a occupation of Korean territory.
Best plan would be a ALLIED (not just the US) invasion of North Korea and a UN-sponsored occupation until the nation can be rebuilt and deprogrammed of the Kimist propoganda. |
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ahopfe
Joined: 02 Apr 2005
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| Posted: Sat Oct 07, 2006 1:47 am Post subject: |
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I honestly dont know what I would do if they go ahead and set off the Bomb as they are reportly wanting to do
I Dont think many Nations are really in a position to Invade NK , but with the fall out from the bomb who knows what could happen.
The US could possibly lead a coalition against NK but seriously it would probably take moving all the personnel in SK and Japan into position.
Doing this would leave Japan Wide open.
I honestly dont think that they will set it off anytime soon. They are reportly meant to set it off this weekend.
KJI really is just too hard to read. They could be just using it to try and get Washington to Bilateral talks .
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ChuckECheese
Joined: 20 Jul 2006
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| Posted: Sat Oct 07, 2006 2:08 am Post subject: |
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Nothing will happen.
All the neighboring countries will also go nuclear. When this happens, maybe we'll finally have peace in this region because no one will dare mess with others.
Maybe it wouldn't be bad idea. |
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laconic2
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Wonderful World of ESL
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| Posted: Sat Oct 07, 2006 2:17 am Post subject: Re: If NK Tests a Nuke, What Do You Think Will Happen? |
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For the period of 2004-2005, Japan was ranked fourth or fifth of all nations in the world in terms of annual military expenditures.
How would this produce a "limited capability?"
The JSDF would be a major league player in any military conflict involving North Korea. Anyone who doesn't understand this has little or no insight into Japanese thinking, history, emotions or the capabilities of a military force that is probably second to none when it comes to technological applications for modern day warfare. |
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ChuckECheese
Joined: 20 Jul 2006
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| Posted: Sat Oct 07, 2006 2:36 am Post subject: Re: If NK Tests a Nuke, What Do You Think Will Happen? |
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| laconic2 wrote: |
For the period of 2004-2005, Japan was ranked fourth or fifth of all nations in the world in terms of annual military expenditures.
How would this produce a "limited capability?"
The JSDF would be a major league player in any military conflict involving North Korea. Anyone who doesn't understand this has little or no insight into Japanese thinking, history, emotions or the capabilities of a military force that is probably second to none when it comes to technological applications for modern day warfare. |
This is why everyone in this region need to go nuclear. Few nukes here and there would allow the governments to spend less on defense. Who needs mililary when you have nukes? |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sat Oct 07, 2006 4:02 am Post subject: |
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| I dont think either nation would mind a US invasion at that point. |
I think you should read a history of Chinese involvement in the last war in this area...the one where the Chinese said they couldn't accept an American force above the 38th Parallel. Someone said something like "Times change but national interests don't." |
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miguel
Joined: 05 Sep 2006
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| Posted: Sat Oct 07, 2006 5:15 am Post subject: |
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Everyone should check out Fred Kaplan's analysis of this situation on slate.com. http://www.slate.com/id/2151039/
Do any of you actually think that the US has the ability invade the North? They have just over 30,000 troops in SK, and most of those are not actually infantry. The NK army may be underfunded, underfed, and undertrained, but there are still a million of them. And there are hundreds of NK artillery pieces within 50 miles of Seoul. Cost/benefit of an invasion is not worth it. Not to mention they would probably need some sort of UN resolution and the Chinese could veto anything.
The Chinese may be sick of having to protect NK, but any American invasion would send millions of refugees to the Chinese border and China doesn't need or want that.
Plus, it really hurts China's stature in the region if they give up on the one state that truly depends on them. It sends a bad message to any future allies. China has true regional hegemon ambitions and letting the US invade a close ally does not square with that image.
That said, who knows when this will actually happen. All hte NK said was that they would perform a nuclear test in the future. There's no actual evidence they have nuclear weapons. Enriching nuclear material to a weaponizable point is difficult, and then actually turning it into a weapon is even more difficult. Everything is hearsay. If they do test it is only to demonstrate that they have nuclear weapons. They will then try to get some more concessions from the Americans, probably a non-aggression pact, in exchange for dismantling their nuclear program. |
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brento1138
Joined: 17 Nov 2004
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| Posted: Sat Oct 07, 2006 11:02 pm Post subject: |
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| If the US gets to choose between a Seoul-crater-hole or a New-York-crater-hole I wonder which they'd choose? |
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Julius
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
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| Posted: Sun Oct 08, 2006 11:50 pm Post subject: |
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Speculation about what could hapen is pretty irrelevant to the new reality, now that they actually have tested it..
Personally I think war is more or less inevitable..although it may come from China. Just a matter of time. We could have several months of build up first.
There is no way China or Japan will put up with a nuclear NK. |
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 12:43 am Post subject: |
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Given China's own designs on the territory of NK, you may be right. Ooops! Too late! Well, actually, they do still need that delivery system.... so, maybe China will think this is the time to take a bite out of Korea.
For reference to China's designs on NK, search on China's Northeast Project and the CASS (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences...? ) . |
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The Lemon
Joined: 11 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 1:20 am Post subject: |
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| If NK Tests a Nuke, What Do You Think Will Happen? |
I'm predicting 30+ threads on the topic flooding the forums - isn't it exciting to be the OP of a popular thread? It's like being a popular host at a party! - but I may be offbase with this prediction. We'll just have to see when the time comes. |
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