Korean Job Discussion Forums

thepeel · Joined: 08 Aug 2004

I'm afraid MDave hasn't really a clue.

A bunch of 2g/month English teachers changing over their savings isn't going to do jack to the FXmarket. 1.6 trillion dollars a day moves around the worlds FX markets, ya'll are a drop in the drop of the bucket. Protect your savings and do the rational thing. Even a 1.5% drop is money you worked hard for that is just gone. Poof!

The won is going to get hammered over this. There will be dips and recoveries, but the end will be a less valuable currency, which means less real value for those who hold it. Get out get out get out get out of the won.

The question isn't will it decline (it already has) or will the decline hold over the medium-run (it will) but how bad will the decline be? And that depends on George W. Bush and Kim. Not two guys I want my savings riding on.

bucheon bum · Joined: 16 Jan 2003

Gopher · Joined: 04 Jun 2005

bucheon bum · Joined: 16 Jan 2003

totally different circumstances. the koreas were more equal then, North Korea had the support of both China and the USSR, and it probably figured the USA wouldn't get involved.

I mean yes, it would be to unite the peninsula, but I think KJI and his associates aren't that dumb and ignorant to think it is possible.

Gopher · Joined: 04 Jun 2005

I think too many are crediting Kim Jong Il and the entire North Korean regime with a rational-actor mindset that has clearly only been arrived at by wishful thinking.

The bottom line is this: it is not clear at all where this is going to end up. And Kim is a far more unknown and unpredictable than a known and predictable quantity. And now he apparently has thermonuclear weapons at his disposal.

So we need to remember that sometimes leaders do things and lead people into wars that make no sense whatsoever. (And, not you Bucheon, but to the mob: please do not pounce on me for saying this and start screaming about W. Bush and Iraq because that is exactly what I had in mind when I wrote this. Please get ahold of yourselves for just a nanosecond and see that this problem applies quite generally in world affairs -- this has been a preemptive strike by gopher.)

Wangja · Joined: 17 May 2004 Location: Seoul, Yongsan

Hollywoodaction · Joined: 02 Jul 2004

Junior · Joined: 18 Nov 2005 Location: the eye

The won today:

Cash Buying Selling

1USD 977.10 943.50

1EUR 1233.17 1185.05

Hollywoodaction · Joined: 02 Jul 2004

Xian · Joined: 08 Jan 2006

Wangja · Joined: 17 May 2004 Location: Seoul, Yongsan

This is the last 30 days, at midday NY time 9 October.

Doesn't look much of a hit to me.

thepeel · Joined: 08 Aug 2004

Just wait a few days/weeks and then look at the graphs. There will be a decline but the question is how much and for how long.

And if it wasn't a nuke, than expect the markets to return to normal a few days after confirmation of this.

Wangja · Joined: 17 May 2004 Location: Seoul, Yongsan

thepeel · Joined: 08 Aug 2004

I have no idea. If it wasn't a nuke then all will be normal. If it was a nuke and a navel blockade happens, then all bets are off. If it was a nuke and Bush (gasp!) wants to negotiate then I dunno.

There will be less investment capital heading in, and more foreign and Korean capital heading out due to the instability. Clearly, this will affect GDP growth and the BOK must respond accordingly with interest rate changes. But, the BOK doesn't use inflation rate targeting so it is hard to tell just what they will do, as there is very little transparency.

The first shock is FXtraders trying to capitalize on the situation, and I think that will stabilize quickly (if it already hasn't). The long term question is (if it was a nuke) what 1) The BOK does 2) Bush/Hu/Roh do and how this affects FDI and FX flows.

I assume it likely was some kind of nuke and that Bush being Bush we will have some interesting times ahead of us. If I held any Won, I would be selling now, now that the FXtraders are finished having their fun.