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stillnotking · Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Location: Oregon, USA

Hillary gave a speech today to the effect of "I'll see you in Texas!", which implies she really has not learned her lesson and is still swingin' for the fences (going after big states and neglecting little ones). It's a completely stupid strategy in a proportional-representation election.

So. Next week Obama wins Wisconsin, big, and Hawaii, bigger. The actual delegate totals he'll get from those states are nowhere near as important as the fact that he will then have won twelve states in a row since Super Tuesday, and he'll have two weeks to let this amazing streak soak into the national consciousness. Everybody loves a winner, and by the time March 4 rolls around, TX and OH will be tied. Hillary will maybe net 20 delegates from the two of them in a best-case scenario, and will lose VT and RI big the same day to cancel that out. At that point it will be completely obvious to everyone who counts that Hillary's campaign is done, that she will go into the convention at least 150 pledged delegates behind Obama. Therefore, the unpledged delegates will jump ship en masse and Hillary will get The Phone Call telling her to give up or be publicly humiliated. She'll give up.

All IMO of course. But I think that is by far the most likely scenario.

Kuros · Joined: 27 Apr 2004

cbclark4 · Joined: 20 Aug 2006 Location: Masan

Barack Obama

Pledged: 1096
Superdelegates: 157

Total: 1,253

Hillary Clinton
Pledged: 977
Superdelegates: 234

Total: 1,211

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/

bucheon bum · Joined: 16 Jan 2003

mithridates · Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 4:32 pm Post subject:

Kuros · Joined: 27 Apr 2004

Kuros · Joined: 27 Apr 2004

mithridates · Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 4:48 pm Post subject:

Ya-ta Boy · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994

Obama Voters Impact McCain, Too

http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/obamavotersimpactmccaintoo

I think we're seeing something of historic proportions. "...the scope and depth of his winning coalition. According to exit poll data, Obama prevailed in Virginia among while males, independents and young voters. In Maryland, he bested Clinton among rural voters, union households and catholic voters...The results also show the ways in which Obama is exerting a huge gravitational pull on both races. Obama is drawing so many moderates and independents to the Democratic race from what would normally be the ranks of the Republican electorate that 1) he's rolling up large margins and stitching together a broader coalition, and 2) he's making the Republican electorate comparatively smaller, and more conservative...Turnout, meanwhile, was up everywhere, just as it has been all along in the 2008 sweepstakes. More than 850,000 Virginians voted in that state's Democratic primary - more than twice the number that voted in the state's 2004 contest."

This may mean we're all going to have to learn the words to Streisand's version of 'Happy Days Are Here Again'.
Very Happy

stillnotking · Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Location: Oregon, USA

Kuros · Joined: 27 Apr 2004

Milwaukiedave · Joined: 02 Oct 2004 Location: Goseong

I think it's a reasonable assumption neither candidate will be able to get enough delegates even on March 4th. There is a huge time lapse between then and April 22nd (about six weeks). Then again, that's what happens when most of the states decide they are going to vote in Jan and Feb.

Many in Oregon are thankful the Oregon Legislature made the choice not to follow the other states.

Kuros · Joined: 27 Apr 2004

mithridates · Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 9:00 am Post subject:

Here are McCain vs. Clinton and McCain vs. Obama polls since the past year:

stillnotking · Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Location: Oregon, USA

Head-to-head polling doesn't mean much this far out. A better predictor of the race is simply to look at the dynamics that will drive it. First thing to keep in mind is that McCain is running, essentially, on Bush's platform, which gives him most of the disadvantages of incumbency and none of the advantages.

Also, he's 71 years old. I think the McCain-Dole comparisons may turn out to be quite apt. And McCain debating Obama? That's going to be like Old Man Potter debating George Bailey.

I see very little chance of the Republicans keeping the Presidency this year. Anything's possible, and it will be a long campaign, but I'd be shocked. Unless, of course, the Democrats nominate Hillary. (It's interesting to read right-wing blogs on the Dem primaries. The general feeling is "Are they crazy? Are they really considering nominating a Clinton instead of the most dynamic, fresh-faced, motivational candidate the party has produced in at least twenty years?")