Job Discussion Forums

[bulgogiboy]

I'm supposed to be going to KSA next month, to take up a teaching position, and am interested to hear the views of people on the ground there about whether or not the current Middle East unrest is having any effect on the Saudi people? Do you think there is much chance of demonstrations spreading to KSA?

[veiledsentiments]

What is your tolerance for uncertainty? There is no predicting what will or won't happen and it doesn't matter if you are currently living in Saudi or watching Al-Jezeera from somewhere on the net.

There is an underclass of Shia in Saudi who have caused problems in the past. Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that most of them live in the eastern parts of Saudi... near the major oil fields.

You know that they are watching very closely what happens with their fellow Shia in Bahrain. Personally I would want to be on the other side of the country if possible. Jiddah?

VS

[Mia Xanthi]

I agree with VS on this one. There is probably little chance of trouble in KSA, and even the tiniest bit of trouble would be put down quickly, with the Saudi National Guard making Khaddafi look like a saint.

However, if there were to be serious trouble, it would be in the Eastern Province among the Shia. A serious uprising could threaten the oil fields, and crushing a Shia revolt in some horrific way (like bombing Qatif out of existence) in theory at least could bring on a conflict with Iran.

This is a wild worst-case scenario that is highly, highly unlikely to happen, but even with the current unrest in Bahrain I would advise anyone who is skittish about these thing to take the west coast option if there is one.

[Bebsi]

There are also some comments on this area in another thread "King Abdullah also ordered..."

My view is that although there will be bigger and louder protests in the kingdom than ever before, they are not likely to lead to any serious instability. There are some serious issues needing to be addressed, yes, but these actually affect the middle-classes more than anyone else, and middle-classes are not in the habit of staging government overthrows.

I don't agree with Mia Xanthi that there would be a violent backlash to protests. I think the Saudi government has more subtle means of dealing with dissent. As protests increased, reforms would be granted, to release the pressure.

Middle-classes protest in the west, sometimes successfully, sometimes not. In those cases, protests are for reforms, i.e. changes within the system, not in the system itself. I think that this is what will transpire in KSA, albeit for a slightly different reason, namely that those who have something to gain, have more to lose. Or maybe not so different!

Now, in the unlikely event that anyone actually tried to overthrow the government, then I think that would be a very different matter, and I certainly wouldn't want to be hanging around the streets of KSA were that to happen.

It's all about motive, and Saudis just don't have the same motives as Libyans did in wanting to get rid of Gaddhafi. Saudis mostly respect their royalty, they just want them to do things differently. Most Libyans, on the other hand, were of the view that the Colonel just had to go. [What is the latest there, anyway?]

I'd say to Bulgogiboy, if you're planning on going to Saudi, go there. You are very unlikely to be affected.

[isabel]

[veiledsentiments]

They have caused the problems because they are the ones with the reasons to do it... obviously.

VS

[Mia Xanthi]

[bulgogiboy]

[Bebsi]

Bulgogiboy,

I really don't see a revolution in Saudi Arabia. Protests, yes, but that's very different.

You mention malaria, are you going to Jizan by any chance? If so, it cannot quite be described as 'near Jeddah'. It's at least 8 hours' drive from Jeddah, in the extreme southwest.

Mia,

I take your point about what happened 25 years ago. But I do think they'd react differently now. It would all depend on the nature and size of the protest. Perceptions, levels of media coverage, and methods of communication have changed immensely in the past quarter century.

And if there were any threat to the oilfields, I'm certain they would react very strongly indeed. However, terrorism and street protests are not the same. And unless a government is possessed of a Gaddhafi level of paranoia, I don't think they would see a bunch or protesting students/women/young professionals as constituting a threat to the oilfields.

[zippy2k]

bulgogiboy, congrats on taking the plunge and welcome to the kindgom! I concur with most of what's been said here re:possibility of unrest in the KSA. A revolt a la Tunisia/Egypt/Libya is quite unlikely I think. I agree with VS i that there's no predicting what will actually happen - I have been surprised at the number of pics of the king going up here in Riyadh since his return - how much of that is a genuine celebration of his return and how much is from his sense of insecurity is hard to gauge but in 2 years here I've never seen him promoting himself so much. What does that say? I don't know.

Libya was run by a 20-something colonel who rose to power in a coup for 41 years. King Abdullah was, like Queen Elizabeth, born into royalty and crowned in peaceful circumstances (at the presumably wiser age of 70something!). He also presides (albeit in an absolute sense) over the world's biggest oil exporter, vital to the global economy in a way Egypt and Tunisia are not. As such he is able to calm the content of his subjects at least financially to such an extent there is no discontent at least over the things that sparked the Tunisian revolt - food prices and basic living standards. Also of course Western and other powers have a lot of investment in this country as well as a military ally and will likely go out of their way to ensure the regime stays intact though they have now seems where that got them with Mubarrak (and to a lesser extent Qadaffi)..

The problem as I see it here is that there is now an awakening in the Arab world that people actually have rights that the rest of the world takes for granted and that they can assert if push comes to shove - to date many of these rights have not been respected in the KSA but here it's more a problem of the influence of religion here on society and the lack of freedoms compared to western societies. Young people who aren't allowed to question or experience anything else other than strict Wahabbism are asking why they don't have these freedoms now after they spend so much time in the west enjoying the very freedoms they are denied at home. I sense resentment from my students about this but also a sense of powerlessness to change anything in a heavily armed strict society. While King Abdullah is, by Arab standards, quite progressive and would like to see more reforms having introduced mixed-sex universities etc., he is held back by the Saudis themselves who, last time around, when they were allowed vote in Councillors, voted for the hardliners. And that was the end of that experiment with democracy ! My guess is that the "Day of Rage" planned here may end up like one of the Syrian one that didn't happen. That said, anything could indeed happen and happen fast and I am making contingency plans if it does turn ugly. There's absolutely no sign of street protests here in in Riyadh though at the moment I have to say.

[Bebsi]

You've basically summed it up, Zippy.

Abdullah is a reformer. He is also a pragmatist, and believes (with some element of justification, I think) that too much sudden change could be as destructive to Saudi society as too little or none at all.

The youth of KSA would like things to be different, I'm pretty certain. However, that's not quite as good a reason to stage a revolt as mass poverty, as in Egypt, and complete tyranny, as in Libya. And they all know that. Like I said before, they have too much to lose. I expect that the protest on March 11 will be peaceful.

[Balzac]

One of those guys calling for a Day of Rage in KSA on FB was shot and killed in unusual circumstances a couple of days ago...

http://en.trend.az/regions/met/arabicr/1838791.html

Balzac

[sheikh yer money-maker]

[veiledsentiments]

But with his age and health... for how much longer...

VS

[2buckets]

I think Abd. was the first NON Sudairi Seven after Khalid and Fahd.