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Japanese Economy
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davechile



Joined: 17 Mar 2006
Posts: 87
Location: San Francisco, CA
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 6:06 pm    Post subject: Japanese Economy Reply with quote
Live opinion from the people on the ground

For those of you whom pay attention to politics and the Japanese Economy this question is for you!

As you know Japan has been in a recession/stagnation/steady decline for little over a decade ok maybe more than that.

Do you think with the growth in China being a bigger and bigger trading partner to Japan over the next 5 years.
Do you see that it will improve the Japanese economy? Or do you think Korea will benefit the most from China's growth?

If Japan gets out of it's economic doldrum; Do you think English will become a valued language to learn and thus improve the TEFL salary rates? Or do you see Mandarin/Cantonese the new English boom (through a long pass on this question).

I can't see English dying out as the international language in our life times, but should the Japanese economy rise again, do you see it floating the demand for learning English?

Are the Heady days of the late 80's teaching English in Japan gone forever?

Dave
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pastis



Joined: 21 Jul 2006
Posts: 82
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:37 pm    Post subject: Re: Japanese Economy Reply with quote
davechile wrote:
Live opinion from the people on the ground

For those of you whom pay attention to politics and the Japanese Economy this question is for you!

As you know Japan has been in a recession/stagnation/steady decline for little over a decade ok maybe more than that.

Do you think with the growth in China being a bigger and bigger trading partner to Japan over the next 5 years.
Do you see that it will improve the Japanese economy?

Yes a bit, but it's more of a global phenomenon. Japan is poised to do well in the future, though in the short term a rise in the value of the yen (an indirect result of the ongoing sub prime loan situation in the U.S. - it's complicated) may hurt exports, which Japan depends on so much. Long term, economists seem to think things are looking decent though.

Quote:
Or do you think Korea will benefit the most from China's growth?

Uh, no. Quite the opposite I think. Many Korean companies are likely set to suffer from loads and loads of Chinese competition both domestically and abroad. At least Japan still has a huge technological edge, but why buy cheap Korean junk when you can buy similar, cheaper Chinese stuff? That's my take on it anyway...
Quote:

If Japan gets out of it's economic doldrum; Do you think English will become a valued language to learn and thus improve the TEFL salary rates? Or do you see Mandarin/Cantonese the new English boom (through a long pass on this question).

No, never. Personally I think China's current explosive growth is completely unsustainable and over-hyped. I also doubt China will overtake the U.S. as the dominant force on the globe (despite what everyone likes to say)... but anyway whether I'm right about that or not, as far as languages go English is here to stay as the global lingua franca. I think Chinese is just too unpractical for non-natives (way, way too many characters to learn). My opinion.

Quote:
I can't see English dying out as the international language in our life times, but should the Japanese economy rise again, do you see it floating the demand for learning English?

Not really. The Japanese ESL industry is already pretty saturated. Look to China, or pretty well any other developing country for growth.

Quote:
Are the Heady days of the late 80's teaching English in Japan gone forever?

Yes. With good reason too.
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Shimmeringstar



Joined: 18 Mar 2007
Posts: 34
Location: Kagoshima, Japan
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
With the quickly falling birthrate and aging population of Japan, I'd say the country is in a economic decline with no end in sight. Sure, they've had a technological edge in this world, but they won't hold onto it for long at the rate things are going. Hopefully they can get some better political leaders to start thinking about ways to better the situation... some individual businesses will have to reconsider policies of working mothers and such, as well (this is getting better in some areas on Japan already). These days if women have to choose between a family and a career, many are choosing the career. Unless people start having kids, I'd say Japan will have to start opening its doors more to immigration to up numbers and save the population and industry.
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pastis



Joined: 21 Jul 2006
Posts: 82
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 2:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Shimmeringstar wrote:
With the quickly falling birthrate and aging population of Japan, I'd say the country is in a economic decline with no end in sight. Sure, they've had a technological edge in this world, but they won't hold onto it for long at the rate things are going. Hopefully they can get some better political leaders to start thinking about ways to better the situation... some individual businesses will have to reconsider policies of working mothers and such, as well (this is getting better in some areas on Japan already). These days if women have to choose between a family and a career, many are choosing the career. Unless people start having kids, I'd say Japan will have to start opening its doors more to immigration to up numbers and save the population and industry.


Yep, that's a huge issue. However, Japan is not unique in this, pretty well every developed country has the same problem. With it's one child policy and rapid modernization, it is likely to become an issue in China in the future as well.
Likely Japan will either choose or be forced to increase immigration when the time comes. In the meantime, it will always be able to float on its exports. Actually the Japanese economy is said to be in quite good shape thesedays and consumer prices are actually starting to rise for like the first time in a decade.
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seanmcginty



Joined: 27 Sep 2005
Posts: 203
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Just as a point of fact:

Japan has actually been out of recession for about five years now. Its a little known fact that Japan has actually been enjoying its longest period of sustained growth in post-war history since 2002 (not the period of highest growth, mind you, just the longest period of uninterupted growth).

I agree with the above poster's comment that China's economic growth is unsustainable over the long term. It'll be a long time before its economy becomes as large as Japan's.
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stillnosheep



Joined: 01 Mar 2004
Posts: 2068
Location: eslcafe
PostPosted: Tue Sep 25, 2007 12:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
seanmcginty wrote:
I agree with the above poster's comment that China's economic growth is unsustainable over the long term. It'll be a long time before its economy becomes as large as Japan's.

Just as a point of fact:

China's economy, measured using Purchasing Power Parity, is already larger than is Japan's.
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Quibby84



Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 643
Location: Japan
PostPosted: Tue Sep 25, 2007 12:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
That was one the news today (in CNN). They were saying that the US is worried because China now has enough money to buy out some of the big american companies. It is the USs fault because they put so many big companies there trying to save money...and now they will pay for their cheapness..
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