|
Job Discussion Forums
"The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Students and Teachers from Around the World!"
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
davechile
Joined: 17 Mar 2006
Posts: 87
Location: San Francisco, CA
|
 Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 6:06 pm Post subject: Japanese Economy |
 |
|
Live opinion from the people on the ground
For those of you whom pay attention to politics and the Japanese Economy this question is for you!
As you know Japan has been in a recession/stagnation/steady decline for little over a decade ok maybe more than that.
Do you think with the growth in China being a bigger and bigger trading partner to Japan over the next 5 years.
Do you see that it will improve the Japanese economy? Or do you think Korea will benefit the most from China's growth?
If Japan gets out of it's economic doldrum; Do you think English will become a valued language to learn and thus improve the TEFL salary rates? Or do you see Mandarin/Cantonese the new English boom (through a long pass on this question).
I can't see English dying out as the international language in our life times, but should the Japanese economy rise again, do you see it floating the demand for learning English?
Are the Heady days of the late 80's teaching English in Japan gone forever?
Dave |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
pastis
Joined: 21 Jul 2006
Posts: 82
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:37 pm Post subject: Re: Japanese Economy |
|
|
| davechile wrote: |
Live opinion from the people on the ground
For those of you whom pay attention to politics and the Japanese Economy this question is for you!
As you know Japan has been in a recession/stagnation/steady decline for little over a decade ok maybe more than that.
Do you think with the growth in China being a bigger and bigger trading partner to Japan over the next 5 years.
Do you see that it will improve the Japanese economy? |
Yes a bit, but it's more of a global phenomenon. Japan is poised to do well in the future, though in the short term a rise in the value of the yen (an indirect result of the ongoing sub prime loan situation in the U.S. - it's complicated) may hurt exports, which Japan depends on so much. Long term, economists seem to think things are looking decent though.
| Quote: |
| Or do you think Korea will benefit the most from China's growth? |
Uh, no. Quite the opposite I think. Many Korean companies are likely set to suffer from loads and loads of Chinese competition both domestically and abroad. At least Japan still has a huge technological edge, but why buy cheap Korean junk when you can buy similar, cheaper Chinese stuff? That's my take on it anyway...
| Quote: |
If Japan gets out of it's economic doldrum; Do you think English will become a valued language to learn and thus improve the TEFL salary rates? Or do you see Mandarin/Cantonese the new English boom (through a long pass on this question). |
No, never. Personally I think China's current explosive growth is completely unsustainable and over-hyped. I also doubt China will overtake the U.S. as the dominant force on the globe (despite what everyone likes to say)... but anyway whether I'm right about that or not, as far as languages go English is here to stay as the global lingua franca. I think Chinese is just too unpractical for non-natives (way, way too many characters to learn). My opinion.
| Quote: |
| I can't see English dying out as the international language in our life times, but should the Japanese economy rise again, do you see it floating the demand for learning English? |
Not really. The Japanese ESL industry is already pretty saturated. Look to China, or pretty well any other developing country for growth.
| Quote: |
| Are the Heady days of the late 80's teaching English in Japan gone forever? |
Yes. With good reason too. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Shimmeringstar
Joined: 18 Mar 2007
Posts: 34
Location: Kagoshima, Japan
|
| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:23 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| With the quickly falling birthrate and aging population of Japan, I'd say the country is in a economic decline with no end in sight. Sure, they've had a technological edge in this world, but they won't hold onto it for long at the rate things are going. Hopefully they can get some better political leaders to start thinking about ways to better the situation... some individual businesses will have to reconsider policies of working mothers and such, as well (this is getting better in some areas on Japan already). These days if women have to choose between a family and a career, many are choosing the career. Unless people start having kids, I'd say Japan will have to start opening its doors more to immigration to up numbers and save the population and industry. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
pastis
Joined: 21 Jul 2006
Posts: 82
|
| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 2:38 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Shimmeringstar wrote: |
| With the quickly falling birthrate and aging population of Japan, I'd say the country is in a economic decline with no end in sight. Sure, they've had a technological edge in this world, but they won't hold onto it for long at the rate things are going. Hopefully they can get some better political leaders to start thinking about ways to better the situation... some individual businesses will have to reconsider policies of working mothers and such, as well (this is getting better in some areas on Japan already). These days if women have to choose between a family and a career, many are choosing the career. Unless people start having kids, I'd say Japan will have to start opening its doors more to immigration to up numbers and save the population and industry. |
Yep, that's a huge issue. However, Japan is not unique in this, pretty well every developed country has the same problem. With it's one child policy and rapid modernization, it is likely to become an issue in China in the future as well.
Likely Japan will either choose or be forced to increase immigration when the time comes. In the meantime, it will always be able to float on its exports. Actually the Japanese economy is said to be in quite good shape thesedays and consumer prices are actually starting to rise for like the first time in a decade. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
seanmcginty
Joined: 27 Sep 2005
Posts: 203
|
| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:37 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Just as a point of fact:
Japan has actually been out of recession for about five years now. Its a little known fact that Japan has actually been enjoying its longest period of sustained growth in post-war history since 2002 (not the period of highest growth, mind you, just the longest period of uninterupted growth).
