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The White Elephant in the Room

 
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If the missles start flying, what will you do?
I'm outta here, same day.
17%
 17%  [ 3 ]
I'll wait until my next payday, then I'm out.
5%
 5%  [ 1 ]
I'll finish my contract, then it's see later.
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Start making an exit plan, but wait and see.
5%
 5%  [ 1 ]
Go out and get drunk, see what the world looks like in the morning.
29%
 29%  [ 5 ]
Nothing, war won't happen here.
41%
 41%  [ 7 ]
Total Votes : 17

Author Message
Fredbob



Joined: 18 Nov 2005
Location: Yongin-Breathing the air-sometimes

PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 6:39 pm    Post subject: The White Elephant in the Room Reply with quote

What will you do if the US or Japan takes down that pesky little "satellite" Rolling Eyes ? I never thought it would get this far, but it really seems like NK has painted itself into a corner by misreading the situation. The US, SK and Japan seem pretty unified that there will be no concessions made in an attempt to allow NK a profitable alternative to launching, rather they seem to be upping the ante. It doesn't seem like anyone will shoot it while it's on the launch pad, but I have visions of 20 different interceptor missles being launched at the same time from 20 different places, that seems like a bad thing.

So, what will you do? I'm seriously considering packing the family up and heading back to the US. Am I just getting jittery?

I consider this general discussion because it involves a very serious aspect of living here.
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Straphanger



Joined: 09 Oct 2008
Location: Chilgok, Korea

PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 6:46 pm    Post subject: Re: The White Elephant in the Room Reply with quote

Fredbob wrote:
So, what will you do? I'm seriously considering packing the family up and heading back to the US. Am I just getting jittery?

FB, where ya been, man?

I've never considered you as reactionary, but here are the facts. If KJ1 has 10 TIMES the nuclear arsenal that the most liberal estimates claim he has, the maximum he can destroy is 10% of Seoul, which is a good start, but nothing for the rest of us to really worry about.

Be cool, brutha. How come you don't stop by the other place anymore?
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martinida



Joined: 24 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 7:01 pm    Post subject: A little perspective... Reply with quote

The U.S. (apparently) has 5 400 nuclear warheads, with global reach. They get the job done - ask Japan.
North Korea (may) have a handful of cobbled-together-in-a-Pyeongyang-back-street nuclear weapons with a missile delivery system so powerful and terrifying that they usually crash pointlessly into the East sea.
Bush and Cheney could have their finger on the button of 5 400, but Kim Jong-il can't have a couple?
C'mon, play fair...
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martinida



Joined: 24 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 7:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, no.
I'm not terrified by the attention-seeking of the poor-ass North Korea regime. The paranoid geeks just need a hug...
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Fredbob



Joined: 18 Nov 2005
Location: Yongin-Breathing the air-sometimes

PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 7:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Had a baby 2 months ago and I've been working 2 jobs, so I haven't been around anywhere much Very Happy .

It's not a matter of who would win, it's a matter of the various kinds of fallout which could occur, nuclear, economic, political....., the military aspect has been talked almost to death around here, talk is one thing, when missles start flying and those air raid sirens aren't just an annoyance, that's a reality I'm not sure I want to be around for.

I have a love/hate relationship with Korea, my being here isn't going to help or hurt the situation, so I'm thinking about just jetting, why take the risk? The money here is not that good, even for F2's Sad
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ChinaBoy



Joined: 17 Feb 2007

PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey, let's all see how many threads the OP can start about something that's already been talked about
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Yu_Bum_suk



Joined: 25 Dec 2004

PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 7:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm well out of range of the chemical and biological weapons threat, so unless I'm visiting Seoul or Incheon I won't be worried. It might turn out to be a very exciting time to be in Korea. Most foreigners will likely flee, so even though the won might be near worthless outside the country any experienced FTs left should have their pick of jobs.
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harlowethrombey



Joined: 17 Mar 2009
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 7:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We're all assuming the NK could even hit what they shot at. Lobbing a missle into the East Sea is one thing, but they've proven in the past they're not exactly the brightest bulbs on the tree.

Ensign Kim tried to take out Seoul, but accidentally launches into Eastern China.


And that's besides the fact that most of the soldiers in their army barely even have clothes that fit, let alone working equipment, gas for their tanks, ammunition, the list goes on.

Even if, worst case scenario, the North actually launches a nuke. . . they wont. It would be akin to commiting suicide. No matter how crazy they may seem, they love being in power so they're not going to do something that will result in their own inevitable destruction.

I am profoundly not worried.
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nosmallplans



Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Location: noksapyeong

PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 7:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Other.

I'd totally stick around and see what happens.
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oldtactics



Joined: 18 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 7:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not worried at all. My only concern with the whole situation is that I'm supposed to be going on an overnight trip to the DMZ at the end of April and I'm just crossing my fingers that they'll let us in.
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MrRogers



Joined: 29 Jun 2008

PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 7:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

fredbob wrote:

Quote:
Had a baby 2 months ago and I've been working 2 jobs, so I haven't been around anywhere much .

