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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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 Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2007 8:05 pm Post subject: Place your bets! |
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Six months ago, Ron Paul was not even on the betting radar. Three months ago he was listed at 50-1. A month ago he was 12-1. Today he is at 6-1!
http://www.betusa.com/odds/next_us_president_betting_754.html
Get your bets in before the odds go any lower. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2007 11:41 pm Post subject: |
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| I don't think I'd put a lot of stock in the wisdom of the people who made those numbers. BILL Clinton is at 300-1 and Arnold Schwarzenegger is at 250-1. Neither are constitutionally eligible for the job. |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2007 6:42 am Post subject: |
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| Some people will bet on anything, and awhile back I recall talk of an amendment so that Arnold could run. MY money would not go on Arnold, however. |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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| Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2007 8:15 am Post subject: |
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Clinton and Shwarzenegger would each need a different amendment to run. Arnold's odds are better than Bill's, and the odds are reasonable: they represent the odds of each of the two different Constitutional amendments required passing in time for either of them to run. Both are close to zero, and therefore, reasonable. Neither is impossible, just close to zero.
Actually, going down the list, all the odds look reasonable given the current facts, although Hillary's odds seem just a tad high. Looks like a good place to bet against Hillary. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2007 8:17 pm Post subject: |
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| I would love the chance to bet against Ron Paul. even if I liked him I would still bet against him. |
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JMO
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Location: Daegu
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| Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2007 8:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Bookies normally know what they are doing, so there must be alot of money going down on Ron Paul. Although I'm not sure how many people bet on this anyway so it might be a relative thing. Maybe related to how passionate his supporters tend to be? |
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JMO
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Location: Daegu
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| Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2007 8:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
| I would love the chance to bet against Ron Paul. even if I liked him I would still bet against him. |
i'd say the odds on Ron Paul not becoming president are pretty low..can you even bet on that? |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2007 8:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
| I would love the chance to bet against Ron Paul. even if I liked him I would still bet against him. |
I love what Glenn Reynolds said about him here.
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RON PAUL: He's just terrible, even when -- which is often, once he's off the subject of the war -- I agree with him. His voice is too high, he can't remember who the Kurds are, and he often comes off like a crazy old man in a bus station.
But that's good news, in a way. Paul's doing better than anyone expected. It's abundantly clear that he's not doing it on charisma and rhetorical skill. Which means that libertarian ideas are actually appealing, since Ron Paul isn't. Paul's flaws as a vessel for those ideas prove the ideas' appeal. If they sell with him as the pitchman, they must be really resonating. I suspect Paul himself would agree with this analysis. Er, except maybe the bus station part. |
Yeah, he's becoming a hero for the true believer libertarians and Canadians, apparently. Too bad there's so much of an 'crazy old man in a bus station' like quality to him. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2007 8:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| ...a hero for the true believer libertarians and Canadians, apparently. |
That is about it. Add young and Idealistic university students to that and you have just identified Ron Paul's base-of-support.
Too bad none of the above have anything at all to say about the Republican primaries, however...Because here is where Ron Paul's future will be decided.
People can start as many internet polls as they like; they can also start threads and spell "revolution" with "LOVE" until the cows come home. But most of them are not registered Republicans.
And how many people here honestly believe that Republican voters will nominate Ron Paul for president? Any takers on that bet? |
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Nowhere Man
Joined: 08 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2007 8:51 pm Post subject: ... |
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| Too bad none of the above have anything at all to say about the Republican primaries, however...Because here is where Ron Paul's future will be decided. |
Couldn't he still run 3rd party?
I think you're safe in laying bets about the GOP nomination, but I don't think his influence necessarily ends there. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2007 9:00 pm Post subject: Re: ... |
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| Nowhere Man wrote: |
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| Too bad none of the above have anything at all to say about the Republican primaries, however...Because here is where Ron Paul's future will be decided. |
Couldn't he still run 3rd party?
I think you're safe in laying bets about the GOP nomination, but I don't think his influence necessarily ends there. |
There's been speculation of a Kucinich & Ron Paul ticket, but those two have so much ego between the two of them who knows who be the VP and Prez. Maybe they can govern as a dual Left-Right Presidency. When the Democrats get out of line, Ron Paul gets in their face, and when the Republicans are stonewalling, Kucinich could be released. HA! Its almost worth electing them for the ridiculousness. Oh, wait, I care about my country.
I think a Democrat candidate v Republican candidate v. Bloomberg v. Ron Paul would be fun. The electoral map would end up looking real blue by the end of the election.  |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2007 11:42 pm Post subject: |
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| ontheway wrote: |
| Actually, going down the list, all the odds look reasonable given the current facts, although Hillary's odds seem just a tad high. Looks like a good place to bet against Hillary. |
I think you mean too low. She was even money and 7-5 on a couple of other sites. |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2007 11:53 pm Post subject: Re: ... |
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| Nowhere Man wrote: |
| Quote: |
| Too bad none of the above have anything at all to say about the Republican primaries, however...Because here is where Ron Paul's future will be decided. |
Couldn't he still run 3rd party?
I think you're safe in laying bets about the GOP nomination, but I don't think his influence necessarily ends there. |
Oddly enough, on this site, RP is 14-1 just to get the nomination. While this may merely reflect different local betting patterns, I wonder if it could possibly be that he is more favored to win as an Independent.
On Blue Square, he is 10-1 for the nomination. There you can also bet on the winning party: Democrats 2-5, Republicans 7-4.
Last edited by bacasper on Fri Feb 01, 2008 7:44 am; edited 1 time in total |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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| Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2007 4:47 am Post subject: |
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| bacasper wrote: |
| ontheway wrote: |
| Actually, going down the list, all the odds look reasonable given the current facts, although Hillary's odds seem just a tad high. Looks like a good place to bet against Hillary. |
I think you mean too low. She was even money and 7-5 on a couple of other sites. |
No, I meant high. This site has her favored to win 3 to 1. (When you look you'll see that her numbers are written the reverse of the others. You bet $3 to win $1, unless that's a typo, they have her heavily favored to win.)
Having her at even money or favored 7 to 5 is about right. |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2007 5:28 am Post subject: |
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| ontheway wrote: |
| bacasper wrote: |
| ontheway wrote: |
| Actually, going down the list, all the odds look reasonable given the current facts, although Hillary's odds seem just a tad high. Looks like a good place to bet against Hillary. |
I think you mean too low. She was even money and 7-5 on a couple of other sites. |
No, I meant high. This site has her favored to win 3 to 1. (When you look you'll see that her numbers are written the reverse of the others. You bet $3 to win $1, unless that's a typo, they have her heavily favored to win.)
Having her at even money or favored 7 to 5 is about right. |
You're saying it backwards: she's 1-3 if you have to bet 3 to win 1. Anyway, that's definitely not good enough odds to risk my hard-earned cash. (Besides, I don't want her to win.) |
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