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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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 Posted: Tue Oct 24, 2006 7:43 am Post subject: |
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| bucheon bum wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| On the other hand wrote: |
UM wrote:
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| However it does seem that things are getting better ( I see the escalating violence as a reaction to it) |
UM:
Which violence are you referring to? The violence of the Sunni/baathist insurgency, or the violence of the Shiite militias? Because I could maybe sorta see how the insurgency could be commiting acts of violence in order to prevent post-baathist Iraq from becoming governable. But if things really are getting better overall, I can't understand why the Shiite militias are behaving as they are. If the baathists and the Sunni supremacists are indeed losing, what exactly is prompting the Shiite militias to engage in the mass slaughter of Sunnis? |
Iran?
Not that I necessarily think things are going swimmingly in Iraq. |
and why would Iran want an unstable Iraq on its borders? I understand it is overtly pro-shiite, but if the present gov't were to succeed, it wouldn't be a bad thing for Iran in the long run. |
An instable Iraq ties down the Americans. Contacts with an active resistance allows the Iranians to use Shi'a to hold American troops hostage in the case that the administration elects to use the three carrier groups in the Gulf offensively against Iranian targets.
Why the Americans can't pull the table and reverse this little scherade shows that the Americans, despite their modern and popular reputation, are ultimately too good (as of yet). |
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On the other hand
Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue
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| Posted: Tue Oct 24, 2006 8:49 am Post subject: |
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Since you guys are discussing Iran's interests in the current Iraqi situation, I thought I would post this article, from the Khaleej Times. I linked to it through Juan Cole.
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The intelligence arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Forces � Al Quds, created shortly after the Iranian revolution and was responsible for promoting "external jihad" � was in charge of most, if not all, Iranian activities related to the �Iraqi theatre of operation�, including the sponsorship and control of the pro-Iran Shia opposition groups in Iraq and a direct and crucial control of these groups� intelligence and armed wings, as well as militias. Among the chief aims of these institutions were: first, prevent an American success in Iraq to ensure that it did not undermine the stability and security of Iran, as well as threaten the survival of the Islamic regime, at a later stage; second, establish a viable and sustainable Iranian influence in �new Iraq� that could serve Iran�s long-term strategic interests in the region and beyond; and third, prevent the emergence of a �strong Iraq� that could maintain its traditional challenge and competition with Iran, or revive the traditional balance of power between the two states and the practice of containment.
Thus, the Iranian formula was simple and well-defined: a failed US + a weak and fragmented Iraq = a strong and influential Iran.
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I don't know what to make of all this, myself. Cole disagrees on some of the article's points.
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First, I don't believe Najaf and Qom are close. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani does not like the Iranian regime and told someone I know, "Even if I have to be wiped out, I will not allow the experience of Iran to be repeated in Iraq." He was referring to Khomeinism. Second, I don't believe Iran wants Iraq to fragment. It is as afraid as Turkey of an independent Kurdistan. But the piece is worth reading and gives an idea of what Gulf Arab intellectuals are thinking about this problem.
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http://tinyurl.com/y49wb7 |
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TheUrbanMyth
Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired
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| Posted: Tue Oct 24, 2006 4:43 pm Post subject: |
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| On the other hand wrote: |
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Revenge for one. If someone blows up your child/friend/parent.., and you are used to the government not doing anything or at least waiting a long time for it, wouldn't you be tempted in the least to pick up a AK-47 and go hunting?
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Well, sure. If I were living in a society where the government wasn't doing anything about that. But then I think I would have a bit of difficulty describing such a society as one where things were, to use your terminology, "getting better". I think a "getting better" society would be one where violent insurgencies were put down by the duly-constituted authorities, not by marauding death squads. |
Well I didn't say everything was getting better, just that things were. The control of the provinces is being handed back to the Iraqis one by one. The Kurds are doing well (comparatively) in their territory.
As for the death squads maybe it will send a message to the insurgency. If the majority of the population gets energized by these attacks and it becomes Sunni against Shitte all across Iraq it is the Sunnis (the bulk of the insurgents) who are likely to lose as they are outnumbered and America will be supporting the other side. Sooner or later this realization will sink in. And since the death squads are not constrained by world opinion, they will not be hampered in their methods as the Americans are. |
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laogaiguk
Joined: 06 Dec 2005
Location: somewhere in Korea
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| Posted: Tue Oct 24, 2006 4:48 pm Post subject: |
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| TheUrbanMyth wrote: |
As for the death squads maybe it will send a message to the insurgency. If the majority of the population gets energized by these attacks and it becomes Sunni against *beep* all across Iraq it is the Sunnis (the bulk of the insurgents) who are likely to lose as they are outnumbered and America will be supporting the other side. Sooner or later this realization will sink in. And since the death squads are not constrained by world opinion, they will not be hampered in their methods as the Americans are. |
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Octavius Hite
Joined: 28 Jan 2004
Location: Househunting, looking for a new bunker from which to convert the world to homosexuality.
