Dave's ESL Cafe's Student Discussion Forums

[Enhao]

I think the bigest winner is America.

Because if china develop as this without any war or trouble, soon it will be the strongest or be the second world power.

However I think U.S want a war between China and taiwan and he (U.S) can get into the war.For slow down China or let china go back the where they want. So they can keep be the strongest one in the world.

I don't know what Japan is thinking because His power is not enough to conputer any place now and after the war He will lost many business just like World war II.

Thanks for your opinion
Hope my topic is not too boring
_________________
Hi I am a kind chinese boy. I am a little like a girl because I shy about everthing I am a new
immigrant to America for 1 years I hope I could find a bosom friend here (female is good) I am not a playboy I just want to have a female bosom friend.

[Elizabirth]

I am pretty agree with you. If the war had started,it will give a big chance to Americans to sell their overstock wapons and gain a great profit.

[elichina]

I disagree "I think the bigest winner is America. "

Beacurse The war happied.I think tai wang wil return to china.

But if US join this war ,I think USwill lost more than today.

Because US people will dead And the economic realationship between

china and US will broke.The US not the largest country.I think may be

japan or the other countries will be the largest country.

SO if you think"the bigest winner is America",I don't know where are
you come from .But I know you are a stupid.
_________________
I'm a college student of sias international university .
I keep silent ,never to debate with you ,Not mean I agree with you!

[Enhao]

Yeah!
you are right I ready don't know what is going to happen next hope the world will be fine I think the UN is not useful. First USA and England are wear one pant and If Japan get into UN's permanment delegutes.Than the UN almost are control by thay.

ai~~~



Thank you for you opinion
I think I can't find a good topic anyway
_________________
Hi I am a kind chinese boy. I am a little like a girl because I shy about everthing I am a new
immigrant to America for 1 years I hope I could find a bosom friend here (female is good) I am not a playboy I just want to have a female bosom friend.

[Bob S.]

Ha! You are all wrong. If China attacks Taiwan, the biggest winner will be...
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India.

Think about it. If communist dictatorship China attacks democratic Taiwan, the big democratic Western countries (U.S., Great Britain, Australia) will impose an economic embargo and shut down all trade and financial ties to China. A few other democratic countires (Canada, Japan, maybe France and New Zealand) will be guilted into going along with the embargo. Japan might be so scared of China's military agression, it may decide to develop atomic weapons which it could easily do in a few years thanks to its advance technology and economy.
With China Inc. basically shut down due to lack of real business, the world will look to alternatives for affordable labor and manufacturing. With its strong historical ties to G.B. and with English as an official language, India is in a prime position to move in and quickly take up the slack. If India could develop foreign business-friendly cities like China already has, it could be a serious economic rival even today.

I think the leaders of China are wise enough to know this. Attacking Taiwan to force it to return to the motherland will be a pyric victory. Better to have gradual reforms in the mainland itself first. Then maybe, someday in the future, Taiwan will gladly reunite of its own free will.

[elichina]

I don't agree with Bob S. strongly!!!!
You are a really Engineer ??I think you are so foolishman,In china,if someone is Engineer,Most of them are very clever.But you are foolish.

First ,I think you has prejudice about china.
I said china is "communist dictatorship China "And You said Western countries is "big democratic Western countries "
I don't agree with you .China has her politic
system .I think you haven't been in china.You don't regonize china and the culture of china.
I wish you should visit china first ,Then you
could made your idea.

Second,If war happied,I think like Mr.Admiral
said :"China starts the war with Taiwan, the USA helps the Taiwan, Russia will help China, maybe England helps the USA, andandand... "Include india will join the war ,Please don't
imagine that india will not join the war!!I
think the war between Pakistan and india will happy too .Because In my opinion if china had a war Pakistan lost china' support,India will
Attack Pakistan.I think the world war happied.
May be the the third world war happied.All the
countries join the war.I could Image,May be the US not the most power.May be many people dead and many people poor as before and you lost your work.............

And you know china 's economic developing the most fast of the world.China 's international
trade is the third bigeest in the war .If china 's economic stop .I think the world 's economic stop at least.The human will never buy the cheap and good goods...............


