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dirty_scraps83

Joined: 02 Jul 2007
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doc_ido

Joined: 03 Sep 2007
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Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 10:58 pm Post subject: |
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Even if military action is seriously considered, I'm not sure removing Mugabe and arming MDC supporters would be the wisest of moves (Iraq analogy, if the article author was drawing parallels: what would have happened if the US had removed Hussein and then armed anti-Bathists?).
My feeling is that an African-led UN peacekeeping force would be able to do the most long-term good, starting with free elections. This has (and hasn't) worked in the past, but it seems the best compromise between doing nothing (which wouldn't help Zimbabweans) and an invasion (which would kill a lot of people and generate a lot of bad feeling towards whoever did the invading).
What I think will actually happen is a lot of bluster in the Western press, a few sanctions and various buck-passing until Mugabe dies (or is taken out in a coup once conditions deteriorate even further and neighbouring countries close their orders to refugees) - he is 84, in a country with a life expectancy of 37. An invasion seems unlikely - Zimbabwe doesn't have any oil. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 11:25 pm Post subject: |
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An invasion here could work. Presumably Mugabe's support is very thin and the interventionists would be relieving the opposition from active violence and intimidation. But the invasion would have to relinquish responsibility to the opposition leaders pretty soon after.
Analogies to Iraq don't feel too helpful to me here. Likewise, China isn't going to do anything as long as they can continue to supply the next regime. Remember, China has penetration all over East Africa, it isn't just the oppressive states. |
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nautilus

Joined: 26 Nov 2005 Location: Je jump, Tu jump, oui jump!
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Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 4:12 am Post subject: |
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Its a job for the UN. Because they have the non-partisan authority. But they are utterly useless as always, declaring "We could never invade a sovereign state". What? Even if there is an illegal brutal regime in place? can someone please tell me what good the UN is? At least they should initiate a peacekeeping force to organise free elections and supervise a transfer of power.
invasion by Britain would be viewed as a return to colonialism. if it happened, ironically, they would be fighting the same war that they thwarted the Rhodesian security forces from doing 30 years ago.
So...I feel..ultimately..that nothing will be done and Zimbabwe will continue its return to a barren wasteland peopled by a few brutal animals surviving on a barter system.
The last option would be for MDC to find a sponsor willing to arm and train rebels that would also need accomodating in neighbouring countries like Botswana. You'd be looking at a prolonged war all over again. Nobody wants that or is prepared to go through that again, especially when at the moment it appears other options have not been properly tried yet.
There is a low-level under-the-radar genocide happening already, by stealth. ie..Mugabe or rather Zanu-PF generals have cut off food aid to those most in need, and so on. An all out Rwanda-style rampage would probably force britain to act, but if mugabe just keeps starving his people slowly he will get away with it. |
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nautilus

Joined: 26 Nov 2005 Location: Je jump, Tu jump, oui jump!
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Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 4:46 am Post subject: |
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| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
| just kill Mugage |
A few years ago I would have agreed with that but now its become obvious that its his entire party structure and generals that are not only the ones really in charge, but intent on keeping their power as long as possible.
ie kill/arrest Mugarbage, and Chiwenga/ Chihuri simply takes his place. |
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ReeseDog

Joined: 05 Apr 2008 Location: Classified
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Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 6:40 pm Post subject: |
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...and don't forget to plant the Union Jack in Pretoria as you blow through there encountering no resistance at all.
God save the Queen. |
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Join Me

Joined: 14 Jan 2008
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Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 6:47 pm Post subject: |
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| There would have to be a lot of oil in that country for "Bushy" to show any interest in adopting a few million starving black people. I don't see any invasion in the future. |
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nautilus

Joined: 26 Nov 2005 Location: Je jump, Tu jump, oui jump!
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Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 11:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Join Me wrote: |
| There would have to be a lot of oil in that country for "Bushy" to show any interest in adopting a few million starving black people. I don't see any invasion in the future. |
Britain has already adopted between half a million and 1 million Zimbabwean refugees
http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2008-03/2008-03-27-voa36.cfm
While South Africa has been forced to adopt up to 3 million
http://www.hrw.org/english/docs/2006/08/08/safric13923.htm
And lesser numbers have fled to other neighbouring countries as well as any number of other countries worldwide.
So Britain and S.Africa have the most reason to stage an armed intervention.
As Soon as the ANC gets rid of Mugabes old lifetime friend Mbeki and replaces him with Zuma....then the stage will be set. |
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dirty_scraps83

Joined: 02 Jul 2007
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Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 11:21 pm Post subject: |
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Could take the back door...
Exiles want NZ Army training
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/topic/story.cfm?c_id=231&objectid=10518778&ref=rss
| Quote: |
"My suggestion to Zimbabweans in the diaspora is that we should unite and seek practical approaches.
" Talk and talk and talk over talks will not get us anywhere. Mugabe and his junta will continue inflicting violence upon those who beg to err because they know we are harmless and powerless.
"My suggestion is: let's approach our host governments for military training so that we can go back and fight for freedom.
"If I could get training, I would not take another minute to think about it. It has to be done. If that costs my life, then let it be." |
need more than just the four guys from Nz though  |
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nautilus

Joined: 26 Nov 2005 Location: Je jump, Tu jump, oui jump!
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Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 11:30 pm Post subject: |
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| dirty_scraps83 wrote: |
Could take the back door...
Exiles want NZ Army training
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/topic/story.cfm?c_id=231&objectid=10518778&ref=rss
| Quote: |
"My suggestion to Zimbabweans in the diaspora is that we should unite and seek practical approaches.
" Talk and talk and talk over talks will not get us anywhere. Mugabe and his junta will continue inflicting violence upon those who beg to err because they know we are harmless and powerless.
"My suggestion is: let's approach our host governments for military training so that we can go back and fight for freedom.
"If I could get training, I would not take another minute to think about it. It has to be done. If that costs my life, then let it be." |
need more than just the four guys from Nz though  |
In the 60's & 70's countries were lining up to train and a | |