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The Beginning of the End? Regime Change Imminent?

 
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Kimchi Cowboy



Joined: 17 Sep 2006

PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2006 8:46 pm    Post subject: The Beginning of the End? Regime Change Imminent? Reply with quote

Does the North's recent behaviour not seem more than a little odd, even for the Norks?

They've been living in virtual isolation for years and have been relying on the good graces of their few "allies" (that's a loose and inadequate word...) to provide them with aid. They've been warned repeatedly not to pursue this program at the risk of losing their few supporters, and now it seems to be really happening. Russia and China - which has been their most staunch and loyal backer - are backing slowly out the room. Japan is suspending all shipping to/from the North. Does the South even have the capability or the political will to take up the slack? Doubtful. Who's left?

And now they're apparently prepping ANOTHER test, again in spite of warnings and promises of further consequences. Just what is the North trying to prove?

They MUST know that their regime cannot survive an all-out war, either with the US or with China / Russia. Oh yeah, they would take a lot of "imperialist dogs" out with them as they go, but go they surely will.

So what's going on? Who's REALLY behind this latest push of swagger and bellicosity? Is it KJI himself, or are their military leaders taking matters into their own hands? Is a coup in the offing?

Place your bets at the table, folks. How long do you give KJI and the current regime? Is the mighty North going to go with a whimper or a bang - or something in between?
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Nambucaveman



Joined: 03 Aug 2006

PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2006 9:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

KC,

According to an article posted a day or two ago that may well be true. You can find that here:

http://www.eslcafe.com/forums/korea/viewtopic.php?t=68617
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Yu_Bum_suk



Joined: 25 Dec 2004

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2006 12:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think all of this is coming from KJI and his immediate backers. War is the only one way he could rally support in the North. If he's smart about it, he may be able to rally some support in the South, too, though not in the way he probably hopes.

If I were KJI and had a reckless disregard for human life and thought I and my father were the most important people in the history of the most important race, what would I do if I believed my regime were really going to collapse? I'd lob a few nukes at US military bases in Japan. The US and probably Japan would feel obligated to respond, and not only would there be the support of all the Norks but a lot of hanguk-saram from SK, too.
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Junior



Joined: 18 Nov 2005
Location: the eye

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2006 1:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yu_Bum_suk wrote:
what would I do if I believed my regime were really going to collapse? I'd lob a few nukes at US military bases in Japan.



Comforting thought, but if I were kimJ I'd surprise attack seoul with conventional artillery first, taking out US bases as a priority. That way the enemy might hold off the nuclear button and fight conventionally. Theres a fair chance that I'd get very far south before the US was able to hold or push my troops back.
Besides, it'd be good to punish my brothers for getting in bed with the americans all these years.

The few nukes I have i'd save until It looked like I was losing. And yeah, I guess i could spare one for Japan too for old times sake.
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NAVFC



Joined: 10 May 2006

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2006 2:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Kim Jong Il even knows how dangerously close to the end hes coming. In totalitarian governments, many time the subordinates will be too scared to tell the reality of it all for fear of reprisals.
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