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| Posted: Tue Oct 24, 2006 5:00 pm Post subject: |
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| America supporting death squads in a foriegn country? The more things change the more they stay the same. |
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On the other hand
Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue
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| Posted: Wed Oct 25, 2006 12:51 am Post subject: |
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| As for the death squads maybe it will send a message to the insurgency. |
The only message I can see the insurgency getting is that some Shiites, including those with connections to the government, are prepared to engage in the indiscriminate killing of Sunnis. And I think you'll find the insurgents are gonna be happy to spread that message far and wide among the Sunni population.
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| If the majority of the population gets energized by these attacks and it becomes Sunni against *beep* all across Iraq it is the Sunnis (the bulk of the insurgents) who are likely to lose as they are outnumbered and America will be supporting the other side. Sooner or later this realization will sink in. |
Well, yeah, I guess in the long run there are more Shiites to kill Sunnis than there are Sunnis to kill Shiites, if that's the type of calculation you're making here. But with the insurgency targetting innocent civilians on a daily basis, and the militias not being at all choosy about who gets tossed into the mass graves(as long as they're Sunni), I think you'll find that that it's going to be a VERY long, not to mention bloody, run.
Last edited by On the other hand on Wed Oct 25, 2006 3:03 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Oct 25, 2006 2:57 am Post subject: |
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| On the other hand wrote: |
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| As for the death squads maybe it will send a message to the insurgency. |
The only message I can see the insurgency getting is that some Shiites, including those with connections to the government, are prepared to engage in the indiscriminate killing of Sunnis. And I think you'll find the insurgents are gonna happy to spread that message far and wide among the Sunni population.
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| If the majority of the population gets energized by these attacks and it becomes Sunni against *beep* all across Iraq it is the Sunnis (the bulk of the insurgents) who are likely to lose as they are outnumbered and America will be supporting the other side. Sooner or later this realization will sink in. |
Well, yeah, I guess in the long run there are more Shiites to kill Sunnis than there are Sunnis to kill Shiites, if that's the type of calculation you're making here. But with the insurgency targetting innocent civilians on a daily basis, and the militias not being at all choosy about who gets tossed into the mass graves(as long as they're Sunni), I think you'll find that that it's going to be a VERY long, not to mention bloody, run. |
War continues until all those who wish to fight have either died or had their fill. The problem with this kind of war is that it is not war, it is militias running around killing people.
War is supposed to be hell, lest we come to enjoy it. Well, the only way to end this conflict is to make heads roll and spill blood, make it a real war rather than house to house abductions. Or at least counter the abductions by abducting the families of the abductors. This is something the Americans won't be able to do. The Americans might as well resign from the field. Their adversaries are forcing them to do something which they won't bring themselves to do. |
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TheUrbanMyth
Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired
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| Posted: Wed Oct 25, 2006 3:24 am Post subject: |
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| On the other hand wrote: |
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| As for the death squads maybe it will send a message to the insurgency. |
The only message I can see the insurgency getting is that some Shiites, including those with connections to the government, are prepared to engage in the indiscriminate killing of Sunnis. And I think you'll find the insurgents are gonna be happy to spread that message far and wide among the Sunni population.
| Quote: |
| If the majority of the population gets energized by these attacks and it becomes Sunni against *beep* all across Iraq it is the Sunnis (the bulk of the insurgents) who are likely to lose as they are outnumbered and America will be supporting the other side. Sooner or later this realization will sink in. |
Well, yeah, I guess in the long run there are more Shiites to kill Sunnis than there are Sunnis to kill Shiites, if that's the type of calculation you're making here. But with the insurgency targetting innocent civilians on a daily basis, and the militias not being at all choosy about who gets tossed into the mass graves(as long as they're Sunni), ) I think you'll find that that it's going to be a VERY long, not to mention bloody, run. |
. And the U.S and Iraqi government should also be trying to spread the message that as long as the insurgency continues that they don't give a damn. In other words they give the Sunnis a stark choice. Either neutralize your insurgents (some of the Sunnis who are not involved in the war must know who some of the insurgents are or where some hideouts are) or we will give the militas a free hand. We can't hold back the death squads if your insurgents keep attacking us. Restrain them and then and ONLY then can we refocus and crack down on the death squads.
That's the message that should be getting spread. |
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