It's not a matter of who would win, it's a matter of the various kinds of fallout which could occur, nuclear, economic, political....., the military aspect has been talked almost to death around here, talk is one thing, when missles start flying and those air raid sirens aren't just an annoyance, that's a reality I'm not sure I want to be around for.

I have a love/hate relationship with Korea, my being here isn't going to help or hurt the situation, so I'm thinking about just jetting, why take the risk? The money here is not that good, even for F2's


I hear ya, fredbob, and I had the same gut feeling.

http://forums.eslcafe.com/korea/viewtopic.php?t=149485
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Straphanger



Joined: 09 Oct 2008
Location: Chilgok, Korea

PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 8:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fredbob wrote:
It's not a matter of who would win, it's a matter of the various kinds of fallout which could occur, nuclear, economic, political....., the military aspect has been talked almost to death around here, talk is one thing, when missles start flying and those air raid sirens aren't just an annoyance, that's a reality I'm not sure I want to be around for.

I have a love/hate relationship with Korea, my being here isn't going to help or hurt the situation, so I'm thinking about just jetting, why take the risk? The money here is not that good, even for F2's Sad

I'm not as concerned about nuclear fallout as economic. Basically all Hakwon teaching jobs would be suspended until further notice. Command and control over the ROK Army would revert to the USFK. The embassy would activate evacuation plans, but I would see no reason to follow an evacuation order when the entire thing, gate to wire, would be over in a week.

Then comes reunification. And that was just fine when the wall came down, they had enough cash money to make East German marks worth real money. But where's the money to provide social services for North Korea?

As for "why take the risk" you've got a lot more to risk than I do. Congrats on the baby, by the way. But think about it - you're a new father, of course you're going to think protectively about your family. But put it into perspective, and go hug the sprog. And let me know next time you're in Daegu, we'll get Capt Breakfast ahe head to a baseball game: http://bleacherbums.tubbee.com
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MrRogers



Joined: 29 Jun 2008

PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 10:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/26/world/asia/26korea.html?_r=1&hp


March 26, 2009
N. Korea Moves Missile to Launch Pad

By CHOE SANG-HUN

SEOUL, South Korea � North Korea has placed a long-range missile on a launch pad before a test that the United States, Japan and South Korea said would violate a United Nations Security Council resolution, a news report said Thursday.

Spy satellites detected what looked to be a Taepodong-2 missile in place Tuesday at the Musudan-ri launch site near North Korea�s northeastern coast, said Chosun Ilbo, South Korea�s leading daily, quoting an unidentified diplomatic source.

Once the rocket is installed on the pad, missile experts said, the North Koreans can technically launch it within three or four days � the time needed for the fueling of a three-stage rocket.

North Korea has said it would launch a rocket over Japan and the Pacific between April 4 and 8 to deliver an experimental communications satellite into orbit. But Washington, Tokyo and Seoul have said the launch is a cover for testing its Taepodong-2 ballistic missile. Both missions � the satellite and the ballistic missile � use the same rocket technology.

If North Korea successfully launches its rocket, it would demonstrate that the North has the technological skills to send up a missile that could travel as far as the western United States. Washington and its allies also consider North Korea�s missile program an additional threat because the North has sold missile technology to the Middle East and is developing nuclear weapons that could potentially be loaded on its missiles.

After North Korea detonated its first nuclear device in 2006, the Security Council adopted a resolution banning North Korea from further nuclear and missile tests.

Washington warned that it would seek punishment at the Security Council � probably more sanctions on the already isolated country � if it goes ahead with the planned launch. And Japan has vowed to press for new sanctions if the rocket is tested.

But North Korea warned this week that further sanctions would cause it to quit the so-called six-party talks. The United States, South Korea, Japan, China and Russia have been trying for years to persuade North Korea to dismantle its nuclear weapons programs in return for economic aid.

The North�s defiance is the first major test for President Obama in dealing with Pyongyang.

�We intend to raise this violation of the Security Council resolution, if it goes forward, in the U.N.,� U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Wednesday. �This provocative action in violation of the U.N. mandate will not go unnoticed, and there will be consequences.�

South Korea fears that a launch would raise military tensions, discouraging foreign investors away from South Korea amid a global recession. Seoul also favors punishing North Korea for a rocket launching.

Won Tae-je, spokesman for the South Korean Defense Ministry, declined to confirm the news report but said a launching would be �a serious challenge and provocation against the security on the Korean Peninsula and regional stability in Northeast Asia.�

A successful launch in the first week of April would give a timely boost to the domestic reputation of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il. The country�s parliament is scheduled to convene April 9 to re-elect him as leader.

Mr. Kim, 67, was reported to have suffered a stroke last August. His declining heath has raised questions about his grip on power and the future of his regime, where no clear successor has emerged.

Some U.S. officials, including Adm. Timothy Keating, the head of U.S. Pacific Command, have said the United States has a capability to knock down any North Korean missile heading for U.S. territory.

But such an intercept is highly unlikely, according to experts in Seoul, because Washington is trying to win the release of two television journalists North Korea recently detained. The North has charged them with illegally crossing the Chinese-North Korean border.
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nicam



Joined: 14 Jun 2008

PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2009 10:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

North Korea aint gonna do s*#@!
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