So In my opinion ,you are a foolishman ,Through I 'm younger than you.Through you are
an Engineer


SO

I agree with Mr.Admiral' opinion"To my mind nobody will be the winner"
_________________
I'm a college student of sias international university .
I keep silent ,never to debate with you ,Not mean I agree with you!

[Bob S.]

[Enhao]

Wao~
_________________
Hi I am a kind chinese boy. I am a little like a girl because I shy about everthing I am a new
immigrant to America for 1 years I hope I could find a bosom friend here (female is good) I am not a playboy I just want to have a female bosom friend.

[element105]

Well,I have to say I agree with Bob that India will be the biggest winner if the war breaks out.

I am not sure what courses Russia may take,but at least at the beginning of the imagining war,Russia will be playing neutral and observing the war carry through,not untill one side turning into a inferior position,then she will claim war to the inferior position,helping another side defeat it and gaining huge postwar benefits.That's almost what Japan did in WWI.So I believe not only one country will do so by then.

However,due to both side have had nuclear weapons,whatever which one losing the war,the nuclear war begins.

The best solution for both side and the whole world is "one country,two system" which can effectively and directly prevent the world from the doomsday made of nuclear war.

[Bob S.]

Yeah, I see your point. Russia is building closer economic and military ties with China, but at the same time it still needs the West as a market for its oil. So it's difficult to say which way Putin would go. A person could argue either way.
In any case, if such a war started, it would be a good time to take a long vacation down to South Africa or Argentina (and hope the radioactive fallout stays north of the equator).

[element105]

By far I can see nothing more that Russia gains to help China but nuclear attacks,compared with the limited economic benefits which gains from China market.Anyway,money is not worth exchanging with life.

I also don't think the USA will go into the war readily,first she must convince her citizens to risk a probable nuclear war for taiwan,which actually is the legal and historical territory of China.

[elskamp]

I don�t believe that the US have enough resources to engage in a new war in Taiwan. If the US wished to support Taiwan the would have to leave Iraq. Then maybe the Islamic Fundamentalists would be the winners.

[Bob S.]

While the original question asked "What if" the U.S. went to war to protect the government of Taiwan, I have to agree with element105 on this. I also doubt the U.S. would be ready for full war with China over Taiwan. If the government of mainland China tried to move against Taiwan, the U.S. might first try a Navy blockade to stop them. But if the PRC was agressively persistant, I think the U.S. would initially step back, provide weapons to the Taiwanese defenders, and opt for an economic embargo solution. And in the end, the PRC may win the battle for Taiwan but lose the war as its economy gets hit hard.

I agree too that a "one country, two systems" approach works best for now. And that is basically what they have now, not unlike Hong Kong during British rule: functional independence without declaring official independence. Declaring official independence would be very provocative to mainland China. But what would they get from this risk? A seat at the U.N.? That's not worth much anymore. They already have unofficial diplomatic contact with anyone important to them. The risk-benefit analysis, I think, shows it just isn't worth it at this point. So if the PRC can have patience (and with a country with over 5,000 years of history, what's another decade or two?), a solution will be found that can avoid bloodshed.

[element105]

Bob,I admire your extraordinary insight and horizon and totally agree with you on this point this time.

"One country,two system" is a solution that mainland provides to taiwan.Certainly peace is our best hope,so we just require them not to declare independence in order to keep this currently peaceful situation on moving along,because we are compatriots at all.

And yes,we have been walking along with each other for five thousand years since our unique culture was born,fifty years separation can change nothing between us,so another dacade can change nothing too,now what we need is just patience,patience for both side.I am worried about that the taiwan governor who wants to gain more power immediately by separating action may have no that patience to wait(I've heard that the students there are now being taught that they are not Chinese and the taiwan government are now preparing a separate vote before the year 2008).But something he's forgotten completed,except us,no one else will be agreeing to bleed last drop of blood out for the reunification of China,no one else.And I am glad to see the anti-secession law has been made out in last month,it's really a remarkable step.