I agree with the above poster's comment that China's economic growth is unsustainable over the long term. It'll be a long time before its economy becomes as large as Japan's. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
stillnosheep
Joined: 01 Mar 2004
Posts: 2068
Location: eslcafe
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2007 12:01 am Post subject: |
|
|
| seanmcginty wrote: |
| I agree with the above poster's comment that China's economic growth is unsustainable over the long term. It'll be a long time before its economy becomes as large as Japan's. |
Just as a point of fact:
China's economy, measured using Purchasing Power Parity, is already larger than is Japan's. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Quibby84
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 643
Location: Japan
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2007 12:05 am Post subject: |
|
|
| That was one the news today (in CNN). They were saying that the US is worried because China now has enough money to buy out some of the big american companies. It is the USs fault because they put so many big companies there trying to save money...and now they will pay for their cheapness.. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
KCorv100
Joined: 29 Jul 2007
Posts: 14
|
| Posted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 1:41 pm Post subject: |
|
|
The US is in a constant state of worry - and it should be - as the worlds limping premier number one power who's luck has run out. Vast internal markets and technology only go so far if you don't know how to change. Also, America realises that a tax on imports (from China) is the same as a tax on its own exports - economic fact.
On the other hand China's growth is completely unsustainable, and they have no good idea about how to power their future after the oil runs out.
The future of the ESL in Japan is optimistic! Let's support our Japanese hosts by investing ever more heavily in their delicious food! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
flyer
Joined: 16 May 2003
Posts: 539
Location: Sapporo Japan
|
| Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2007 5:18 am Post subject: |
|
|
hhhmmm
interesting thread, a nice change from all the Nova news LOL |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
seanmcginty
Joined: 27 Sep 2005
Posts: 203
|
| Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2007 3:50 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| stillnosheep wrote: |
| seanmcginty wrote: |
| I agree with the above poster's comment that China's economic growth is unsustainable over the long term. It'll be a long time before its economy becomes as large as Japan's. |
Just as a point of fact:
China's economy, measured using Purchasing Power Parity, is already larger than is Japan's. |
But in terms of GDP Japan is still way ahead. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Chris21
Joined: 30 Apr 2006
Posts: 366
Location: Japan
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 07, 2007 2:59 am Post subject: |
|
|
| No, it's not. China's GDP is more than twice that of Japan. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
markle
Joined: 17 Jan 2003
Posts: 1316
Location: Out of Japan
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 07, 2007 2:58 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I think he means per capita GDP
Seriously to the OP, given the responses given here, you would get a more insightful opinion of the state of the Japanese economy down your local bar/pub. Really if anyone here had a modicum of economic analytical ability, there wouldn't be faffing around teaching English. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
stillnosheep
Joined: 01 Mar 2004
Posts: 2068
Location: eslcafe
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 07, 2007 6:33 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| I wouldn't be so sure. Some of us English Teachers have degrees in Economics and teach GMAT in our spare time. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Chris21
Joined: 30 Apr 2006
Posts: 366
Location: Japan
|
| Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 5:06 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: |
think he means per capita GDP
Seriously to the OP, given the responses given here, you would get a more insightful opinion of the state of the Japanese economy down your local bar/pub. Really if anyone here had a modicum of economic analytical ability, there wouldn't be faffing around teaching English. |
This is a ridiculous comment. Are you suggesting that English teachers are only capable of talking about teaching English? Certainly people are capable of intelligently discussing economics, politics, the arts, or sports without having to be a business executive, politician, artist, or athlete. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Chris21
Joined: 30 Apr 2006
Posts: 366
Location: Japan
|
| Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 5:29 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: |
Live opinion from the people on the ground
For those of you whom pay attention to politics and the Japanese Economy this question is for you!
As you know Japan has been in a recession/stagnation/steady decline for little over a decade ok maybe more than that.
Do you think with the growth in China being a bigger and bigger trading partner to Japan over the next 5 years.
Do you see that it will improve the Japanese economy? Or do you think Korea will benefit the most from China's growth?
If Japan gets out of it's economic doldrum; Do you think English will become a valued language to learn and thus improve the TEFL salary rates? Or do you see Mandarin/Cantonese the new English boom (through a long pass on this question).
I can't see English dying out as the international language in our life times, but should the Japanese economy rise again, do you see it floating the demand for learning English?
Are the Heady days of the late 80's teaching English in Japan gone forever?
Dave |
Probably the reason that so little quality insight has been offered to the OP is that it's not a very interesting post, and demonstrates a very superficial understanding of regional issues.
Of course China will become a more important trading partner as its economy grows. Japan's economy certainly benefits from a healthy Chinese economy, as does Korea, the US, the EU, and other major trading partners. Trying to quantify whose benefits the most is really irrelevant - they are all major trading partners and all have a vested interest in the stability of the Chinese economy.
As for Japan's "doldrums", Japan is enjoying its longest run of economic expansion ever, and its GDP is 2.2%, perfectly inline with other developed and mature economies. Japan is no longer experiencing the robust growth of the 60s, 70s, and 80s, nor is it in the "doldrums" of the 90s. The current state of affairs in Japan is moderate GDP growth, and it's been like this for years.
English is and will always be a valued language to learn. There is too much global infrastructure that has been designed for English to be the global language. No matter how successful China becomes, Manadarin will never supplant English as the world's business language. Further, China's success is largely as a manufacturing center, so as it becomes more successful, wages will increase and its appeal as a manufacturing hub will decrease in favour of other places that offer cheaper alternatives. Certainly China's economy will become more balanced (i.e. like Japan, the UK, Canada, etc) and it will stabilize. If Mandarin were to become the dominant world language, China's economy would need to grossly outpace even the developed economies of the US, western Europe, Japan, Canada, Australia, ec - and that will never happen. At most, China will someday be on equal footing (provided the one-child policy, environmental destruction, and eventual democracy don't do serious damage) as other economic powers.
The state of EFL wages has far less to do with the economy than the supply and demand of English teachers. We'll never see those high salaries of the 80s again as long as Japan is filled with native speakers looking to teach English. We'll probably see a gradual downward pressure on salaries and an upward pressure on qualifications. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
This page is maintained by the one and only Dave Sperling.
Contact Dave's ESL Cafe
Copyright © 2018 Dave Sperling. All Rights Reserved.
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2002 phpBB Group
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
